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Welcome to the first online version of my Kentucky Derby Field Analysis and Picks…

For several years, myself and fellow capper Dave Halpren published our Derby picks via spreadsheet. I have included Dave as a guest capper on this blog to keep the tradition alive, and his picks are included at the bottom of this post.

2010 Kentucky Derby

Grade 1 – $2,185,000 Purse

TV Coverage – NBC 4:00 pm

Post Time – 6:24

Race Overview

The 2010 Kentucky Derby looked like a one horse race, but the race lost some of its luster when the likely heavy favorite, Eskendereya, was scratched due to injury.  From a fans perspective, this is disappointing as he is an absolute monster and had every right to be the first horse in 32 years to capture the elusive Triple Crown. But, from a wagering perspective, the scratch was welcome news as handicappers get something that they crave when betting the ponies – whether it’s the classiest animals on the first Saturday in May or a bunch of three-legged donkeys at Penn National in the middle of the winter – and that is…VALUE.

While cappers are happy, most will get more than they bargained for, as the derby has all the makings of a head-scratcher. Consider:  this year’s field looks like one of the worst and evenly matched derby’s in years, with minimal throw-outs; there is no confirmed stud or horse to beat; there are several wildcard horses switching from turf or synthetics to try dirt for the first time, a full field of 20 entered, and there is a strong possibility of an off-track (I think we all remember what happened last year in the slop). All of this equates to a potential Superfecta windfall in excess of 20 grand for astute cappers (or people who pick numbers out of a hat). Any capper that had last year’s super payout of 557K is a sick bastard.

So let’s get down to business and break down this year’s derby…

Typically, capping the derby is a two step process for me….unraveling the pace scenario to determine the running style most apt to win, and secondly, trying to figure out which horse has the best chance of winning from those with that running style. We’ll also sprinkle intangibles such as pedigree for the derby distance, including the dosage profile.

Pace/Race Breakdown:

With at least 5 confirmed front runners (horses who want or need the early lead) this year’s derby should favor stalkers, mid-pack runners and closers. Horses on the lead should be cooked after splits in 45 3/5 and 1:10 and change. While it is possible a front runner goes wire to wire, because you never know what the jockeys are going to do, this scenario is not likely. Another factor favoring closers is the real possibility of an off track. Churchill could be under water with 2 to 4 inches of rain expected. Last Saturday, Churchill was a swamp and most of the horses that won that day were NOT anywhere near the lead in the early parts of the race.  Last year, Mine That Bird was in last place after a half mile. So, if the track is wet, that is one extra bullet for the closers.

So with all that said here is how I see it playing out:

Probable pace setter will be Conveyance, with American Lion, and Line of David right there. The pace will be fast. Sydney’s Candy will be just to the outside of the three front runners and Super Saver will be just off the pace and to the inside of American Lion and Sydney’s Candy. Third and 4^th flight horses at the half pole probably will include Discreetly Mine, Paddy O Prado, and Nobles Promise, with Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, and Devil May Care tracking them. If the three quarters time is run in less than 1:10, it could set it up for horses at the rear of the pack, which would include Ice Box. Turning for home, I look for Borel to guide super saver through a crevice on the rail and get first jump on the closers. He’s game but comes up short, tiring late. Awesome Act makes a big sweeping move on the turn and outkicks Devil May Care, Super Saver and Paddy I Prado late for the victory.  4^thplace is a 4 way photo leaving superfecta players in the dark until the numbers are posted.

Picks & Analysis:

Awesome Act

I watched every prep race this year – live or replay – and no horse was more impressive to me than Awesome Act in the Gotham. He encountered traffic problems in the race and then accelerated in an eye popping fashion to win going away while being geared down late. The pace and speed figs in the race were outstanding (105-110). Awesome Act then faced a decent field, including Eskendereya in the Wood. While he was soundly beaten that day, I think he had some legitimate excuses. For one, he stumbled at the break and lost his shoe (think of driving with a flat tire). Then the jockey put him under a strangle hold because the pace of the race was so slow. He had to choke him hard to get him to rate off it (See replay here:  http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=5052391&categoryid=2488837) Obviously, the horse lost a ton of energy in the process and coupled with the shoe debacle, finished a well-beaten third to Eskendereya.  I think the horse can relax a little better with a faster pace in front of him, and he will have a lot more in the tank for the stretch. He proved he can rate off a fast pace in the Gotham so he will benefit from the race set up. By Awesome Again (a 4 time winner at a mile and a quarter), Awesome Act is bred for the distance and has the highest dosage points in the field (32). Also, like the fact that the trainer gave Awesome Act a chance to workout over a muddy track a few days ago, while other trainers were canceling works due to the surface.  The work was very good and the jockey stated that the horse skipped over the track easily. The wetter the better for this cat. One other note, a horse that was trounced in the Gotham (Afleet Again) came back last Saturday to take a stakes race at Aqueduct at odds of 24-1, which flatters Awesome Acts victory in the Gotham. On the downside, there are two things working against us with this pick. One, we won’t get the morning line odds of 10-1. I suspect he will be close to 2^nd choice and go off at  7 to 1. Two, (and the event causing number one) he has all the makings of the wise guy horse. These are horses with trouble or excuses in his last race that get pounded at the windows next time by the wiseguys (the so-called smart money at the track). Wise guy horses rarely win derby’s (just saying) but with the value here, and the strong possibilities of a win, I can’t go in another direction because of a jinx.

