Capper's Corner

As of this writing, we are more than 3 weeks out from Derby 2024 and I am taking a different approach with an early post for this year’s Derby.

Primarily, the change in tactics is due to the fact that I have already made up my mind on the race, as there are two standouts that will likely be co-favorites and look like locks to hit the board, barring any late scratches or defections.

And secondly, there is a longshot I like to hit the board and would like to avoid paralysis by analysis, and risking changing my mind, or somehow thinking that a less than ideal post position or bad workout would change my mind.

And lastly, it’s safe to assume the “early call” is a sign of confidence. Or, possibly a donkey move in the worst case scenario. So, if you are an avid blog follower, double the bets because for the first time, let’s go on record well in advance and post this year’s derby TRIFECTA !!!

The three horses most likely to hit the board are:

1 – Fierceness – Smashing of winner of FLA Derby looked like a monster crushing his foes that day and he has an advantage of being forwardly placed, and avoiding trouble. In my mind, he is the most likely winner. Projected off odds (5-2).

2 – Sierra Leone – This horse was very impressive in the blue grass as he rallied from well of the pace when speed was holding all day, and the rail was the best place to be (he was wide). The 2.3 million purchase could give trainer Chad Brown his first Derby victory, but will need to work out a trip. Projected off odds (3-1).

3 – Honor Marie – I have been high on this horse since last fall and he will come into the race as a live longshot. The breeding is fantastic for the derby distance, and he absolutely loves it at Churchill, having notched 2 wins from 3 starts, including the KY Jockey club stakes. He ran a credible 2^nd in the LA Derby and is poised to take a giant leap forward on derby day. He will be my key horse in the exotics to hit the board underneath at a big price. Projected off odds (25-1).

In the event one of the 3 scratch before the race, my alternate selection will be:

Catching Freedom – Winner of the LA Derby has much underrated Constitution as his sire and Brad Cox should have him ready to run. Projected off odds (12-1)

Obviously no post position numbers yet but my wagers will look something like:

• BIG TRI BOX
  • Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
• Ex box
  • Fierceness, Honor Marie
  • Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
• Small win bet:
  • Honor Marie

Given that one of the two favorites are expected to win, I would tread lightly on win bets and look to capture value with the EX or TRI with Honor Marie, or any long shot that you might like.

Good Luck!!!

Ponycapper

Race 2

I like a lot:

11 – Mondego (10-1)

Comments:

I marked this one as a future turf star back in FEB but he has disappointed as of late. Still, I think this one may be primed for a big one in a field lacking pace. Maybe he tries to steal it.

Betting this one to win and place.

Predicted Order of Finish:

No clue, just betting the 11, maybe throw 6 and 7 in exacta box

Race 3 – Dirt Mile

I like a lot:

7 – Algiers (6-1)

************UPDATE SCRATCHED — NO PLAY*******

Comments:

Horse has banked 2.9 million on the dirt and it feels like the last was just a prep. He will have to beat the favorite Cody’s Wish, who may be vulnerable around two turns. Overall, feels like a watered down rendition with the scratch of practical move and not a ton of speed signed on.

I’ll play the 7 to win with a nice exacta box with the 3 Cody’s Wish

Predicted Order of Finish:

7 – Algiers ******SCRATCH*****

3 – Cody’s Wish

6 – Skippy Longstocking

UPdate

EX box 3-6

Race 4 – F&M TURF

Slight Lean:

1 – In Italian (4-1)

9 – Didia (8-1)

Comments:

Starting on the hill will benefit this mare as she can carry her speed further, in a field that lacks pace. If she can set a comfortable pace, she is the most likely winner.

My upset special horse is the 9, Didia. Could get the perfect set up laying off the pace and its hard to ignore that she is 9 for 11 lifetime on the turf, and likes it firm. She is a major Player and will be using in the multi race gimmicks. The best EURO looks to be the 6 Inspiral as she has banked 2.6 million and might be tough to beat. I also like a flyer in the 7 Lindy at 12-1 to hit the board. If she was 4 instead of 3 and had soft ground she would be tough. Still, can make noise late.

Win bet 1

Ex box 1-9

Predicted Order of Finish:

1 – In Italian

9 – Didia

6 – Inspiral

7 – Lindy

Race 5 – F&M SPRINT

Strong Opinion, but not great betting race, I like:

1 – Good Night Olive (6-5)

Comments:

BY far, the stand out of the day but I wont be using to win. I will look to single in the multi’s. She is a 7F dirt specialist and should beat this mediocre field. She is 8 for 11 lifetime and has beat some tough competition. Would love her more if she wasn’t on rail. I will try and make some money with my 2^nd choice running up into the exacta and that will be the 5 Kirstenbosch, who should really get a nice set up and the extra distance will definitely help her style. The addition of blinkers really helped two back. Outisde chance to upset but will play her in combination with the favorite in exactas. The 7 society is a main danger to wire the field as 2^nd choice if the 3 horse doesn’t try for the lead.

EX 1 – 5

Ex box 1-5

TRI Straight

1 with 5 with 7

1 with 5 with all

Saver win bet 5

Predicted Order of Finish:

1 – Good Night Olive

5 – Kirstenbosch

7 – Society

Race 6 – TURF MILE

No strong opinion, looks wide open, tread lightly, save bankroll for later

Slight lean to:

3 – Casa Creed

Comments:

Will be pace dependent but I like him rolling late to mow them all down. He is the best the US has to offer. Feels like the ML is inflated so don’t be surprised if he is 5-1 come post. MY longshot flyer in this race will be the 1 Shirl Speight who could hit the board at a massive price (30-1 ML). Johnny V jumps on and it feels like a ground saving trip will improve the chances. The 10 Songline (5-2) could be a tough customer from Japan and the most likely winner of the group of favorites. The 14 master of the seas drew a tough post but has a ton of talent and is a danger.

Treading lightly overall as EUROs dominate this race but will give a look to a small win bet on Casa Creed.

And a what the heck very small TRI Box – 1-3-10-14

Predicted Order of Finish:

3 – Casa Creed

10 – Songline

1 – Shirl Speight

14 – Master of the Seas

Race 7 – DISTAFF

Strong Opinion here, I like:

9 – Clairiere (4-1)

6 – Search Results (5-1)

Could be a wise guy horse and get bet down as it looks obvious on paper that she might get the best set up with all the speed signed on. Won’t be surprised if she is 5-2 come post but I do feel she has the best chance of winning, and is worth a hefty wager. The 6 Search results is capable on her best day and she can be tactical which may work to her advantage. If the pace is fast, don’t be surprised if the 7 Wet Paint runs a big one at 10-1. The set up will be ideal and will be running late to hit the board.

Win bet 9

Big EX BOX – 6-9

TRI BOX – 6-7-9

Predicted Order of Finish:

9 – Clairiere

6 – Search Results

7 – Wet Paint

Race 8 – TURF

I like:

8 – Up to the Mark (5-1)

Comments:

I think the extra distance helps here and I don’t think we have seen this ones true potential. Yes, the EUROs excel in this race but at a square price of 5-1 I will run to the windows and hope for the best. I will take a flyer with Japanese horse Shahryar (15-1) to blow up the exotics. Has banked over 8 million and is one of the best in Japan. He likes it firm too which adds to the intrigue. The 9 Mostahdaf (5-2) has the best chance of the EUROS and will use him defensively in exotics. A longshot that could hit the board is the 10 Adhamo (30-1) who is a Brown runner that is 3^rd off the layoff and has some good races last year that might make him a danger.

Win bet 8

Ex box 1-8

Small tri box – 1-8-9-10

Predicted Order of Finish:

8 – Up to the Mark

1 – Shahryar

9 – Mostahdaf

10 – Adhamo

Race 9 – Classic

Kind of feels like an all race as things might get crazy.

