Capper's Corner

Welcome to Belmont 2024

We have 10 runners today and this year’s rendition sees a venue change to Saratoga as Belmont is down for repairs.

This is a major development as:

The distance has been reduced to one mile and one quarter which is a quarter mile less than the normal distance for this race.

Additionally the tighter turns at Saratoga replace the wider sweeping turns at Belmont.

What does it all mean…probably not much but I will be reducing reliance on distance pedigree due to the shorter race.

Here is how I break down the race:

I am going to toss the two horses who ran on derby day and Preakness day, as its really tough to perform at a high level in the 3^rd race in 5 weeks. SO Mystic Dan and Seize the Grey are downgraded.

Leaning against the two Pletcher outsiders in Antiquarian and Protective, as they seem a cut below and represent the barns 2^nd stringers. Protective has an outside chance to hit the board as a longshot as he had a tough trip in the Peter Pan. If this was a mile and a half I would probably upgrade both runners chances.

The Wine Steward is a gritty NY bred that always seem to show up but he may be a cut below these and I don’t think the stretch out in distance does him any favors. He does have a nice win over the track. But, leaning against.

And, that brings me to Mindframe….who epitomizes boom or bust outcomes. This is a tough call because I can see him winning by 6 or getting trounced, probably nothing in between. He is a buzz horse, hails from a good barn, and has tons of talent, so it would be dangerous to exclude this guy. But, I am probably leaning against even though it’s a tough call. This would only be his 3^rd start and he really beat a soft allowance field last time while setting comfortable fractions. In his debut, he was impressive and the speed fig was awesome but he got the perfect trip that day. To me it kind of feels like a sucker bet and the fact he is coming off Lasix gives me pause to back him at a short price, as he will be way overbet.

As far as race set up I don’t see much speed in the race on paper so that will benefit the front runners and speed did fairly well on the Friday card.

Advantage front runners and stalkers.

Which leads me to my top 2:

I am going to go Dornach (6 horse, 15-1 ML) here as I think his trip in Derby was brutal and has every right to bounce back today with his tactical speed advantage. Has tons of talent and he can be either on the lead or sit right off the 1 horse. He benefits the most with today’s reduced distance in the Belmont, from the normal distance.

My 2^nd choice is Resilience (2 horse, 10-1 ML) as he had showed signs of improvement in the Derby, making an 8 wide move on the final turn. He is definitely headed in the right direction since the blinkers were added and I really like the potential for a great trip, with tactical speed in 2^nd flight while saving ground. He will be pushing his limits for distance here but he is another that benefits from the distance reduction at Saratoga. Trainer is not one to take triple crown shots so part of the logic is putting faith in the connections and their level of confidence.

Rounding out the top 4:

Sierra Leone (9 horse, 9-5 ML) was a tough luck loser in the derby and gets a huge jockey upgrade today as Prat is the best rider in the country. May not get the dream set up with a slower pace today but overall he should be running late, and is the deserving favorite. Main danger to ruin our Belmont party.

And then to round out the super, Honor Marie (8 horse, 12-1 ML) can definitely clunk up for 4^th, and has an outside chance to blow up the board in a meltdown scenario. He had a terrible trip and gets a big jock upgrade. Has tons of hidden talent just needs a better trip and pace set up to make noise.

Wagering:

Big win bet on Dornach

Small win bet on Resilience

And lets box up a trifecta with the 4 runners – 2-6-8-9

Good Luck

Whitey

Looks like we have another watered-down Preakness field and if we are looking at this objectively, it is not a great betting race.

Muth was the ML favorite and he is SCRATCHED.

Along with his defection, the pace should be slower. The only speed horses left in the field are the Baffert horse, Imagination, and Just Steel.

Those two should hook up early, but will give the edge to Imagination to win the pace battle.

The best horse in the field is Mystik Dan who comes off a dream trip in the derby. He will be the deserving favorite.

The horse with an outside chance to ruin the party at a price is Uncle Heavy. He had a dreadful trip in the Wood as he broke slow and was wide that day when the rail was the place to be. I can see him running well, and with a top Jock on board, I envision he will ride the rails and hope to sneak through at the top of the lane if the pace falls apart. We won’t get the ML price of 20-1, but anywhere in the 10 or 12 to 1 range should be fair.

I will be treading lightly and live to fight another day, but for now, let’s do a small to medium win bet on the deuce, Uncle Heavy, and then will do a TRI BOX 2-5-9 – Uncle Heavy, Mystik Dan, Imagination.

Note, there is a decent chance of rain early in the day, and if we get any kind of rain past 4 pm then the track condition could be muddy or good.

That would actually help the 2 as he has two wins in the slop. If the track is wet I would advise doing an extra trifecta bet with the 2-5-8 box as the 8 would really move up in the off-going.

