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One of the most underrated and profitable angles for the Kentucky Derby is uncovering pedigree plays for the derby distance. We’ll do this by looking at dosage numbers, dosage points and center of distribution. The best profiles typically include a dosage under 4.0, dosage points over 30, and a center of distribution under .33.

The Dosage system is a mathematical analysis of a horse’s pedigree based upon the presence and location of certain major sires (each one is called a chef-de-race) in a horse’s four-generation pedigree. Females are not included.

Chef-de-race sires are grouped in five different categories, ranging from speed (brilliant) to extreme stamina (professional). In between are the categories intermediate, classic, and solid. The closer a chef-de-race stallion appears in a subject horse’s pedigree, the greater the influence. A chef-de race sire is assigned 16 points; second generation chef-de-race sires are assigned 8 points; third generation chef-de-race sires are assigned 4 points; and fourth generation chef-de-race sires are assigned 2 points. A formula is then used to determine a horse’s Dosage Index (DI) and a Center of Distribution (CD).

Horses with a DI higher than 4.00 and a CD above 1.25 are considered unlikely to negotiate successfully the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May. Thus, a DI higher than 4.00 and a CD higher than 1.25 mean too much speed and not enough stamina in a horse’s pedigree.

Total Dosage Points should be a minimum of 18 (preferably 30 or more), and the colt should have at least one point on the right side of the dosage profile (meaning either of the two columns to the right of the center one; there are 5 columns). In general, the numbers on the left in the profile show sprinting potential, and the numbers on the right show stamina potential.

In plain English, the horses best bred for the derby:

• Have a high number of dosage points (prominence of chef-de-race sires in pedigree)
• Have a low center of distribution (which means a good blend of both speed and stamina in pedigree)
• Have a Dosage Index lower than 4.0

So, let’s evaluate this year’s contenders. An * indicates that the horse may not be running in the derby.

Best Bred:

Interactif*:

Pedigree:   Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush
Dosage Profile:   12-13-15-2-2 (44 Dosage Points)
Dosage Index/CD:   2.83   0.70

Comments: Crushes the field in dosage points.

Paddy O Prado

Pedigree:   El Prado – Fun House by Prized
Dosage Profile:   2-4-12-4-0 (22 Dosage Points)
Dosage Index/CD:   1.20   0.18  

Comments: 2^nd Best Dosage Index and best Center of Distribution

Dean’s Kitten:

Pedigree:   Kitten’s Joy – Summer Theatre by Ide
Dosage Profile:   2-1-9-2-0 (14)
Dosage Index/CD:   1.15   0.21

Comments:  Best Index and 2^nd best CD. Perfect Pyramid shape. Little light on total dosage points.

*******

2^nd Tier

Discreetly Mine

Pedigree:   Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account
Dosage Profile:   8-8-15-0-1 (31)
Dosage Index/CD:   2.76   0.69  

Awesome Act

Pedigree:   Awesome Again – Houdini’s Honey by Mr. Prospector
Dosage Profile:   15-3-14-0-0 (32)
Dosage Index/CD:   3.57   1.03  

Devil May Care*

Pedigree:   Malibu Moon – Kellis Ransom by Red Ransom
Dosage Profile:   7-6-17-0-0 (30)
Dosage Index/CD:   2.53   0.67  

Endorsement

Pedigree:   Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy
Dosage Profile:   7-7-13-0-1 (28)
Dosage Index/CD:   2.73   0.68  

 Super Saver

Pedigree:   Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy
Dosage Profile:   7-7-14-0-0 (28)
Dosage Index/CD:   3.00   0.75  

******

Honorable Mention:

Ice Box

Pedigree:   Pulpit – Spice Island by Tabasco Cat
Dosage Profile:   7-6-11-0-0 (24)
Dosage Index/CD:   3.36   0.83  

Lookin at Lucky

Pedigree:   Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong to Me
Dosage Profile:   10-4-12-0-0 (26)
Dosage Index/CD:   3.33   0.92

Eskendereya

Pedigree:   Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew
Dosage Profile:   9-1-14-0-0 (24)
Dosage Index/CD:   2.43   0.79

Stately Victor

Pedigree:   Ghostzapper – Collect the Cash by Dynaformer
Dosage Profile:   3-2-11-0-0 (16)
Dosage Index/CD:   1.91   0.50  

A little Warm*

Pedigree:   Stormin Fever – Minidar by Alydar
Dosage Profile:   8-2-14-0-0 (24)
Dosage Index/CD:   2.43   0.75

Note, the above profile system is not infallible as it is not an exact science. Stallions are constantly re-evaluated. From Bolldhorse.com:

Mine That Bird’s Dosage numbers aren’t wrong, they’re just not right — yet.

The Dosage Profile of last year’s winner of the Kentucky Derby is based on two stallions in his third generation (Unbridled and Mr. Prospector) and four in his fourth cross (Fappiano, Northern Dancer twice, and Raise a Native).  (Mine That Bird’s pedigree.)  With the exception of Fappiano, all of these stallions contribute Brilliance to the pedigree.  Meaning that on paper — and using the Chefs-de-Race list as it exists in 2009 — Mine That Bird comes from a speed-dominant background.

But… Dosage looks only at the influence of specific sires, and of 64 possible Dosage “points” in a horse’s pedigree, Mine That Bird has only 16.  So far.  That is likely to change over time, and his DI will lower because of it.

Give it a few years and we’ll see Vice Regent declared an Intermediate sire, and Smart Strike and Storm Bird will be Classic influences.  (Vice Regent’s current progeny average winning distance is 6.96 furlongs; it’s 7.45 for Smart Strike and a remarkably high 8.24 for Storm Bird, making him arguably a Classic/Solid influence but for sake of argument we’ll stick with Classic.) 

Given those additions to Steven Roman’s Chef-de-Race list, we’d find Mine That Bird’s DI at 2.76 instead of 5.40.  And 2.76 is well under the 4.00 Derby standard.

Again, Dosage measures the influence of specific stallions.  I doubt that we’ll see Birdstone (SRO) or Grindstone (SRO) added to Dosage calculations anytime soon — but that doesn’t diminish their genetic influence, which tends towards stamina.  Grindstone’s 7.22 furlong progeny average winning distance is indicative and while Birdstone is too young to have a valid progeny AWD, as a runner he himself boasted an 8.96-furlong figure in that category.

So… even if he officially counts as an exception, Mine That Bird shouldn’t be used as proof that the Derby Dosage rule is permanently shattered.