But, I will give a lean to:

8 – Ushba Tesoro (4-1)

Comments:

Winner of 7 of 8 and 9 million on the dirt feels like a stand out and offers tremendous value at 4-1. The Japanese runner could be boom or bust and perhaps it’s a sucker bet, as it may look too easy. If he doesn’t win, then I think its bombs away. The 5 Dermo Sotogake (20-1) was my derby pick and he hasn’t run since that dreadful performance. He fought through a foot issue which kept him on the sideline and I am not 100% sure he is fit and ready to go. Still, the talent is there and wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a big one. Another longshot with a great chance to hit the board is the 10 Dreamlike (30-1). This guy has yet to unleash his full talent and I have good feeling he will run a big one at a huge number. He would be my pick to win this race next year as he has all the makings of a horse who will get better with seasoning and age. The same connections won this race at SA with Vino Rosso and on talent, this one may not be too far behind, even though it doesn’t look as such on paper. The 13 Proxy may run decent and hit the board.

Overall, looks like a race with overhyped favorites and marginal 3 YOs running on reputation vs softer competition in their running lines.

Win bet 8

Small saver win bet 5

Ex box 5-8-10

TRI – I will key 8 with 5-10-13 with all

Predicted Order of Finish:

8 – Ushba Tesoro

5 – Dermo Sotogake

10 – Dreamlike

13 – Proxy

Race 10 – Turf Sprint

Good luck figuring this one out. I will hit the ALL button and move on. Feels like 8 horses can win and of those with a chance I like the 1,3,5,7, 14

Take the race off and enjoy the madness of a longshot crossing the wire first.

Race 11 – Sprint

Looks like a chalk fest to end the day and I wont be doing anything crazy. The 7 might wire the field in a paceless race. But will look to be alive with the 4 logicals here.

Predicted Order of Finish:

7 – Speed Boat Beach

8 – Elite Power

6 – The Chosen Vron

2 – Dr. Schievel

Astute blog followers know that the Belmont Stakes is my favorite race of the year as it usually presents great opportunities to make some cash.

We’ve had success over the years and the trend continued last year with the cold deck exacta.

Lets get right to the picks, and my top 4 predicted order of finish:

2 – Tapit Trice – 3-1: The ML seems low and I think we get 4-1 or better as tons of money will come in on Forte and Angel of Empire. The main mistake many cappers make is not being able to toss out a bad race and yes, he threw in a clunker in the Derby. But, all along, this one was being pointed to the Belmont and my hunch is he didn’t like the track at Churchill. But, probably the biggest reason I am on him is the grinding running style — he has that one pace style that favors the marathon Belmont runners and reportedly he has been working well on the track. Has the breeding for the distance by Tapit and stamina on the dam side. To me, the last was a toss, and I had him tabbed as my Belmont winner back in March, so I am not jumping ship at the last minute in a so-so Belmont field.  Only negative is the post draw as he doesn’t like the kick back but in a long race I can see Luis working his way to the outside down the long backstretch to mitigate. Lets take the lay up and the 10 dollar mutual return, and call it a day.

9 – Red Route One – 15-1: Doesn’t check many of the boxes I look for in a Belmont runner having raced a ton in 2023 and has that closing style that’s over-rated in the Belmont. But, as I dig deeper, and go back into the time machine of Belmont Lessons learned — He fits the profile of a Sir Winston – who I liked in the Belmont but didn’t pull the trigger as I was afraid the closing style would hurt him. Could be similar set up, where he is closer to the pace like he was in the Preakness, and explodes late. That’s exactly what Sir Winston did and he fits the same late pace profile – very strong late pace figs and the race set up that day like a turf race where the fastest finisher won. And to top it off, the pedigree is A++ for the distance. Gun Runner up top with stamina influences Tapit and Kris S on the dam side. And, we get Rosario in the saddle, the same jock who rode Sir Winston to victory in 2018.

6 – Forte – 5-2: Likely favorite was a late derby scratch with a foot issue. Probably the one to beat but coming off the layoff may be overbet. Not sure the running style works to his advantage with the uncertain pace scenario. But probably the biggest red flag for me is the breeding. I think the mile and a half is not in the wheel house, as Violence has the profile of a one turn miler as a sire. Yes, he has some stamina on the bottom with Blame but as the race favorite, there is no way I can pick this one on top with the question marks with pedigree, fitness, and running style. Could clunk up for 3^rd and that’s the way I’ll play him.

3 – Arcangelo – 8-1: Like the Peter Pan win but honestly the field was pretty weak, but he did look great doing it and loved the grit in the stretch. Breeding is good for the Belmont distance and I think he can get a share of the money here if the trip works out. Great underneath candidate.

Other runners:

The 1 looks to be a possible rabbit for his two stable mates. If he had Lasix on I might be intrigued as Ortiz is a master on front runners. I may be inclined to throw underneath on some tickets as he may hang around and hit the board, Big step up in class and not sure he is ready at this level but I still wouldn’t be surprised if he hit the board.

The 4 got a gift in the Preakness when the jock of coffeewithchris ceded the easy lead to him. He will take action at the window being a Baffert runner but I am not a fan of the win in the watered-down Preakness.

The 8 Angel of Empire will be way overbet here as the distance is not ideal with To Honor and Serve and Carson City on the bottom of the pedigree. I’ll be playing against as many Derby lovers will be coming back for an encore bet.

The 7 has all the makings of a wise guy horse who will take play. I am not really a fan but wouldn’t talk anyone off him.

The 5 doesn’t belong and may try to add some spice to the pace.

Wagering

Here is how I would spend 100 bucks

$60 to win 2

$10 saver to win on 9

$10 EX box 2-9

$2Tri box 2-9-6

Good Luck !!

****************UPDATE ***************

The 8 horse is scratched which changes the whole complexion of race and makes the race a pass for me….

The 8 was one of the favorites and we were keying him up top in the wagers.

Suggestion would be to save your money for the Belmont as now Mage becomes 3-5 and its tough to swallow that chalk ….

Anyone who needs actin bets can do the following

Small win bet 6 horse

$20 Ex straight – 3 with 6

$2 Superfecta – 3 with 6 with 2-5-7 with ALL

As they say…. We are on to Baltimore !!!!

Unfortunately, we have a watered-down field with only one Derby runner scheduled to compete.

Overall, this is a weak Preakness field, and I am not sure it sets up an ideal scenario for the handicapper trying to make a few bucks.

But, let’s try and squeeze a profit from the lemons we were dealt as we are riding a 3 leg Triple Crown winning streak dating back to last year’s Preakness.

Here is quick field analysis, followed by the approach to structure the tickets.

1 – National Treasure – 4-1: Looks like boom or bust horse to me with either the chance to wire the field or finish up the track. Baffert only 2 for 25 when re-adding blinkers to a horse and you have to think the trainers’ shenanigans are behind him, now that the jurisdictions are keeping a watchful eye. If he was 10-1, sure I would give him a look but the connections will depress the price and 4-1 or less is not fair value. Will lean against here and hope he doesn’t bring his “A” game.

2 – Chase the Chaos – 50-1:  Looks like an outsider on paper given his preference for the synthetic surface. Still, is well-rested, and perhaps an outside chance he can clunk up for 4^th and spoil superfecta dreams.

3 – Mage 8-5: Derby winner displayed tons of talent rallying from off the pace and shows up here on short rest. No doubt, the one to beat and the deserving favorite. Would not knock anyone who is singling this guy in the last leg of a pick 4 or pick 5. Main win contender.

4 – Coffeewithchris – 20-1: Likely pacesetter may find himself alone on the lead with soft fractions. In that scenario, perhaps he can hold on for 3^rd at best, but more than likely he is outclassed today and will give way mid-stretch.

5 – Red Route One – 10-1: His best chance of hitting the board is if a fast pace develops, which doesn’t seem likely to me. He looks like a one-run closer on paper and his best races have been in the slop. Using underneath and has all the makings of clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th scenario.