Good Luck

Ponycapper

Past Derby’s offer a window into lessons learned.

In the 2018 Derby, I had some degree of confidence that Justify and Good Magic would finish 1-2 but really had no idea on who would round out the 3^rd and 4^th spots.

I took a “SUPER” stab that day with Instilled Regard as a huge longshot to run 3^rd and used the all button for 4^th. The $17 ticket seemed like a long shot in its own right, and it turned out to be a losing ticket, but when it came out Justify, Good Magic, Audible and Instilled Regard, and paid 19K for a one dollar ticket, my lessons learned were:

1. The super is the way to go when you have a lock favorite to finish first because the payouts can be fairly “generous” even if the 2^nd choice finishes 2^nd.
2. And the All button is a great tool  to create value, especially when a nice longshot runs up for 4^th

So, keeping this in mind, and instead of taking stabs on win bets on other horses, lets throw in a super keying the favorite, with the all button used for 4^th and we will also go with the more traditional SUPER KEY.

I believe Fierceness is the best horse in the race and one scenario that makes the most sense to me is Fierceness extends his lead turning for home, crushing the hearts of the other front runners, and setting up the race for closers to come running late and clunk up for 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th. This assumes he breaks well and runs his “A” race.

The most obvious horse to run 2^nd would be Sierra Leone, as I think he is a monster horse.

So, we are looking at a pretty chalky exacta with 2-1 over 9-2, and perhaps that pays 50 bucks for a deuce.

Lets swing for the fences and try to turn superfecta dreams into reality with a few economical tickets.

For the ALL BUTTON SUPER, lets go with:

1. Fierceness
2. Sierra Leone
3. Honor Marie and Catching Freedom
4. ALL

This will cost $34

Ticket looks like:

$1 Super — 17 with 2 with 4-7 with ALL

Then let’s do a SUPER KEY

Here, we will key Fierceness up top and use 4 underneath

The 3 I like most are the ones listed above as all 3 should be closing. And, then lets throw in a bomb in Society Man who is absolutely loving the track at CD.

$1 Super Key:

• 17 with 2-4-7-20 with 2-4-7-20 with 2-4-7-20
• Cost is $24

If one of the above supers hits, perhaps we turn $58 bucks into 2K.

To recap from previous post:

Early Call on Derby 2024 Sign of Confidence (or donkey move)?

My top 3

Fierceness, Sierra Leonne, Honor Marie

DO TRI BOX with these 3 and then sprinkle in the supers noted above.

Good Luck

Ponycapper

Let’s try and parlay two well meant favorites in the Derby with some standouts in the OAKS to try and juice up the payouts, and make it back to back years of Oaks-Derby double success.

The two Oaks standouts for me are:

13 – Just FYI

11 – Ways and Means

Both of these horses would move way up on an off track and even on a dry track are still the main contenders and horses to beat in the 150^th running of the Oaks.

Just FYI’s return race in the Ashland last month was clearly a prep for today’s race as she was absolutely cold on the tote board in a suspect field. She raced wide all the way around the course and was 4-5 wide turning for home. There was an extreme rail and speed bias the first few days of the Keeneland meet and she was compromised on both fronts.

Just FYI has 2 Grade 1 wins on the resume including the Breeders cup last year. The horse moves way up on an off track as she has a win in the slop and has tremendous off track breeding.

Feels like 9-2 is a bit of a gift so perhaps the number is 7-2 come post.

Ways and Means had one of the worst Irad rides last time at GP. She made a 6 wide middle move in the race, a move that rarely works out or results in a victory. She did run well to finish 2^nd, and is one of the most talented fillies in the field. You can also make an argument that the race was a glorified prep with the Oaks being the target all along, and with a new pilot in Tyler G, I can see her having a great chance turning for home.

Some underneath horses to consider are the 5, Thorpedo Anna, and a longshot filly, the 10 Into Champagne.

My official Oaks order of finish predictions:

1. 13 – Just FYI
2. 11 – Ways and Means
3. 5 – Torpedo Anna
4. 10 – Into Champagne

So Lets play a weighted Oaks-Derby Double as follows:

Top choices:

Just FYI and Fierceness

2^nd choices

Ways and Means and Sierra Leone

Structure as follows:

• $25 double – Just FYI / Fierceness
• $15 double – Just FYI / Sierra Leone
• $15 double – Ways and Means / Fierceness
• $10 double – Ways and Means / Sierra Leone

If we connect, the $65 investment should net anywhere between $400 to $600 depending on the winning combo.

To me, this is a nice alternative for creating value if you are considering straight win bets on either of the two Derby favorites.

Good Luck !!

As of this writing, we are more than 3 weeks out from Derby 2024 and I am taking a different approach with an early post for this year’s Derby.

