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Welcome to the first of many 2010 Triple Crown posts…

With the prep races concluding last weekend, it’s time to assess the quality of these races and highlight potential horses for the upcoming derby. Often these races can provide valuable clues as to which horses are rounding into top form for the derby, and which are potential frauds. Here is my analysis of the preps:

Wood Memorial:

Grade: B

Key Notes:

Winner: Eskendereya

He stalked a very soft pace as the odds on choice. Took charge rather easily and the jockey never touched him as he widened the margin through the lane. He ran the final three furlongs in just over 36 seconds which is pretty amazing since the jockey never touched him, and was under wraps late. His win in the Fountain of Youth was flattered when Ice Box came back to win the Florida Derby. He will be deserving favorite in the derby and one to beat. Has potential to win triple crown barring injury.

Runner Up: Jackson Bend

Ran decent 2^nd but the 3^rd place finisher, Awesome Act was geared down late. Jackson Bend is currently 21^st on the derby graded earnings list and would need a defection by Interactif or Noble’s Promise to get in. Liked his two year old campaign in Florida but seems a bit over matched in open company. Like his seasoning as 2yo.

3^rd Place: Awesome Act

Jockey had the horse under a strangle-hold the entire race, and if you watch the wood replay, you can see that it was clear that the jockey was trying to teach the horse how to rate. Problem was the pace was so slow that the horse was using energy to be taken in hand. Horse will need a faster pace in derby so he can relax more, and he will get just that in the derby with the expected fast pace. Personally, I am tossing this race as the horse lost his back shoe at the start, even though on paper it looks like he was well beaten by the winner.  Has all the makings of a NY wiseguy derby horse and will no doubt be bet well below his ML odds. Bred to run all day and very playable in derby.

Santa Anita Derby

Grade: C+

Winner: Sydney’s Candy

Though he beat a pretty high quality field, Sydney’s Candy had things all his own way as he was out on the lead by himself.  Though visually impressive coming down the lane, you have to wonder how much of an advantage the soft pace and lone speed aided the victory. He has never raced on dirt, though I don’t think that is an issue, as he is by Candy Ride. The question mark with him is the impending pace scenario in the derby. He has never rated off the lead and from all accounts, looks to be a nead-the-lead type of horse. If he can rate in derby, may have an outside chance but he’ll probably be the 3^rd betting choice and will be vastly overbet off his big win.

2^nd: Setsuko

Ran a decent race considering he rallied into a very slow pace and outkicked Looking a Lucky, who had a troubled trip.  He is currently 25^th in graded earnings so he is doubtful to make the race, but if he were to sneak in, he is playable underneath in trifecta as the late developing colt could clunk up for 3^rd as a longshot.

3^rd: Looking at Lucky

If I was Baffert, I would get that clown Gomez off him for the derby. Gomez basically has fucked up the last two races for him and put him in a really bad spot in the santa anita derby, and lost all chance when another horse pinned him on the rail on the turn. It’s amazing the horse came back to rally for third, and will be the clear cut 2^nd choice in the derby based on his impressive resume.  Very usable in exotic combos.

Illinois Derby

Grade – D

Winner: American Lion

Was the only speed in the race and the field was one of the weakest in recent memory. American Lion wired the field in a pretty slow time and the lone challenger, Yawanna Twist, has serious distance limitations. I like the pace numbers in American Lion’s previous races and I like the win when taking the blinkers off. But, like Sydney’s Candy, will need to learn how to rate off the pace in the derby for any chance of victory.

Arkansas Derby

Grade – F

Winner: Line of David

The weakest field of all the derby preps. Many of the horses, including the winner, were eligible for a NW2 Allowance. Line of David set a pretty fast pace and held off late chargers, Super Saver and Dublin.  Will be deserving longshot in derby given the slow time and shaky credentials coming into the race.

2^nd: Super Saver

Liked the fact that he rated off the pace, which he has never done before. But, turning for home, had the winner in his sights but weaved erratically through the stretch to just miss. Horse took some inside money in the race and is trained by red hot Pletcher. Also, like that he has a win over the Churchill strip. He will be an interesting long shot, and has outstanding derby distance breeding by Marias Mon and AP Indy on both sides. Playable underneath.

3^rd: Dublin

Got perfect trip and came up short with no excuses. Has lost his last 5 races so I’m not sure I can endorse him in the derby.

Bluegrass

Grade D

Winner: Stately Victor

Shocked the world at 40-1. Horse was eligible for NW1 allowance. Caliber of field was decent and perhaps the horse is peaking at the right time? Ran decent at Saratoga as 2yo so dismissing as synthetic freak may be mistake, especially with Ghostzapper in pedigree.  Tough to figure what to do with this one on derby day. Leaning against for now.

2^nd: Paddy O Prado

Looked like a winner turning for home but was destroyed in stretch by winner. Has run mainly on Turf so will be another wildcard on derby day.

Florida Derby

Grade C-

Winner: Ice Box

Zito runner shocked the world at 20-1 due mainly to the favorable pace set up. Perhaps Zito paid off Nakatani to engage in a suicidal pace with Rule. Zito is part of my Smarty Jones conspiracy theory in the Belmont. No doubt he paid two other jockeys to compromise their chances and press Smarty in the early stages of the Belmont to set it up for Zito’s Birdstone. But I digresss…The florida derby field was pretty weak as Eskendereya went north to the wood.  Ice Box was crushed in Fountain of Youth by Eskenderya so pretty sure we can dismiss this win as a fluke. Has capability to cluck up for 3^rd or 4^thwith pace falling apart late.