6 – Perform – 15-1: This will be the 8^th lifetime race for this guy and all were at different race tracks. So, we know he can travel. I really liked the Tesio where he rallied from no-mans-land behind a wall of horses to somehow get up for the win. Has an outside chance at an upset based on the intent of the connections, putting up the 150K supplement fee, and Shug is not a trainer that haphazardly takes a swing for the fences. Kind of oozes trainer confidence and I like that. Play underneath but maybe worth saver win bet.

7 – Blazing Sevens – 6-1: As a Chad Brown fan, and a guy who tabbed Early Voting as the Preakness winner last year, it gives me pause to have to knock this one out. He would need to take a significant step forward to pull off the upset and the 6-1 range is not fair value to partake in that adventure. Horse doesn’t have the talent of the trainer’s past Preakness winners in Early Voting and Cloud Computing, and seems like more of a one-turn miler who won’t appreciate the distance today.

8 – First Mission – 5-2: Talented Brad Cox colt might challenge for favoritism as he is quickly becoming all the rage in wise guy circles off the impressive performance in the Lexington. Lots to love here from a talent perspective and the Baffert horse he beat that day is pretty decent. This will be a major class test today and if he was facing 4 or 5 main rivals from the Derby I might be concerned. But, this is a marginal field, and he definitely fits and is a major contender to win.

My Official Predicted order of finish:

8 – First Mission – Love the post and the jock and trainer hit at 41%, and the most likely triple crown spoiler. Would consider a win bet on him at 5-2 or better but leaning towards keying him up top in the TRIs to get some value (likely will be 2-1 or less for win odds)

3 – Mage – Most talented horse in the field but the 2 week turnaround is only concern. Looks like a two horse race to me and I would be inclined to try and get some value with him singled in the Pick 4 or using underneath in tris and supers.

6 – Perform – Outside chance to crash the party with a good trip but is more likely an underneath play.

5 – Red Route One – Rosario’s best chance is to ride him like Sir Winston in the Belmont, closer to the pace and then try and unleash a late rally.

Wagering Suggestions – $110 budget

Looks like chalkfest so we need to call an audible for anyone trying to make a score…

The two favorites look like they tower over the field so let’s key on top in the exotics.

Risk adverse players can make a few bucks by betting the 8 to win.

Whatever happens, let’s save some cash for the Belmont !!!!!!

Win bet – $10 on 6 (saver, value bet)

Exacta bets – none

$2 Trifecta Key

8 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 = $12

$1 Trifecta Key

8 with 3-5-6 with 2-3-5-6-7 = $12

$2 TRI Box

3-6-8 = $12

$5 Superfecta

8 with 3 with 6 with 5 = $5

$5 Superfecta

3 with 6-8 with 6-8 with 5 = $10

$1 Superfecta

8 with 3-6 with 3-5-6 with ALL = $12

$2 Superfecta

8 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 = $12

$1 Superfecta

3 with 2-5-6-8 with 2-5-6-8 with 2-5-6-8 = $24

Good Luck !!!

Welcome to Derby 149…

Update…

We have 4 horses scratched as of Friday:

Skinner – 9

Practical Move – 10

Lord Miles – 19

Continuar – 20

Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero and King Russell draw in from AE.

So, 19 runners for the Derby.

Impact of a Fluke Last Year

Probably the biggest impact on this year’s Derby is….DEAD MONEY !!!

All of the buzz about an 80-1 shot winning last year will no doubt create a dead money scenario this year where people are reaching for the next derby fluke, which means greater value for the informed public. So, horses that should be 50-1 will be 35-1, etc., etc. And horses who should be 6-1 will go off at 8 or 10 to 1.  In addition to that, our boy Mattress Mack will be shoving 1.5 MM on the race favorite which means his 3-1 ML will turn into 2-1. If you like him, play him on top in other pools like Exacta and Trifecta to get the greatest value.

Pace

Pace looks to be honest as there is a mix of 4 or 5 horses who like to be on or near the lead. Overall, it feels like stalkers and mid-pack runners might have an advantage. The pace will be respectable – I don’t foresee a pace meltdown, nor do I see a pedestrian pace unfolding. Probably 46 and change for a half, 1:11 for three-quarters. Advantage to the runners with tactical speed and can lay close off the leaders. Most likely pace setter is Reincarnate. Friday’s card seemed to favor speed so that might not bode well for the closers.

ML ODDS

So, how did the ML oddsmaker do? Not great, but not terrible. The biggest blunder was Angel of Empire at 8-1. The betting public will be all over that and it wouldn’t surprise me if he is 2^nd choice leaving the gate at 5-1. If there is one certainty on derby day that would be this horse going off BELOW his ML odds. Just about every tom, dick, and harry capper is circling this horse as their top play. Other callouts: Verifying (15-1) will take play down to 11 or 12 to 1. Tapit Trice may drift up from his ML – No one is really talking about him so 5-1 ML could turn into 7-1 at post.

Wise guy Buzz

The biggest wise guy horse is Confidence Game after posting a brilliant workout this week. He will get bet off that 20-1. Two Phils seems to have some buzz even though he is late arrival to the track. People are loving that victory on the synthetic and inflated Beyer number. Disarm may take action as well. Looks good on track. Angel of Empire is everyone’s horse. Sure, he has the talent, but not sure the pedigree is ideal as his dosage is above 9, and I question the runners in the ARK Derby.

Post Draw Analysis

Probably the biggest post impact is a lot of the speed is drawn to the inside gates – Verifying, Confidence Game, Kingsbarns, Reincarnate are all within first 7 stalls. Jace’s Road is the other speed. Biggest negative draw is Tapit Trice who prefers not to be on the inside and will need to work out a trip from the 5 hole to get comfortable during the race. The biggest positive draws are Forte, who drew 15 and will aid his wide sweeping move; Derma Sotogake (17) who has tactical speed and has options heading into the first turn. I also like Two Phils post as he can work out a trip and save ground behind the speed on the first turn.

Top Picks

Here is my top 4 in order of preference:

17 – Derma Sotogake (10 -1) – Sure, this is a polarizing horse to say the least. Doubters will point to the UAE Derby as evidence the horse can’t win. To that, I say – NON-SENSE !! Sure, these UAE runners have a doughnut but when you look at back at the actual chances of these runners per their derby odds, only 1 horse – Mendelssohn – was single digits. Mendelssohn went off at 5-1 that day in 2018 and his race was over 5 seconds after the gates opened as he was pinballed around and broke near last and was racing in the slop, a surface he hated. The case for Derma Sotogake is simple: he almost shattered a track record in his last race. He was barely even touched in the race until the deep stretch. He had a high cruising speed in the race. There is tons of talent here and in addition, his running style and post should be an advantage. The jock can use his early speed to secure a spot near the leaders entering the first turn and if the pace is slow he can go to the lead. If the pace is hot he can sit back a flight or two. He has a tactical edge here as he is already won wire to wire and won coming from off the pace. And to top it off, the Japan runners have been firing all over the world. Another plus is that the pools in Japan are not co-mingled with the states pool so we will likely get the value in 8 to 10 to 1 range. I think he is the 2^nd best horse in the race, and we will likely get 4 times the favorite’s odds. To me, that’s value and would take that every day. My only concern might be the jock who really screwed the pooch last year when he took his horse into a suicidal pace. Lesson learned perhaps?

8 – Mage (15-1) – Talented Good Magic colt is light in seasoning but may be primed for a big race, assuming he can break well, something that has eluded him the last 2 races. Some would say that this horse should have been pointed to the Preakness as he might have been one of the favorites. And, I might be inclined to agree but the fact that they are pointing to this race tells me the connections have confidence. His last race in the Florida Derby was visually impressive as he went from last to first with a wide middle move but came up a length short to the Derby favorite. I have watched a ton of races at Gulfstream over the years and this is not a track that has many of these WOW middle moves and closing runs. The gallop out in that race was nice which may indicate the longer the distance the better. Many may avoid the horse due to the low-profile connections and I would say this trainer is underrated and knows how to get the most out of a horse in long races. In Venezuela, he learned from one of the best Trainers in the world in Laz Barrera. Overall, we have a talented colt here who should love the distance and if the break is clean, he should be able to secure a stalking trip necessary to be in the hunt late. Buyer beware though — this horse tends to break slow and spotting the field five lengths at the start or trying to rally from the back may be a tall order for a horse lacking experience.