Primarily, the change in tactics is due to the fact that I have already made up my mind on the race, as there are two standouts that will likely be co-favorites and look like locks to hit the board, barring any late scratches or defections.

And secondly, there is a longshot I like to hit the board and would like to avoid paralysis by analysis, and risking changing my mind, or somehow thinking that a less than ideal post position or bad workout would change my mind.

And lastly, it’s safe to assume the “early call” is a sign of confidence. Or, possibly a donkey move in the worst case scenario. So, if you are an avid blog follower, double the bets because for the first time, let’s go on record well in advance and post this year’s derby TRIFECTA !!!

The three horses most likely to hit the board are:

1 – Fierceness – Smashing of winner of FLA Derby looked like a monster crushing his foes that day and he has an advantage of being forwardly placed, and avoiding trouble. In my mind, he is the most likely winner. Projected off odds (5-2).

2 – Sierra Leone – This horse was very impressive in the blue grass as he rallied from well of the pace when speed was holding all day, and the rail was the best place to be (he was wide). The 2.3 million purchase could give trainer Chad Brown his first Derby victory, but will need to work out a trip. Projected off odds (3-1).

3 – Honor Marie – I have been high on this horse since last fall and he will come into the race as a live longshot. The breeding is fantastic for the derby distance, and he absolutely loves it at Churchill, having notched 2 wins from 3 starts, including the KY Jockey club stakes. He ran a credible 2^nd in the LA Derby and is poised to take a giant leap forward on derby day. He will be my key horse in the exotics to hit the board underneath at a big price. Projected off odds (25-1).

In the event one of the 3 scratch before the race, my alternate selection will be:

Catching Freedom – Winner of the LA Derby has much underrated Constitution as his sire and Brad Cox should have him ready to run. Projected off odds (12-1)

Obviously no post position numbers yet but my wagers will look something like:

• BIG TRI BOX
  • Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
• Ex box
  • Fierceness, Honor Marie
  • Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
• Small win bet:
  • Honor Marie

Given that one of the two favorites are expected to win, I would tread lightly on win bets and look to capture value with the EX or TRI with Honor Marie, or any long shot that you might like.

Good Luck!!!

Ponycapper

Race 2

I like a lot:

11 – Mondego (10-1)

Comments:

I marked this one as a future turf star back in FEB but he has disappointed as of late. Still, I think this one may be primed for a big one in a field lacking pace. Maybe he tries to steal it.

Betting this one to win and place.

Predicted Order of Finish:

No clue, just betting the 11, maybe throw 6 and 7 in exacta box

Race 3 – Dirt Mile

I like a lot:

7 – Algiers (6-1)

************UPDATE SCRATCHED — NO PLAY*******

Comments:

Horse has banked 2.9 million on the dirt and it feels like the last was just a prep. He will have to beat the favorite Cody’s Wish, who may be vulnerable around two turns. Overall, feels like a watered down rendition with the scratch of practical move and not a ton of speed signed on.

I’ll play the 7 to win with a nice exacta box with the 3 Cody’s Wish

Predicted Order of Finish:

7 – Algiers ******SCRATCH*****

3 – Cody’s Wish

6 – Skippy Longstocking

UPdate

EX box 3-6

Race 4 – F&M TURF

Slight Lean:

1 – In Italian (4-1)

9 – Didia (8-1)

Comments:

Starting on the hill will benefit this mare as she can carry her speed further, in a field that lacks pace. If she can set a comfortable pace, she is the most likely winner.

My upset special horse is the 9, Didia. Could get the perfect set up laying off the pace and its hard to ignore that she is 9 for 11 lifetime on the turf, and likes it firm. She is a major Player and will be using in the multi race gimmicks. The best EURO looks to be the 6 Inspiral as she has banked 2.6 million and might be tough to beat. I also like a flyer in the 7 Lindy at 12-1 to hit the board. If she was 4 instead of 3 and had soft ground she would be tough. Still, can make noise late.

Win bet 1

Ex box 1-9

Predicted Order of Finish:

1 – In Italian

9 – Didia

6 – Inspiral

7 – Lindy

Race 5 – F&M SPRINT

Strong Opinion, but not great betting race, I like:

1 – Good Night Olive (6-5)

Comments:

BY far, the stand out of the day but I wont be using to win. I will look to single in the multi’s. She is a 7F dirt specialist and should beat this mediocre field. She is 8 for 11 lifetime and has beat some tough competition. Would love her more if she wasn’t on rail. I will try and make some money with my 2^nd choice running up into the exacta and that will be the 5 Kirstenbosch, who should really get a nice set up and the extra distance will definitely help her style. The addition of blinkers really helped two back. Outisde chance to upset but will play her in combination with the favorite in exactas. The 7 society is a main danger to wire the field as 2^nd choice if the 3 horse doesn’t try for the lead.