Contenders for the Exotics (Finish 2^nd through 5^th)

I haven’t decided on the official order of finish for these next 4 horses. I will be using all of them in some combination for the exotics.

Super Saver

Super Saver should run a big race. With him, here is what you get: He has the best pace figures in the field, you get Calvin Borel, a Churchill God who has won two of the last 3 derby’s (not to mention he is enfuego for this meet so far) and he knows a little something about riding the rails and saving ground on derby day (Mine that Bird and Street Sense),You get Todd Pletcher, You get a horse with a previous win over the Churchill strip, You get a horse who will love the slop out of Maria’s Mon and AP Indy on the dam side and nice Tomlinson rating.  Love the fact that he rated for the first time just off the pace in the Ark Derby so it’s clear the intention in the derby will be to sit just behind the lead group (probably on the rail since he is in pp4) and then try to get first jump on the closers in the stretch. I think he will get first run and have the lead briefly, but will get tired late and finish in the money. There is a lot to like about this guy and with ML odds of 15-1, he offers a lot of value in the exotics. Predicting 9-1 final odds on this one.

Devil May Care

The filly Devil May Care is a legitimate threat in this year’s derby, yet she is not getting a lot of press. Perhaps, it was her late entry onto the derby scene as a result of the scratch of Eskendereya. Interesting story here…the owners of the horse said they wouldn’t run the horse in the derby unless John Velasquez was in tow. Johhny V already committed to Eskendereya so the owners were planning to run her in the Oaks on Friday. You have to root for these connections based on their actions. In any event, Devil May Care will relish the distance and is trained by white-hot Todd Pletcher.  The knock on her may be lack of seasoning and she has never been battle tested (which I like to see in the preps). She will have a lot of $2 supporters out there from the women population and I predict she will go off at 13-1, slightly higher than her ML odds of 10-1.

Paddy O Prado

A 20-1 longshot that could blow up the exotics is Paddy O Prado. He has raced mainly on Turf so the dirt is a big question mark. But the old saying is…love turf…love the slop. My gut tells me he is primed for a big race and that the Bluegrass was just a prep. Love the breeding on this guy with a 1.20 dosage number (2nd best in field) and more importantly, and owns the best center of distribution number at .18 (this measures blend of speed and stamina in horse and is often a positive factor for the derby distance). Had nice workout over the track in the slop and is generating some buzz. If you’re looking for the best win value (considering the higher odds), he’s your guy. Predicted off odds 17-1.

Lookin at Lucky

I’m not a huge fan of Lookin at Lucky, but as the race favorite, probably needs to be included underneath.  The horse does have talent, and if that dope Gomez wasn’t riding him in his last two starts he would have won both and would be a beatable 2-1 favorite in the derby.  If the horse doesn’t win it won’t be because of the post position, or another crappy ride by GO GO, but instead, would be due to either the slop or the fact that he may not be good enough. Taking a leap of faith he will hit board but not win.

Rest of Field Breakdown:

Wildcards and Longshots:

Here are 3 longshots that you can include on saver win bets or in exotics, if you are not thrilled with the horses listed above.

Noble’s Promise – Last may have been a throw out due to lung infection and brutal trip. Pedigree is light on distance but his slop rating is tops in the field.

Dean’s Kitten – Here’s a horse no one is talking about but I think may have an outside shot. He epitomizes the word wildcard. He has never has raced on dirt. Breeding is great for distance. Could finish 3^rd or 20^th.

***Late Breaking News**** Moving up Discreetly Mine as live longshot based on tote action and some positive news coming out of barn on this guy

Mission Impazible – Trained by pletcher, improving beyers, getting some buzz in morning

Pretender Break Down (Taking a Stand against)

Sydney’s Candy – He could prove me wrong but not sure you can take a 5-1 shot who has never  raced on dirt, has never proven he can rate, has only won on the lead, has very marginal pace ratings, and is breaking from post 20. Could he win? Yes. But as 2^nd choice I can’t endorse, as there are way too many question marks.

Ice Box – I can see it now…this guy clucking up for 4^th to rob me of a superfecta score. He benefited from an ideal trip in florida derby and will be overbet on Zito factor. Can see him splashing up for 3^rd or 4^th in complete pace meltdown scenario.

Stately Victor – Bluegrass was weak field and he is unproven on dirt. Having said that, he is a wildcard, and if you like the name, it’s not the worst two bucks you can spend on derby day.