15 – Forte (3-1) – Hard to knock this runner and I think he is the deserving favorite. One thing of concern for me is he might not get the pace he needs in front of him to set up his closing run. He has the talent to overcome this and a world-class jock but its possible the pace doesn’t materialize and perhaps the best he can do is clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th? Post draw works for him but a possible wide trip all the way around may not be ideal. Rumors of a leg/foot issue may be a concern as well.

5 – Tapit Trice (5-1) – Like the horse but not sure the inside post helps him. Kind of hoping he flounders today so I can play back in the Belmont at a square price as he has the grinding running style to take down the last leg of the Triple Crown. Still, if he can get to the outside he might be a danger late, and gut feeling is he drifts up in price, offering some value.

Did Anyone Say Pilot to Bombardier?

15 – Sun Thunder (50-1) — My longshot play for a top 4 finish will be a huge number on the tote board, but I think he might be in play for a big race. He was pace compromised in the LA Derby two back and had traffic problems. And rinse and repeat in the blue grass as he was shuffled on the turn and didn’t have the ideal pace set up. He is adding blinkers today which may indicate to me the connections want the horse more forwardly placed, which may work to his advantage. Call it a hunch but with a better trip and some more pace to work with, this underrated jockey can blow up the trifectas and supers.

Three horses draw in from AE – any thoughts?

Cyclone Mischief would have been better served waiting for the Preakness and doesn’t excite me. The Japan runner ran well in the SA Derby, but the field was on the weaker side, and I am not sure 10 furlongs is exactly in the wheel house of a son of Shanghai Bobby. Outside chance to hit the board. King Russell is eligible for NW1X allowance and appears overmatched.

Any longshots that can hit the board?

Disarm may improve with the added distance but will need a hot pace to make noise. Swami play is Kingsbarns – same day coronation in the UK can only help his chances.

Wagering Plays – Budget of 100 bucks

$40 win bet Derma Sotogake (17)

$25  win bet Mage (8)

$2 Exacta box – 17-8-15 = $12

$2 Tri Box – Same = $12

50 cent Trifecta

8-17 with 8-17-15-5-13 with 8-17-15-5-13 = $12

Best of luck to all !!!

Whitey

I will be on high alert today for possible bridge jumpers at Saratoga…

As we all are probably aware, the bridge jumper tries to make a quick 5% ROI by hammering the favorite in the show pool. What they probably don’t realize is that the bridge jumper bet is the worst bet in all of racing as they need to be right 19 out of 20 times just to break even. Profits can be made by playing against these guys as the show prices can be huge on the other runners if the favorite runs off the board.

I will be on the lookout for large sums of money in the show pool when the wagering opens in the pools. Anything over 500K or a million to open would be a red flag. Trying to get payouts of 10 15 or 20 bucks per horse on the show price for each runner.

The race in particular that I think where the favorite might be vulnerable is in the Test. (Race 9). Matareya is the ML 2-5 favorite.

There are two scenarios that might play out where she doesn’t hit the board…

1 – She drew the rail and there is tons of speed in the race and its possible she gets caught up in a speed duel and tires late. Its never ideal to be up against the rail when dueling. The 3,4,5, and 6 all have speed. Maybe one of them or a few hook up early with the favorite? Hopefully none of these horses scratch.

2- She doesn’t make the lead and it turns out she is more of a need the lead type. There are multiple horses in here with better pace numbers than her, and its quite possible that she never gets the lead in the race and is forced to do something that she may not be comfortable doing (coming from behind). She was able to successfully rate 2 back but as a 2YO she tried to rate in a G1 at Keenland and finished a disappointing 5^th. The comment was “toiled”.

Anyway, if I see the bridge jumpers out in force I will play it by betting $5 bucks to show on the other 6 runners for a total of 30. Most I can lose is just shy of 20 as two of the 6 bets will cash at 2.10.

I will also add some juice to the longshot runners with a decent chance to hit board.

The 4 Wish You Well is a talented Weaver runner with speed and I’m tossing the last with the bad break and slop. She could make the lead in the race and keep going.

The other two I will play are closers who might hit the board if the pace falls apart. These are the 2 and 7.

Will throw an extra 5 on each of these 3.

Note, this bet is only playable if bridge jumper money shows up. We need 10 15 20 25 dollar payouts for show prices in order for this to turn a profit. Its never advisable to bet horses to show and even worse to bet multiple horses to show as 5 and 6 dollar show prices will not do us any good. Translation, no bridge jumper money = no bet.

Good Luck

The Belmont Field is all set for Saturday (6:49 post) and we will look to keep the momentum going off of a profitable Preakness.

Astute followers of this blog know that I have been capping the final jewel of the Triple Crown for a long time. And, if I am being honest, this year’s rendition looks like one of the easier and straight-forward selections in quite some time.

Let’s unpack that…

On the one hand, we have Todd Pletcher who comes into the Belmont with a stellar record (3 wins and many 2^nd place finishes) and with two aces up his sleeve:

• Mo Donegal is the likely race favorite, and winner of the Wood Memorial who was flattered when the Wood runner up came back to score in the Preakness. Mo has tons of talent and is my early pick to take down this year’s Breeders Cup Classic in NOV.
• Nest is a really nice filly, with a great Belmont profile, and who is 4 for 6 lifetime including a Grade 1 win, and has banked over 850K to date

On the other hand, we have:

• A very vulnerable ML favorite (We The People) who comes off an impressive win in the Peter Pan over a very suspect field, and which came over a wet sealed track, a condition he won’t see today.
• A derby winner, who is dubbed in many circles labeled as a fluke, and who got a dream trip to take the roses at 80 to 1.
• And then lastly, except for Creative Cause, the remaining runners look like a mediocre group (at best) who haven’t done much to date and are taking a swing hoping to hit the board and earning a decent check

Add it all up and my takeaway is….against this weak field, Todd Pletcher looks to have this race cornered with two superstars. Assuming we take the Pletcher plunge, and invest in his runners, then the $64,000 question becomes —- Will we be laughing and cashing our tickets like Billy Ray Valentine did when he cornered the Orange Juice market in the movie Trading Places, or will we be ripping up our tickets in agony, despair and disgust like Randolph and Mortimor Duke did on the trading floor?

Let’s hope it’s the former…

With all that out of the way, let’s get right into it with a quick snapshot of the field, and some initial commentary:

1 – We the People – 2-1: Peter Pan winner demolished a weak field and now is returning as the race favorite??? This horse is the biggest boom or bust candidate on the entire Belmont card. While many will be backing him, I say “not so fast”. Will probably be 2^nd choice in wagering come post time.

2 – Skippylongstocking – 20-1: May have needed the Preakness, but I am not sure he has the talent to upset this field. His best chance would be an off track, as his sire Exaggerator loved the slop, and his offspring have shown a strong affinity for wet tracks. May show more early speed today.

3 – Nest – 8-1 – Tons of talent here and the lone filly in the field is a contender vs. a field of mediocre colts. Trainer sprung the Belmont filly upset with Rags to Riches when she beat the mighty Curlin in the 2007 Belmont running.

4 – Rich Strike – 7-2: Sprung a shocker in Louisville and is well rested for his return race. Reportedly, has been working well at the track and will hope for a fast pace to set it for his late kick.

5 – Creative Minister – 6-1: Ran a credible third in the Preakness and has tactical speed in here to get a nice trip. Has the best breeding in the field for the Belmont distance.