EX 1 – 5

Ex box 1-5

TRI Straight

1 with 5 with 7

1 with 5 with all

Saver win bet 5

Predicted Order of Finish:

1 – Good Night Olive

5 – Kirstenbosch

7 – Society

Race 6 – TURF MILE

No strong opinion, looks wide open, tread lightly, save bankroll for later

Slight lean to:

3 – Casa Creed

Comments:

Will be pace dependent but I like him rolling late to mow them all down. He is the best the US has to offer. Feels like the ML is inflated so don’t be surprised if he is 5-1 come post. MY longshot flyer in this race will be the 1 Shirl Speight who could hit the board at a massive price (30-1 ML). Johnny V jumps on and it feels like a ground saving trip will improve the chances. The 10 Songline (5-2) could be a tough customer from Japan and the most likely winner of the group of favorites. The 14 master of the seas drew a tough post but has a ton of talent and is a danger.

Treading lightly overall as EUROs dominate this race but will give a look to a small win bet on Casa Creed.

And a what the heck very small TRI Box – 1-3-10-14

Predicted Order of Finish:

3 – Casa Creed

10 – Songline

1 – Shirl Speight

14 – Master of the Seas

Race 7 – DISTAFF

Strong Opinion here, I like:

9 – Clairiere (4-1)

6 – Search Results (5-1)

Could be a wise guy horse and get bet down as it looks obvious on paper that she might get the best set up with all the speed signed on. Won’t be surprised if she is 5-2 come post but I do feel she has the best chance of winning, and is worth a hefty wager. The 6 Search results is capable on her best day and she can be tactical which may work to her advantage. If the pace is fast, don’t be surprised if the 7 Wet Paint runs a big one at 10-1. The set up will be ideal and will be running late to hit the board.

Win bet 9

Big EX BOX – 6-9

TRI BOX – 6-7-9

Predicted Order of Finish:

9 – Clairiere

6 – Search Results

7 – Wet Paint

Race 8 – TURF

I like:

8 – Up to the Mark (5-1)

Comments:

I think the extra distance helps here and I don’t think we have seen this ones true potential. Yes, the EUROs excel in this race but at a square price of 5-1 I will run to the windows and hope for the best. I will take a flyer with Japanese horse Shahryar (15-1) to blow up the exotics. Has banked over 8 million and is one of the best in Japan. He likes it firm too which adds to the intrigue. The 9 Mostahdaf (5-2) has the best chance of the EUROS and will use him defensively in exotics. A longshot that could hit the board is the 10 Adhamo (30-1) who is a Brown runner that is 3^rd off the layoff and has some good races last year that might make him a danger.

Win bet 8

Ex box 1-8

Small tri box – 1-8-9-10

Predicted Order of Finish:

8 – Up to the Mark

1 – Shahryar

9 – Mostahdaf

10 – Adhamo

Race 9 – Classic

Kind of feels like an all race as things might get crazy.

But, I will give a lean to:

8 – Ushba Tesoro (4-1)

Comments:

Winner of 7 of 8 and 9 million on the dirt feels like a stand out and offers tremendous value at 4-1. The Japanese runner could be boom or bust and perhaps it’s a sucker bet, as it may look too easy. If he doesn’t win, then I think its bombs away. The 5 Dermo Sotogake (20-1) was my derby pick and he hasn’t run since that dreadful performance. He fought through a foot issue which kept him on the sideline and I am not 100% sure he is fit and ready to go. Still, the talent is there and wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a big one. Another longshot with a great chance to hit the board is the 10 Dreamlike (30-1). This guy has yet to unleash his full talent and I have good feeling he will run a big one at a huge number. He would be my pick to win this race next year as he has all the makings of a horse who will get better with seasoning and age. The same connections won this race at SA with Vino Rosso and on talent, this one may not be too far behind, even though it doesn’t look as such on paper. The 13 Proxy may run decent and hit the board.

Overall, looks like a race with overhyped favorites and marginal 3 YOs running on reputation vs softer competition in their running lines.

Win bet 8

Small saver win bet 5

Ex box 5-8-10

TRI – I will key 8 with 5-10-13 with all

Predicted Order of Finish:

8 – Ushba Tesoro

5 – Dermo Sotogake

10 – Dreamlike

13 – Proxy

Race 10 – Turf Sprint

Good luck figuring this one out. I will hit the ALL button and move on. Feels like 8 horses can win and of those with a chance I like the 1,3,5,7, 14

Take the race off and enjoy the madness of a longshot crossing the wire first.

Race 11 – Sprint

Looks like a chalk fest to end the day and I wont be doing anything crazy. The 7 might wire the field in a paceless race. But will look to be alive with the 4 logicals here.