Jackson Bend – Love his heart and his seasoning. Has never finished worse than 2^nd but takes major step up from Florida circuit. Zito is high on him, but I’d say 4^th place is only a remote possibility.

American Lion – 10,000 claimers ran faster half miles on Illinois derby day. Would need to come off lead to have any shot and he has never done it, so doubt he will on Saturday.  Likely pace casualty.

Dublin – Horse hasn’t lived up to 2yo hype. Son of Afleet Alex will have sentimental support for Lukas. Does he have one more Derby miracle in him?

Discreetly Mine – Nice horse but has never passed anyone in stretch.

Homeboy Kris – Jockey win would avenge his snubbing at last year’s eclipse awards for best jockey (he should have won). Has the look of Mine that Bird so maybe a $2 saver is in order.

Conveyance – Set slower pace in Sunland derby than 7 out of 8 races that day, including maidens and low level claimers. However, he is the speed of the speed and will be gunning on the lead. Leads for 3 quarters and most likely fades. If the track is favoring speed, he may stick around for a small share. Otherwise, he is most likely a pace casualty.

Backtalk – Horse for course angle…2 for 2 at Churchill and 2 for 2 on wet track. Light on beyers and has faced weak competition.

Line of David – No chance to win but can press the pace and set it up for others

Make Music for Me – Could be longest price in field…can you say blow up the super?

His Mother’s a Mudder?

Here is a list of horses to move up if the track is sloppy based on Tomlinson numbers:

• Pappanick
• Noble’s Promise
• American Lion
• Super Saver
• Awesome Act
• Line of David
• Backtalk

 

Derby Forecast

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/30928/2010-kentucky-derby-at-risk-fo-1.asp

Wagering Strategy:

• Large win bet on Awesome Act
• Medium win bet on Paddy o Prado (and if funds allow small saver win bets on Super Saver and Devil May care)
• Exacta box Awesome Act, Super Saver, and Devil May Care
• Small exacta box Awesome Act and Paddy O Prado
• Tri and super keys – some combo of Awesome Act on Top with Devil May Care, Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky, and Paddy O Prado underneath (Deeper pockets can include more horses in the 4^th slot such as Ice Box, Dean’s Kitten, Nobles Promise and Sydney’s Candy)

My Favorite Derby Moment:

Barbaro winning the 2006 Kentucky Derby. He was a true champion and was the hallmark of class, guts, speed and heart. I loved that horse. Relive it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6PacUirYuQ

 

Dave Halprens Analysis

Here’s a look at each horse and where I think they’ll finish:

Contenders

Super Saver – Training well, Borel obviously knows how to win this and this horse will close hard is my pick to win it.

Ice Box – Will drop back and close late, I expect a top 3 finish.  Will get to save ground from PP2

Sidney’s Candy – 20 PP doesn’t help, plus mixed reviews this week in workouts. But has the speed and stamina to not only crack the top 3, but to win going away.

Top 4 shot

Paddy O’Prado – Loves the slop…. very intriguing horse who may get into superfecta.  Training well, may be peaking. Great tactical speed, good value bet. Downside maybe that he’s bred for the turf and it’s what everyone will look back on when he fails to cash.

Lookin At Lucky – Tough to take fav at 3-1 starting on rail, but has all the tools to win the derby.  Baffert alluded to the fact that he’s a late foal and will better in a few months…makes we wanna look elsewhere.

Devil May Care –Unlike previous derby fillies, has never faced males which should raise a red flag. Putting blinkers on should help this filly but wasn’t an original Pletcher choice to run here, but I think has the ability to hit the board.

Maybe Top 10

Jackson Bend – Could work way into exotics, distance can be an issue, and pedigree has question marks, but a tough horse who won’t quit. Never finished worse than 2^nd.

American Lion – Training well but running style not suited for derby.  Doesn’t appear to like the slop, if rain holds off, keep this horse in mind.

Dean’s Kitten – Profile suggest a good finish, although he’s a turf horse so tough to gauge how he’ll do on dirt.

Mission Implazable – Might peak tomorrow, but Pletcher also said Super Saver is training better this week.

Awesome Act – On paper looms like a contender, workouts this week/clocker report, suggest otherwise. Very mixed on him. Tough draw with 16PP.

Noble’s Promise – Training well, but previous lung issue still lingers doubt here. More of a Sprinter.

Stately Victor – Very tempting to throw in to exotics as late closer, was last race a fluke, that’s the major question here.  Weak numbers on dirt suggest this horse is more likely to finish off the pace.

The rest….

Dublin – Just not looking good this week, a scared horse imo.

Make Music for me – Looking less than stellar this week in training.

Backtalk – not looking good this week

Conveyance – Tons of speed, will set pace, but will not hit the board

Homeboykris – overmatched…throw out.

Line of David – Wants no part of the potential slop, pace setter who stands little chance of hitting the board

Discreetly Mine – Not expected to get the distance here.