6 – Mo Donegal – 5-2: Likely to take money and might go off around 8-5. Comes out of the Derby as an also ran with a less-than-ideal trip that day. The most talented horse in the field is the main danger in today’s race.

7 – Golden Glider – 20-1: 2^nd place finisher in Peter Pan gets a free entry / automatic qualifier for the Belmont so it’s no surprise the connections entered. Looks to be a cut below the main contenders and would need to show improvement for a chance.

8 – Barber Road – 10-1: Looks to be a wise guy horse coming in, which is a bit of surprise as he went post-ward in the Derby at 60-1. Might have a chance to hit the board with the jockey switch and blinkers off, but not high on his chances for the win spot.

Belmont Options

Here are the 4 possible ways to play the Belmont, as I see it, and a look at my preference:

Option 1 – If you think that We the People will be lone speed, and is the best horse in the field, then you will get 5-2 or 3-1 come post time. I am against We the People as my notes and lessons learned (from my database) point me to discounting horses with flattering or inflated Beyer speed figures on wet sealed tracks. I also think his previous races were against very marginal competition at Oaklawn and the runners in those races haven’t come back to do much. Not to mention that the Peter Pan looked like a glorified allowance race as the race favorite that day was coming off a maiden win. There is a case to make that We the People will win by 6 or run up the track and finish off the board. I am taking a stand against this one, though I wouldn’t fault anyone for drinking the kool-aid off of the visually impressive Peter Pan. Note, the Peter Pan is three eights a mile shorter than the Belmont, and not sure the pedigree is there on the dam side to get the distance. VERDICT: Pass (and not including anywhere)

Option 2 – You missed the boat on Rich Strike on Derby Day and are convinced that race was not a fluke, so you want to back him today. I am against this horse as a win bet (I missed the wedding so why go to the funeral). In my view, this is a nice horse who appreciated the surface switch to the dirt and I think it was smart to skip the Preakness. I can’t see taking 7-2 on this horse off one good race, but I do think he is bred for the distance and will be rolling late to grab a share of the exotics. VERDICT: Include underneath

Option 3 – Bet the best horse in the field – Mo Donegal – and take the short odds of 8-5. I was a big fan heading into the Derby and the Trainer has proven the Derby to Belmont path with 3 winners and a boat load of 2^nd place finishers over the years. This horse is well rested, bred for the Belmont distance, and beat the talented Preakness winner in the Wood. Lots to love….except the odds. VERDICT: Pass on win bet, include underneath and perhaps do a Superfecta saver with him on top to get some value.

Option 4 – Take the Pletcher value play (Nest) who will be a viable alternative and offers wagering value in the win pool. Yes, makes sense. This would be my recommendation and the below analysis has the details on the logic for backing this horse. The other value play would be Creative Minister if you are not a Nest fan. VERDICT: Bet the value play (below)

Predicted Order of Finish

3 – Nest – 8-1 – The filly is the value play, though we might lose some as she might go off at 5 or 6 to 1. The three main questions: Does she have the talent? Does she have the breeding for the distance? Will she get the trip? All three are “yes”. The connections have always thought highly of this filly nominating her for the triple crown with the Belmont in mind back in January. Her speed figures fit, and she comes off a nice 2^nd place effort in the Oaks. On that day, she was held up behind horses, and briefly blocked on the turn, as Secret Oath got the jump on her. She was running late that day and the gallop out was really nice. The breeding on her is spectacular for the Belmont by Curlin out of an AP Indy mare, so the distance should not be an issue. But, probably the biggest reason I am on her is the fractions in the Belmont are likely to mimic what she saw in the Ashland Stakes, with 24, 48 and change, and 113. She was mid pack that day and pounced on the turn, and was barely touched late, indicating she had so much left in the tank against a bunch of talented fillies. (I encourage everyone to watch the Ashland replay). I see her getting a similar trip in the Belmont, being tactically placed on the rail in 2^nd or 3^rd flight behind the pacesetters and making a move turning for home. This is a similar trip Jose Ortiz – today’s jock – rode to victory with Tapwrit in the 2017 Belmont. Overall, there are tons to like, and the trainer knows how to get his horses ready for this unique race. In my view, the 2022 filly class was better on a relative scale to their male counterparts and there is no reason to think that this talented filly doesn’t fit with this mediocre group of colts. And to boot, she gets a 5-pound weight allowance, and has the grinding running style that often wins the Belmont.

6 – Mo Donegal – 5-2 (likely 8-5 post time) – The son of Uncle Mo couldn’t work out the trip in the Derby but comes into this well rested and poised to run a big one. Doubters might question his ability to close into a soft pace. To that I say, Sir Winston in 2019 had the same kind of running style. A dead closer who was facing soft fractions. I marked that as a lesson learned and my takeaway was that sometimes the Belmont Stakes are run like turf marathon races. Slower paces and the horse with the ability to finish fast has a great chance to win. Sir Winston was much closer to the pace that day because of the slower fractions and turning for home unleashed his late kick (like a monster turf horse does) to take the money at 10-1. I see something similar in store for Mo Donegal. He won’t be as far back, and he does have the ability to unleash a powerful finish. If Mo was 3-1 I would be all over him for a win bet, but I can’t back him at the suppressed price, as we are losing too much value. He is a must include in all exotics and the main danger to all challengers. I recommend him as the key horse up top in a superfecta saver, to get some value in the event he wins.

5 – Creative Minister – 6-1 – If you want to know who the best horse for the Belmont distance is then  let me introduce you to Creative Minister. Giants Causeway on top and Tapit on the bottom. Dosage of 1.91 confirms this thesis. I thought his Preakness run was decent and there is a chance he moves forward off that effort and will appreciate the extra distance. I do like his chances to hit the board as he could get the trip stalking off the speed and get first run on the closers. On the downside, he is making his 3^rd start in 5 weeks so the rest coming in is not ideal. Overall, though, I will be including in the exotics as he has a great chance to hit the board at anywhere from 6 to 8 to 1.

4 – Rich Strike – 7-2 – Here is another well-bred horse for the distance, as he is by Keen ice out of a Smart Strike Mare. For me, I really do think that skipping the Preakness improves his chances in the Belmont, even though it wasn’t a popular decision in the public’s eye. In my view, the colt has talent, the derby wasn’t a fluke in retrospect, and I think he has a good chance to run 3^rd or 4^th. On the downside, there is a case to be made he is a horse for course at CD and will be pace compromised today. I’ll split the difference and say he is running late to grab a share.

Wagering Preferences

• Big Win bet – Nest
• Exacta Box Nest and Mo Donegal
• Tri Box – Nest, Mo Donegal and Creative Minister
• Super Saver (Mo up top) –6 With 3-5 with 3-4-5 with ALL

Weather Update

The rain system is expected to stay south for the race, so I am expecting a fast track. If it’s wet you can move up Skippy who might have a chance to hit the board. Mo Donegal also moves way up on an off track as he has tons of off-track pedigree on both sides.

Good Luck to all !!!!

Whitey

A field of 9 is set to run in the 2022 Preakness, with post time at 7 PM.

The main story line I am following is one that probably is an after-thought for most cappers…and that is…. THE HEAT !!

With an expected high temperature of 96 degrees and real feel of 105 with the humidity, we may have another round of pari-mutuel chaos in the 2^nd leg of the Triple Crown.

The record high for Preakness day was 98 degrees set in 1962, when Greek Money won by a long nose at 9-1. Those who backed him that day had an extra sweat as they had to survive a frivolous objection by the runner up.

How will the near-record heat impact the race today?

No one knows for sure, but I would guess that the fresh horses might have an advantage, as well as the horses with a home base in Florida.

Let’s break down the race…

Race Favorite

In 2019, I predicted that the race favorite, Improbable, wouldn’t hit the board and I was correct. Am I predicting a similar fate for Epicenter?

YES !!!