Predicted Order of Finish:

7 – Speed Boat Beach

8 – Elite Power

6 – The Chosen Vron

2 – Dr. Schievel

Astute blog followers know that the Belmont Stakes is my favorite race of the year as it usually presents great opportunities to make some cash.

We’ve had success over the years and the trend continued last year with the cold deck exacta.

Lets get right to the picks, and my top 4 predicted order of finish:

2 – Tapit Trice – 3-1: The ML seems low and I think we get 4-1 or better as tons of money will come in on Forte and Angel of Empire. The main mistake many cappers make is not being able to toss out a bad race and yes, he threw in a clunker in the Derby. But, all along, this one was being pointed to the Belmont and my hunch is he didn’t like the track at Churchill. But, probably the biggest reason I am on him is the grinding running style — he has that one pace style that favors the marathon Belmont runners and reportedly he has been working well on the track. Has the breeding for the distance by Tapit and stamina on the dam side. To me, the last was a toss, and I had him tabbed as my Belmont winner back in March, so I am not jumping ship at the last minute in a so-so Belmont field.  Only negative is the post draw as he doesn’t like the kick back but in a long race I can see Luis working his way to the outside down the long backstretch to mitigate. Lets take the lay up and the 10 dollar mutual return, and call it a day.

9 – Red Route One – 15-1: Doesn’t check many of the boxes I look for in a Belmont runner having raced a ton in 2023 and has that closing style that’s over-rated in the Belmont. But, as I dig deeper, and go back into the time machine of Belmont Lessons learned — He fits the profile of a Sir Winston – who I liked in the Belmont but didn’t pull the trigger as I was afraid the closing style would hurt him. Could be similar set up, where he is closer to the pace like he was in the Preakness, and explodes late. That’s exactly what Sir Winston did and he fits the same late pace profile – very strong late pace figs and the race set up that day like a turf race where the fastest finisher won. And to top it off, the pedigree is A++ for the distance. Gun Runner up top with stamina influences Tapit and Kris S on the dam side. And, we get Rosario in the saddle, the same jock who rode Sir Winston to victory in 2018.

6 – Forte – 5-2: Likely favorite was a late derby scratch with a foot issue. Probably the one to beat but coming off the layoff may be overbet. Not sure the running style works to his advantage with the uncertain pace scenario. But probably the biggest red flag for me is the breeding. I think the mile and a half is not in the wheel house, as Violence has the profile of a one turn miler as a sire. Yes, he has some stamina on the bottom with Blame but as the race favorite, there is no way I can pick this one on top with the question marks with pedigree, fitness, and running style. Could clunk up for 3^rd and that’s the way I’ll play him.

3 – Arcangelo – 8-1: Like the Peter Pan win but honestly the field was pretty weak, but he did look great doing it and loved the grit in the stretch. Breeding is good for the Belmont distance and I think he can get a share of the money here if the trip works out. Great underneath candidate.

Other runners:

The 1 looks to be a possible rabbit for his two stable mates. If he had Lasix on I might be intrigued as Ortiz is a master on front runners. I may be inclined to throw underneath on some tickets as he may hang around and hit the board, Big step up in class and not sure he is ready at this level but I still wouldn’t be surprised if he hit the board.

The 4 got a gift in the Preakness when the jock of coffeewithchris ceded the easy lead to him. He will take action at the window being a Baffert runner but I am not a fan of the win in the watered-down Preakness.

The 8 Angel of Empire will be way overbet here as the distance is not ideal with To Honor and Serve and Carson City on the bottom of the pedigree. I’ll be playing against as many Derby lovers will be coming back for an encore bet.

The 7 has all the makings of a wise guy horse who will take play. I am not really a fan but wouldn’t talk anyone off him.

The 5 doesn’t belong and may try to add some spice to the pace.

Wagering

Here is how I would spend 100 bucks

$60 to win 2

$10 saver to win on 9

$10 EX box 2-9

$2Tri box 2-9-6

Good Luck !!

****************UPDATE ***************

The 8 horse is scratched which changes the whole complexion of race and makes the race a pass for me….

The 8 was one of the favorites and we were keying him up top in the wagers.

Suggestion would be to save your money for the Belmont as now Mage becomes 3-5 and its tough to swallow that chalk ….

Anyone who needs actin bets can do the following

Small win bet 6 horse

$20 Ex straight – 3 with 6

$2 Superfecta – 3 with 6 with 2-5-7 with ALL

As they say…. We are on to Baltimore !!!!

Unfortunately, we have a watered-down field with only one Derby runner scheduled to compete.

Overall, this is a weak Preakness field, and I am not sure it sets up an ideal scenario for the handicapper trying to make a few bucks.

But, let’s try and squeeze a profit from the lemons we were dealt as we are riding a 3 leg Triple Crown winning streak dating back to last year’s Preakness.

Here is quick field analysis, followed by the approach to structure the tickets.