But for a different reason. Improbable was a terrible favorite based on the figs and I thought the race coming back in 2 weeks was not ideal for him. For Epicenter, I think there are two scenarios:

• Scenario 1 – He is the real deal and a special horse. He circles horses on the trun and goes on to cruise to an easy 5 length win at even money over a pretty average Preakness field.
• Scenario 2 – He takes his run at the leaders on the turn and hits the proverbial wall, fininshing up the track.

While both are plausible and I would argue each has an equal chance of happening (which is a contrarian view to the public’s) I am leaning towards Scenario 2, and that’s how I am approaching this year’s race. If it happens, then we have a chance to make some cash. If not, we turn the page, and look to the Belmont.

Here is my rational for the Epicenter flop:

• I wasn’t enamored with him pre-derby, and believe he faced sub-par competition in the LA preps
• He got an absolute dream trip in the derby and couldn’t close the deal
• He is coming back in 2 weeks, which is something he has never done before – most of the rest between races has between 4 and 6 weeks
• This will mark the 6^th start this year
• And probably the most important reason, his derby run was extremely taxing as he was under a drive for most of the stretch
• Oh, and one more wildcard….the hot weather, which in combination to all the above, could spell disaster

Bottom line…if I was part of the ownership group I would be asking:

What the hell are we doing running in this race?

The more prudent approach would be to skip this one and point to the Belmont and Haskell with an eye towards the Travers. A flop here turns all that upside down and he will be lucky to make the Haskell.

My Top 2 Preakness Runners:

5 – Early Voting 7-2

The trainer Chad Brown was an under-study to hall of famer Bobby Frankel. The one thing Frankel did extremely well was pointing a horse to a specific race. I think Brown had this race picked out from the get-go and he was wise to pass on the derby. Early Voting is a lightly raced horse with only 3 career starts. He appears to be coming in fresh, as he is coming into this off a runner up placing in the Wood, which was 6 weeks ago. Early Voting has a ton of early speed and will be the likely pace-setter. I don’t see a whole lot of early speed in the race and its possible the pace may be soft. This would bode well for his chances to wire the field. Overall, there is tons of talent here, and I am a big believer in the ability of the trainer to have him set up for a big race. In 2017, he and the same ownership group (which is highly underrated) took Cloud Computing to the Preakness and they came away with the victory. With a ton of money expected to come in on the Filly, I can see the price drifting up and its possible the odds float up to 9-2 by post time, which would enhance the appeal.

2 – Creative Minister – 10-1

Here is another lightly raced horse with tons of talent. The connections ponied up 150K to supplement him for the race, which is a sign of confidence. His race on the derby undercard was pretty impressive,  and a step forward off that effort could land him in the exacta. I can see him saving ground and making one late run turning for home. The extra distance will suit him based on the stellar breeding. He may have the feel of a wise guy horse, but in this case, I think there is more merit then hype.

Best of the Rest

4 – Secret Oath – 9-2 –

Filly with lots of talent will garner support on race day and will likely go off as 2^nd choice. I did bet her in her win at CD in the Oaks and she got an absolute dream trip. I don’t blame the connections for taking on the boys as she likely fits with this mediocre crop of colts. For me, its not a question of talent, but more of circumstance, as this will be her 6^th race this year and I am not sure she is one of the fresher runners in today’s race. She is a must use in the exotics but way too short a price to trust up top given the uncertainties of a filly facing the boys and the quick turn-around.

8 – Epicenter – 6-5

Likely 4 to 5 or even money come post time. As I referenced above, he is very vulnerable in this spot and I probably wouldn’t bet him if he was 3-1. Would suggest using underneath but I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished out of the money.

9 – SkippyLongstocking – 20-1

Here is a flyer to include in your exotics. Is eligible to improve with the freshening since the Wood and he might be able to close for a slice of the exotics. The 3^rd place in the Wood was probably better than it looked as he was wide turning for home and had the look of a horse that needed the race. One extra bonus — His home base is Florida and is highly accustomed to the heat, which may give him an edge with the temps soaring near 100.

Here is how I will play it

• Win bet 5 horse
• Ex box – 2-5
• Tri Box – 2-4-5-9

Good Luck to all

My Full card Preakness analysis and selections are below….

Race 1

This is a wide open and great betting race…

There are two possible scenarios that are most likely to happen…

Scenario 1

• The 6 or the 8 spring out to the lead and never look back. The problem is both are a short price and may not be worth a win bet.
• The 8 may be cheap speed stepping up which is a little risky, and the 6 is piloted by Saez and will no doubt be gunning for the lead early.

Scenario 2

• In scenario 2, they both wear each other out and it sets it up for the closer.
• Who that closer will be is anyone’s guess but I lean towards the 1 horse to pick up the pieces in this scenario.
• They key for this horse is the trainer change and it’s a sign of confidence that he steps up in class.

So here is how I will play it:

• Win bet 1 horse
• Ex box 1-4
• And then I will do a TRI KEY to account for scenario 1 and play it like: 6-8 with 1-4 with 6-8-1-4-7

Race 2

Another wide open race but this one is an absolute crapshoot as the jocks might determine the outcome.

There is tons of speed signed on here so I am leaning toward a closer.

The speed parade includes the likes of:

The 1A (who might scratch), The 3 horse, The 5 horse, and the 8 horse

And we can probably toss the 9 horse who is stretching out from sprints, though this might be dangerous to do so.

So that leaves the 2, who looks to be the class of the field, but may be more of a one turn type and is unproven at Pimlico. He is first off claim for good trainer and lures Paco who has 2 wins in 3 chances with this trainer.

The 4 looks like a longshot and has done his best running vs state-bred company but lures the meets top Jock, who is white hot.

The 1 looks solid here and won the Tesio at the track last year but was DQ’d.

The 6 can close for a share and loves the Pimlico surface.

Here is how I will play it

• I will roll with the 2 horse in the win bet, as he already won at this condition already and is in for the tag for eligibility. Paco may get best trip saving ground from mid pack.
• And follow it up with an exacta box 1-2
• And Tri box 1-2-6

Race 3

If we can beat the favorite here then that would be nice. We will tread lightly as the favorite looks tough.

Nevertheless, these maiden turf races often produce prices and we will try and reel one in here.

The horse that interests me the most is the 8 Airspeed Velocity. In his debut sprinting he ran into a monster Clement runner who has since won 2 stakes races. In his next start he was bet at Keenland and had tons of trouble at the start. He has been training on woodchips and the trainer can have him ready today. The grass breeding is excellent.

The 4 horse is the favorite and is adding Lasix and stretching out. The other horses who may be worth looking at are the:

• 6 who is a Motion runner who is well bred for the turf and is coming off a layoff.
• And the 5 horse who draws Rosario and the trainer does well adding blinkers

Play it as:

• Win bet 8
• Ex box – 5-6-8
• Tri box 4-5-6-8

Race 4

Here is a fun race to handicap…and will make this one of my best bets of the day….

I am tossing the race favorite – the 4 horse – as I have seen this movie before. MDN race blowout win. Stakes race blow out win. Now steps up in class and will be facing horses way better than the previous races. I can’t back that kind of horse, especially as the race favorite.

The 6 and 7 both are interesting, but their prices are short and while I prefer the 7 slightly over the 6 and I am going in a different direction and hope for a speed duel.

I’m going to take a swing with the 2 with Jose Ortiz and hope the speed duel sets it up for him. He is coming off a grade 1 effort vs Jackie’s Warrior and the speed figs from previous races are among the tops in field. He checks all of the right boxes with class, running style and trip set up today and let’s hope he takes to the Pimlico surface.

Play it:

• Big Win bet 2
• Ex box 2-7
• TRI BOX – 2-4-7

Race 5

This is a terrible betting race so we will tread lightly…

On paper looks like a 2 horse race between the 2 and 4. The key to the race is that someone will have to go with the 4 early or its lights out.

I think the 2 has a legit chance to win at a short price.

My longshot to hit the board would be the 1 who encountered trouble in last and the trainer is firing on all cylinders.