1 – National Treasure – 4-1: Looks like boom or bust horse to me with either the chance to wire the field or finish up the track. Baffert only 2 for 25 when re-adding blinkers to a horse and you have to think the trainers’ shenanigans are behind him, now that the jurisdictions are keeping a watchful eye. If he was 10-1, sure I would give him a look but the connections will depress the price and 4-1 or less is not fair value. Will lean against here and hope he doesn’t bring his “A” game.

2 – Chase the Chaos – 50-1:  Looks like an outsider on paper given his preference for the synthetic surface. Still, is well-rested, and perhaps an outside chance he can clunk up for 4^th and spoil superfecta dreams.

3 – Mage 8-5: Derby winner displayed tons of talent rallying from off the pace and shows up here on short rest. No doubt, the one to beat and the deserving favorite. Would not knock anyone who is singling this guy in the last leg of a pick 4 or pick 5. Main win contender.

4 – Coffeewithchris – 20-1: Likely pacesetter may find himself alone on the lead with soft fractions. In that scenario, perhaps he can hold on for 3^rd at best, but more than likely he is outclassed today and will give way mid-stretch.

5 – Red Route One – 10-1: His best chance of hitting the board is if a fast pace develops, which doesn’t seem likely to me. He looks like a one-run closer on paper and his best races have been in the slop. Using underneath and has all the makings of clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th scenario.

6 – Perform – 15-1: This will be the 8^th lifetime race for this guy and all were at different race tracks. So, we know he can travel. I really liked the Tesio where he rallied from no-mans-land behind a wall of horses to somehow get up for the win. Has an outside chance at an upset based on the intent of the connections, putting up the 150K supplement fee, and Shug is not a trainer that haphazardly takes a swing for the fences. Kind of oozes trainer confidence and I like that. Play underneath but maybe worth saver win bet.

7 – Blazing Sevens – 6-1: As a Chad Brown fan, and a guy who tabbed Early Voting as the Preakness winner last year, it gives me pause to have to knock this one out. He would need to take a significant step forward to pull off the upset and the 6-1 range is not fair value to partake in that adventure. Horse doesn’t have the talent of the trainer’s past Preakness winners in Early Voting and Cloud Computing, and seems like more of a one-turn miler who won’t appreciate the distance today.

8 – First Mission – 5-2: Talented Brad Cox colt might challenge for favoritism as he is quickly becoming all the rage in wise guy circles off the impressive performance in the Lexington. Lots to love here from a talent perspective and the Baffert horse he beat that day is pretty decent. This will be a major class test today and if he was facing 4 or 5 main rivals from the Derby I might be concerned. But, this is a marginal field, and he definitely fits and is a major contender to win.

My Official Predicted order of finish:

8 – First Mission – Love the post and the jock and trainer hit at 41%, and the most likely triple crown spoiler. Would consider a win bet on him at 5-2 or better but leaning towards keying him up top in the TRIs to get some value (likely will be 2-1 or less for win odds)

3 – Mage – Most talented horse in the field but the 2 week turnaround is only concern. Looks like a two horse race to me and I would be inclined to try and get some value with him singled in the Pick 4 or using underneath in tris and supers.

6 – Perform – Outside chance to crash the party with a good trip but is more likely an underneath play.

5 – Red Route One – Rosario’s best chance is to ride him like Sir Winston in the Belmont, closer to the pace and then try and unleash a late rally.

Wagering Suggestions – $110 budget

Looks like chalkfest so we need to call an audible for anyone trying to make a score…

The two favorites look like they tower over the field so let’s key on top in the exotics.

Risk adverse players can make a few bucks by betting the 8 to win.

Whatever happens, let’s save some cash for the Belmont !!!!!!

Win bet – $10 on 6 (saver, value bet)

Exacta bets – none

$2 Trifecta Key

8 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 = $12

$1 Trifecta Key

8 with 3-5-6 with 2-3-5-6-7 = $12

$2 TRI Box

3-6-8 = $12

$5 Superfecta

8 with 3 with 6 with 5 = $5

$5 Superfecta

3 with 6-8 with 6-8 with 5 = $10

$1 Superfecta

8 with 3-6 with 3-5-6 with ALL = $12

$2 Superfecta

8 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 = $12

$1 Superfecta

3 with 2-5-6-8 with 2-5-6-8 with 2-5-6-8 = $24

Good Luck !!!

Welcome to Derby 149…

Update…

We have 4 horses scratched as of Friday:

Skinner – 9

Practical Move – 10

Lord Miles – 19

Continuar – 20

Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero and King Russell draw in from AE.

So, 19 runners for the Derby.

Impact of a Fluke Last Year

Probably the biggest impact on this year’s Derby is….DEAD MONEY !!!

All of the buzz about an 80-1 shot winning last year will no doubt create a dead money scenario this year where people are reaching for the next derby fluke, which means greater value for the informed public. So, horses that should be 50-1 will be 35-1, etc., etc. And horses who should be 6-1 will go off at 8 or 10 to 1.  In addition to that, our boy Mattress Mack will be shoving 1.5 MM on the race favorite which means his 3-1 ML will turn into 2-1. If you like him, play him on top in other pools like Exacta and Trifecta to get the greatest value.

Pace

Pace looks to be honest as there is a mix of 4 or 5 horses who like to be on or near the lead. Overall, it feels like stalkers and mid-pack runners might have an advantage. The pace will be respectable – I don’t foresee a pace meltdown, nor do I see a pedestrian pace unfolding. Probably 46 and change for a half, 1:11 for three-quarters. Advantage to the runners with tactical speed and can lay close off the leaders. Most likely pace setter is Reincarnate. Friday’s card seemed to favor speed so that might not bode well for the closers.

ML ODDS

So, how did the ML oddsmaker do? Not great, but not terrible. The biggest blunder was Angel of Empire at 8-1. The betting public will be all over that and it wouldn’t surprise me if he is 2^nd choice leaving the gate at 5-1. If there is one certainty on derby day that would be this horse going off BELOW his ML odds. Just about every tom, dick, and harry capper is circling this horse as their top play. Other callouts: Verifying (15-1) will take play down to 11 or 12 to 1. Tapit Trice may drift up from his ML – No one is really talking about him so 5-1 ML could turn into 7-1 at post.

Wise guy Buzz

The biggest wise guy horse is Confidence Game after posting a brilliant workout this week. He will get bet off that 20-1. Two Phils seems to have some buzz even though he is late arrival to the track. People are loving that victory on the synthetic and inflated Beyer number. Disarm may take action as well. Looks good on track. Angel of Empire is everyone’s horse. Sure, he has the talent, but not sure the pedigree is ideal as his dosage is above 9, and I question the runners in the ARK Derby.

Post Draw Analysis

Probably the biggest post impact is a lot of the speed is drawn to the inside gates – Verifying, Confidence Game, Kingsbarns, Reincarnate are all within first 7 stalls. Jace’s Road is the other speed. Biggest negative draw is Tapit Trice who prefers not to be on the inside and will need to work out a trip from the 5 hole to get comfortable during the race. The biggest positive draws are Forte, who drew 15 and will aid his wide sweeping move; Derma Sotogake (17) who has tactical speed and has options heading into the first turn. I also like Two Phils post as he can work out a trip and save ground behind the speed on the first turn.

Top Picks

Here is my top 4 in order of preference:

17 – Derma Sotogake (10 -1) – Sure, this is a polarizing horse to say the least. Doubters will point to the UAE Derby as evidence the horse can’t win. To that, I say – NON-SENSE !! Sure, these UAE runners have a doughnut but when you look at back at the actual chances of these runners per their derby odds, only 1 horse – Mendelssohn – was single digits. Mendelssohn went off at 5-1 that day in 2018 and his race was over 5 seconds after the gates opened as he was pinballed around and broke near last and was racing in the slop, a surface he hated. The case for Derma Sotogake is simple: he almost shattered a track record in his last race. He was barely even touched in the race until the deep stretch. He had a high cruising speed in the race. There is tons of talent here and in addition, his running style and post should be an advantage. The jock can use his early speed to secure a spot near the leaders entering the first turn and if the pace is slow he can go to the lead. If the pace is hot he can sit back a flight or two. He has a tactical edge here as he is already won wire to wire and won coming from off the pace. And to top it off, the Japan runners have been firing all over the world. Another plus is that the pools in Japan are not co-mingled with the states pool so we will likely get the value in 8 to 10 to 1 range. I think he is the 2^nd best horse in the race, and we will likely get 4 times the favorite’s odds. To me, that’s value and would take that every day. My only concern might be the jock who really screwed the pooch last year when he took his horse into a suicidal pace. Lesson learned perhaps?

8 – Mage (15-1) – Talented Good Magic colt is light in seasoning but may be primed for a big race, assuming he can break well, something that has eluded him the last 2 races. Some would say that this horse should have been pointed to the Preakness as he might have been one of the favorites. And, I might be inclined to agree but the fact that they are pointing to this race tells me the connections have confidence. His last race in the Florida Derby was visually impressive as he went from last to first with a wide middle move but came up a length short to the Derby favorite. I have watched a ton of races at Gulfstream over the years and this is not a track that has many of these WOW middle moves and closing runs. The gallop out in that race was nice which may indicate the longer the distance the better. Many may avoid the horse due to the low-profile connections and I would say this trainer is underrated and knows how to get the most out of a horse in long races. In Venezuela, he learned from one of the best Trainers in the world in Laz Barrera. Overall, we have a talented colt here who should love the distance and if the break is clean, he should be able to secure a stalking trip necessary to be in the hunt late. Buyer beware though — this horse tends to break slow and spotting the field five lengths at the start or trying to rally from the back may be a tall order for a horse lacking experience.