Play it:

• Lets go win bet 2
• Ex box – 1-2
• Tri box 1-2-4

Race 6

Looks like a great betting race with a few price possibilities…

Many of these horses have limited turf starts.

The 11 is the likely favorite and has improved since taking off the blinkers. The post draw is not ideal.

The 7 may be overlooked somewhat coming off the layoff and beating MDN claimers in last. She really has a nice breeding for the turf.

The 4 horse has been a money burner at GP and will likely hit the board but won’t win

The 2 longshots with appeal are

• The 5 horse who might be better served in a STR allowance but I really like the breeding and he outran her odds on the Turf at GP
• I also like the 3 to run a big race at a big number. With any kind of pace, she can hit the board.

Overall not much pace in the race and a horse like the 5 may try and steal it on the lead. The 7 looks like a sneaky live horse here and may be worth using.

No real opinion here but will playing some combination of 7-5 up top

Maybe a TRI KEY

5-7 with 3-4-5-7-11 with 3-4-5-7-11

Race 7

This is a pass race for me as just about every horse has a chance.

Hit the all button if playing the pick 3 or sit this one out

Race 8

This is a terrible betting race and would likely just play the pick 3 with the 4 best horses:

3-6-4-1

Race 9

Tons of speed in this competitive sprint.

Has the makings of a race bound to fall apart late and a closer to take the money.

The 1,2,3,5, and 9 all have speed

The 1 and 5 look to be one dimensional speed types and will be among the favorites.

I’m against the 1 big in this one due to post draw and the speed to his outside may be a problem.

The 5 scares me a bit as looks like a freak. If left uncontested may wire the field.

We will plan for a contested pace and lets go with the scenario that none of the speed horses will be around late…

So I say Chuck em Out !!

The main danger to me is the 9 horse as he draws outside and has options to sit off the pace.

But the value play based on odds is the 8 horse who should be flying late.

I also like the 6 horse who can close late, and may be dangerous on cut back

Play it as:

• Win bet 9
• Ex box 8-9
• Ex box 6-8-9
• Tri box 5-6-8-9

Race 10

Another fun race to unravel…

There are a lot of horses stretching out and the pace is likely to be quick.

I am always leery of the young horses stretching out around 2 turns on turf and showing an ability to ration their speed.

I will take a flyer on the 4 horse. He checks a lot of boxes:

• Back class from 2 yo campaign
• Nice prep race off layoff
• Should get inside trip off the pace and can save ground
• The turf breeding is really nice – on the dam side (hidden) you have Red Ransom and Kingmambo to go along with strong pedigree with Malibu Moon and the sire side is strong too.

The 5 is the deserving favorite and might be tough to beat.

The 8 horse intrigues me a bit as he has nice turf breeding and ran into trouble only time on turf while bet.

The 10 horse is bred well and may get a stalking trip.

Play it as:

• Win bet 4
• Ex box 4-5-8
• Tri Box 4-5-8-10

Race 11

Not a big fan of this race as the ML oddsmaker did a good job as the 3 favorites look to be the most likely winner

The 8 horse would probably be my top pick of those 3

The 1 and 5 have a good chance and may prefer the 1 over the 5 due to two turb experience and the 5 coming off maiden win stretching out.

The longshot to throw in the mix is the 2 horse. Tons of talent and if he can get the trip he might be dangerous.

6 has punchers chance if the pace is hot. Lasix in last may have helped.

Play it as:

• Win bet 8
• TRI Key – 8 with 1-2-6-8
• Tri box – 1-2-6-8

Race 12

Not a great betting race so maybe you do some pick 3’s

The 2 and 3 are the most likely winners

Th 9 has a shot as well

Include 2-3-9 in pick 3’s

Welcome to the 2022 Run for the Roses.

We will take another swing at the first leg of the Triple Crown…and hope for the best. With 20 horses signed on, often luck and trip are deciding factors.

Let’s get right to the story lines surrounding this year’s running…

The Field

This looks to be the most competitive Derby field in several years, with two luke-warm favorites and a bunch of horses that come into the race with respectable form. Legitimately, you could probably make a case for 10 -12 horses and there isin’t a ton of separation in overall talent-level. From a handicapping perspective, this could be a fun exercise, and a refreshing change from the stand-outs and overwhelming favorites that have become the new normal in recent years.

The Pace

It looks like early pace could be faster than normal, and contentious, given that there are at least 6 or 7 horses with a fair amount of early speed in the field. I am guessing 46 for the half and 110.4 for the three quarters. This could set it up for the mid pack runners, as well as the closers.

The Weather

The Weather for the Derby itself looks okay but there will be downpours on Friday. There is a small chance the system doesn’t clear out until SAT afternoon so we may see a shower or two early in the day on SAT. I am going to handicap for a fast track knowing that the grounds crew will do everything in their power to have fast conditions.

Anyone capping the Friday Oaks should plan for a sloppy track.

Let’s break down the field…

Pretenders:

These are the horses that don’t seem to fit on paper:

2 – Happy Jack – 30-1: Seems like a stretch for this one to hit the board, considering only has 1 win and hasn’t contended in the stakes races. Toss.

4 – Summer is Tomorrow – 30 – 1: UAE shipper will be a pace presence and can’t see this longshot hanging around late. Toss.

11 – Pioneer of Medina – 30 -1: Hasn’t really been a major factor in the preps and might be a race rabbit to help the closers. Toss.

14 – Barber Road – 30 – 1: Rallied vs weaker in many of the Arkansas races and would really need a pace collapse just to hit the board.

20 – Ethereal Road – 30 – 1: Nice pedigree but hasn’t done much in the preps. Likely a toss.

Wise Guy / Buzz Horses:

I am always leery of the over-hyped horses coming into the Derby, as you tend to lose value quickly on the odds board.

There are a few that fit this category and I will likely begrudgingly be passing on them (you can’t bet them all).

5 – Smile Happy – 20 – 1: Horse for Course can improve off nice 2^nd in Blue Grass. Looks great on paper and the only knock on this guy is his sire Runhappy was more of a sprinter than a distance horse, and the dam side only offers limited stamina with Pleasant Tap. Interesting horse but I am not sure he will love the distance, and it seems many are high on his chances and 20-1 likely becomes 12-1 by post time.

8 – Charge It – 20 – 1: Another Pletcher horse is lightly raced and can improve in the Derby. FLA Derby effort was okay, but I am not as enamored by that race as the pace was collapsing late. Seems like a wise guy horse to me and you may be better waiting for the Belmont, by the distance specialist Tapit. Will be hammered down in wagering.

6 – Messier – 8 – 1: Brings speed to the party and has hall of famer Johnny V in the saddle. Formerly trained by Baffert and comes off 2^nd place finish in weak SA Derby. Overall, not high on the west coast contingent as these horses have been facing small fields and seem somewhat overrated. The ML odds don’t reflect his actual chances of winning.

Outsiders with Limited Appeal:

This group is interesting and if you like them, feel free to fire away.

 13 – Simplification – 20 – 1: Florida invader is a hard knocker but may be up against it vs tougher today. Wouldn’t talk anyone off him but with sub-par speed figure and many races that look the same, can’t see him breaking through today.

18 – Tawny Port – 30 – 1: Didn’t beat much in the LEX but is eligible to improve today. Interesting outsider.

19 – Zozos – 20 – 1: Inexperienced runner brings pace to the party and his best chance would involve racing over a wet track as he has the breeding to love the slop.

Boom or Bust Types:

These horses are wildcards in my judgement. They can win by 8 or finish well up the track, and both outcomes would not be surprising.

3 – Epicenter – 7 – 2: Likely favorite come post time has beat up on the competition in Louisiana in preparation for this big race. While he looks great on paper, I am not sure the post draw did him any favors and I am not ready to back him at a short price with so many variables in play regarding the competition he beat. Taking a stand against. 