15 – Forte (3-1) – Hard to knock this runner and I think he is the deserving favorite. One thing of concern for me is he might not get the pace he needs in front of him to set up his closing run. He has the talent to overcome this and a world-class jock but its possible the pace doesn’t materialize and perhaps the best he can do is clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th? Post draw works for him but a possible wide trip all the way around may not be ideal. Rumors of a leg/foot issue may be a concern as well.

5 – Tapit Trice (5-1) – Like the horse but not sure the inside post helps him. Kind of hoping he flounders today so I can play back in the Belmont at a square price as he has the grinding running style to take down the last leg of the Triple Crown. Still, if he can get to the outside he might be a danger late, and gut feeling is he drifts up in price, offering some value.

Did Anyone Say Pilot to Bombardier?

15 – Sun Thunder (50-1) — My longshot play for a top 4 finish will be a huge number on the tote board, but I think he might be in play for a big race. He was pace compromised in the LA Derby two back and had traffic problems. And rinse and repeat in the blue grass as he was shuffled on the turn and didn’t have the ideal pace set up. He is adding blinkers today which may indicate to me the connections want the horse more forwardly placed, which may work to his advantage. Call it a hunch but with a better trip and some more pace to work with, this underrated jockey can blow up the trifectas and supers.

Three horses draw in from AE – any thoughts?

Cyclone Mischief would have been better served waiting for the Preakness and doesn’t excite me. The Japan runner ran well in the SA Derby, but the field was on the weaker side, and I am not sure 10 furlongs is exactly in the wheel house of a son of Shanghai Bobby. Outside chance to hit the board. King Russell is eligible for NW1X allowance and appears overmatched.

Any longshots that can hit the board?

Disarm may improve with the added distance but will need a hot pace to make noise. Swami play is Kingsbarns – same day coronation in the UK can only help his chances.

Wagering Plays – Budget of 100 bucks

$40 win bet Derma Sotogake (17)

$25  win bet Mage (8)

$2 Exacta box – 17-8-15 = $12

$2 Tri Box – Same = $12

50 cent Trifecta

8-17 with 8-17-15-5-13 with 8-17-15-5-13 = $12

Best of luck to all !!!

Whitey

I will be on high alert today for possible bridge jumpers at Saratoga…

As we all are probably aware, the bridge jumper tries to make a quick 5% ROI by hammering the favorite in the show pool. What they probably don’t realize is that the bridge jumper bet is the worst bet in all of racing as they need to be right 19 out of 20 times just to break even. Profits can be made by playing against these guys as the show prices can be huge on the other runners if the favorite runs off the board.

I will be on the lookout for large sums of money in the show pool when the wagering opens in the pools. Anything over 500K or a million to open would be a red flag. Trying to get payouts of 10 15 or 20 bucks per horse on the show price for each runner.

The race in particular that I think where the favorite might be vulnerable is in the Test. (Race 9). Matareya is the ML 2-5 favorite.

There are two scenarios that might play out where she doesn’t hit the board…

1 – She drew the rail and there is tons of speed in the race and its possible she gets caught up in a speed duel and tires late. Its never ideal to be up against the rail when dueling. The 3,4,5, and 6 all have speed. Maybe one of them or a few hook up early with the favorite? Hopefully none of these horses scratch.

2- She doesn’t make the lead and it turns out she is more of a need the lead type. There are multiple horses in here with better pace numbers than her, and its quite possible that she never gets the lead in the race and is forced to do something that she may not be comfortable doing (coming from behind). She was able to successfully rate 2 back but as a 2YO she tried to rate in a G1 at Keenland and finished a disappointing 5^th. The comment was “toiled”.

Anyway, if I see the bridge jumpers out in force I will play it by betting $5 bucks to show on the other 6 runners for a total of 30. Most I can lose is just shy of 20 as two of the 6 bets will cash at 2.10.

I will also add some juice to the longshot runners with a decent chance to hit board.

The 4 Wish You Well is a talented Weaver runner with speed and I’m tossing the last with the bad break and slop. She could make the lead in the race and keep going.

The other two I will play are closers who might hit the board if the pace falls apart. These are the 2 and 7.

Will throw an extra 5 on each of these 3.

Note, this bet is only playable if bridge jumper money shows up. We need 10 15 20 25 dollar payouts for show prices in order for this to turn a profit. Its never advisable to bet horses to show and even worse to bet multiple horses to show as 5 and 6 dollar show prices will not do us any good. Translation, no bridge jumper money = no bet.

Good Luck