12 – Taiba – 12 – 1: Will likely be overbet off of the hype of a fast SA Derby. Only two career starts are not a recipe for Derby success, but you have to love the 1.7-million-dollar purchase price. A complete wildcard and could finish first or last. I would say that no other horse in the field is more dependent on a good break than him, because if he breaks poorly, he likely is done having never seen this many horses to date. Tons of talent here, love the horse, and would guess he would be a contender in the BC Classic.

Selections & Predicted Order of Finish  – My Top 4

9 – Tiz the Bomb – 30-1:  Detractors would point out that this guy is unproven on the dirt, and he just beat weaker at Turfway on synthetic. And, to that, I would agree but would point out — that’s the main reason why we will be getting 25 or 30-1 come post time. At the end of the day, the key to turning a profit at the track is to bet on horses that have overlaid odds – meaning their pari-mutuel odds are greater than their actual chances of winning the race. Is he the most likely winner? NO. But the projected odds offer value and to me it feels like he has an 8-1 or 10-1 chance of winning. If you keep pounding overlays, long term profits await. There are a few things I like about him, including, that he is one of the most experienced runners in the field, and faced GR 1 competition in the BC Turf last year, where he finished 2^nd. He also is the leading money earner in the field. He also sports a win on dirt at Ellis Park, so he does have ability on the surface. Also, the speed figs are comparable to the race favorites, as he earned a 105 EQ rating in last. In addition, though it was on turf, he is the owner of the highest lifetime speed figure in the race as he earned a 109 as a 2YO in the BC Turf race. I also like his post draw as the two to his left and 2 to his right are not speed demons and he could have a chance to break cleanly and establish a mid-pack position early in the race. In short, have to respect his form coming into the race and he may sit the trip in 2^nd flight waiting to pounce. There is an old angle (from my database) — the Churchill dirt surface is often kind to horses with an affinity for the turf. Sneaky live longshot and is worth taking a shot. If his form translates to dirt, he could blow up the board.

1 – Mo Donegal – 10-1: By a son of Uncle Mo, who loved Churchill Downs, his closing style should set up nicely with the expected fast pace. Comes off a fast Wood Memorial victory and had trouble two back in the Fountain of Youth. Detractors might point to the rail as a negative and I would say “not so fast”. They are going to a new gate system where they are all in one gate vs using an auxiliary gate and the net of that is the one post will be 3 or 4 paths to the right from prior years location, so there is more room to maneuver. As a closer, being on the rail is okay as he could save ground on the turns. Also, he won from the one hole in two races at Aqueduct. Overall, I like the odds booster here as 10 to 1 might turn into 13 or 14 to 1 (because of the rail aversion). He has plenty of talent and should be rolling late but will need to work out a trip. He is a must include in all exotics.

10 – Zandon – 3-1:  Overcame a slow pace in weak blue grass field and looks to be training lights out over the Churchill strip. Likely co-favorite will be running late and is a contender to run them down late. Lots to like about this Chad Brown runner and he is a deserving co-favorite. Will also be one that needs to work out a trip but has experience doing just that, as he rallied in a few races from well off the pace to win.

17 – Classic Causeway – 30 – 1: Here is my Pilot to Bombardier play….Here is a horse not getting any buzz in the pre-race run-up. In my view, he is dangerous as he might find himself on the lead turning for home. This colt has plenty of talent and is being unfairly categorized as a fraud because of one bad race. If you draw a line through that race – perhaps he hated the track at GP – he fits based on the speed figures. Also, like the post for his running style as he might have some options to either go to lead or sit off the pace runner’s flank. He has been favored in 4 of his last 5 races so it seems like a pretty big fall from grace to go to 30-1 off of one bad performance. He is at the very least an interesting longshot and if things break his way, could hang around late, and hit the board at a MASSIVE price.

Honorable Mentions (live Long Shots):

Horses I might include underneath as their odds offer some appeal and there is some talent to go along with the inflated price.

7 – Crown Pride – 20 – 1: Winner of UAE Derby hails from Japan and has the breeding to contend at this distance. Japan runners have been on fire this past year and I guess the thing I like the most upon inspection is the talent throughout his pedigree, which includes Sunday Silence on both sides, and Seattle Slew and Kingmambo. If he flops in the Derby would probably still like him in the Belmont, as he is bred to run all day. UAE winners don’t typically do well in the Derby but I would be leery to bucket this guy as a typical UAE winner, as the talent looks to be there, he has a bullet work over the track, and his breeding is special.

16 – Cyberknife – 20 – 1: Mixed feelings on this guy as he has talent but hasn’t proven it vs top notch competition. Like the running style and the trainer is always dangerous. Breeding is nice, by Gun Runner, and is bred to run all day. Tabbing for the Belmont as a contender, but may include underneath today. Leave off tickets at your own risk.

15 – White Abarrio – 10 – 1: Won last two in Florida and has an underrated trainer. Breeding for the distance may not be there, but he is an interesting contender at a price. Dangerous.

Wagering

• Big win bet 9
• Small Win bet 1
• Exacta box – 1-9-10
• Tri Box – 1-9-10-17

Off Track Comments

If the track comes up wet, the following horses could move up:

• Zozos – bred on both sides for slop
• Mo Donegal – Good off-track breeding
• Cyberknife – Gun runner on top, and Distorted humor and Deputy Minister on dam side
• Taiba – Another Gun runner colt who should like slop
• Charge It – Should like it wet

(Check the track condition a few hours before race)

Good luck to all…

Let’s hope for a clean, safe trip for all of the horses and jockeys.

PonyCapper (Whitey)

Filly and Mare Sprint
Confidence level – 10

5 – Gamine
4 – Cece

Comments – (race not worth betting)


Turf Sprint
Confidence Level – 1

9 – Kimari
10 – Gear Jockey
7 – Charmaine’s Mia (longshot)
1 – Dream Ahead
13 – Bombard (longshot)

Comments – For action players only – race is wide open, almost anyone can win


Dirt Mile
Confidence Level – 9

1 – Silver State
5 – Life is Good
3 – Ginobili
7 – Snapper Sinclair

Comments – 1 horse should get dream trip behind hot pace


Filly and Mare Turf
Confidence Level – 3

8 – Loves Only You
7- War Like Goddess
12 – Audarya
11 – Dogtag (longshot)
1 – Going to Vegas

Comments – Wide open race – wager at your own risk


Sprint
Confidence Level – 9

9 – Dr Schivel
2 – Jackie’s Warrior
3 – CZ Rocket
6 – Firenze Fire

Comments – Its either the 9 or 2. If the 2 takes pressure, the 9 can win. If 2 out on lead by himself, the race might be over
Good race to play a super. 3 horse can easily get third if the pace is contested. All button for 4th.


Turf Mile
Confidence Level – 4

4 – Raging Bull
10 – Blowout
3 – Space Blues
2- Smooth Like Straight

Comments – Wide open race, if the pace is hot the 4 can make a run, if the pace is slow the 10 might wire field.


Distaff
Confidence Level – 8

2 – Royal Flag
6 – Letruska
3 – Malathaat
5 – Clairere

Comments – The 6 is the best horse in field but if she takes heat it might set it for the 2 to come get her late. The 3 is a nice horse and is now trying older fillies.
Another good race to play a super.


Turf
Confidence Level – 1

11- Gufo
13 – Tarnawa
1 – Rock Emperor
4 – Astronaut

Comments – no opinion in this race and just about any horse can win if the 13 doesn’t bring her best game.


Classic
Confidence Level – 10

4 – Essential Quality
2 – Express Train
5 – Knicks Go
9 – Max Player

Comments – Back up the brinks truck and lay it on the 4.
Essential Quality should get the dream trip with at least 3 front runners confirmed. If the pace is hot the 2 can run late. Have my doubts about the favorite Knicks go getting the distance.
Good race for a super with 4 up top
4 with 2-5 with 2-5 with all

Good Luck – Whitey