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Welcome to the Preakness Field Analysis and Picks…

I have included my analysis as well as Dave Halpren’s analysis below. Dave cold-decked the derby exacta and is clearly on a roll.

I will have some additional picks for other races for those visiting the OTB today. Check back later on Saturday morning for these.

2010 Preakness Stakes

Post Time – 6:15

Race Overview

This year’s Preakness presents a challenge to all cappers as the pace scenario is somewhat murky, as there are no clear-cut front runners. Typically, the Preakness is dominated by chalks and derby winners. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many price horses to win in recent years, however, there is always value to found in the exotics.  Here is how I see the race unfolding:

First Dude will be firing out of the gate along with Super Saver. Borel aboard Super Saver will have a decision to make entering the first turn – whether to concede the lead or not. I think he does and First Dude will be the pace setter, with Super Saver, Jackson Bend and SchoolYard Dreams stalking. The pace should be moderate to slow with splits of 23 and change and 47 flat. The third flight of horses will include Yawanna Twist, Paddy O Prado and Lookin at Lucky. On the Final Turn, I look for Super Saver to get first jump on the field. SchoolYard dreams will get an absolute dream trip on the rail behind the pace and will need to make his move on the turn, avoiding getting bottled up behind the leader. Lookin at Lucky will be making a move on the turn. In the stretch, Super Saver will shake free but will he have enough to hold off Lookin at Lucky, who is flying late. It’s a photo finish with Lookin at Lucky winning, and Super Saver settling for 2^nd. Rounding out the exotics is SchoolYard Dreams who is a close third and longshot bomber Yawanna Twist rounding out the super, nipping Pleasant Prince.

2010 Preakness Post Positions

Post	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Morning Line
	Aikenite	J. Castellano	126	20-1
	Schoolyard Dreams	E. Coa	126	15-1
	Pleasant Prince	J. Leparoux	126	20-1
	Northern Giant	T. Thompson	126	30-1
	Yawanna Twist	E. Prado	126	30-1
	Jackson Bend	M. Smith	126	12-1
	Lookin At Lucky	M. Garcia	126	3-1
	Super Saver	C. Borel	126	5-2
	Caracortado	P. Atkinson	126	10-1
	Paddy O’Prado	K. Desormeaux	126	9-2
	First Dude	R. Dominguez	126	20-1
	Dublin	G. Gomez	126	10-1

 

Picks and Predicted Order of Finish

Lookin at Lucky (3-1) – Got horrible trip in derby. Was knocked into the rail twice and dopey Gomez just let it happen. Gomez has given this guy some terrible rides and now baffert pulls the trigger and goes with under-rated west coast Jockey, Martin Garcia. Baffert and Garcia have had success before and have won some stakes together. The key for this guy is to stay in contention as the pace will be much slower than the derby. The post position and jockey switch may be the keys for victory.

Super Saver (5-2)– This guy ran huge in the derby. Borel has boldly predicted a triple crown victory but that may be a little premature. Got dream trip in derby with another stellar ride by calvin. With no confirmed front runners in here, borel may be tempted to send him, but in doing so, he may be pressured on the outside by First Dude. There is a scenario where Super Saver gets cooked in the pace but that is not likely. One would think he will be in the garden spot just off the pace and take the lead at the top of the stretch. Borel could find himself on the lead early if First Dude backs off and in which case, he will inherit the lead going into the first turn.

SchoolYard Dreams (15-1)– He lost out at a shot at the derby when he came up a nose short in the Tampa Derby and met tough rival Eskendreya in the Wood. I love the time off and he should be primed for a big effort. He beat Super Saver in the Tampa Derby so the talent is there. In watching that race, I was impressed by the quick acceleration he displayed on the turn but just failed to last. Above else, the race could set up perfect for him. He will be in the garden spot on the rail, saving all the ground, and then look for room on the final turn. The question will be whether he is good enough. He should run a big one and expected off odds of 10-1 or better, he offers some value.

Yawanna Twist (30-1)– He is the most lightly raced horse in the field and has never finished worse than 2^nd in 4 starts. The knock on him is two things – one the distance may not be ideal. He is by Yonuguska – a champion sprinter. And two, he got beat by American Lion in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. I’ve seen horses struggle at Hawthorne for no apparent reason. He was 3 wide that day and the rail is where you needed to be. So I’ll toss that race. He showed he can compete with the big boys in the Gotham with an impressive 2nd place finish. Has tactical speed and I have a feeling he will be running late. Has never gone off at odds of 4-1 are better and now we are getting a juicy 30-1. Grandfather on mothers side – Oliver’s Twist – ran 2^nd in the Preakness several years ago.  This guy can blow up the supers and should be included on some tickets.

Others to Consider in Exotics:

Pleasant Prince (20-1) – He should be set for a big effort, unfortunately, he will not get the pace he needs to make his late run. Still, he has the potential to cluck up for part of the exotics.

First Dude (20-1) – Not out of the question that this one gets the lead on a slow pace and wires the field. Lost twice by a neck to a Zito horse called Fly Down who won the Dwyer last weekend, and is pointed to the Belmont. Dominguez is good on front runners. Will be including on some tickets and hoping pace is slow.

Jackson Bend (12-1) – Throw out slop effort in derby. Smith will have this one closer to pace and he seems to always be in the money.

Wagering Strategy

Typically, the Preakness offers little value for the betters. There are two schools of thought on this year’s race. One, there are two standout horses in the race and the only way to make any money is to key these two up top and play some junk underneath and hope to get lucky. The other school of thought is this year’s 3 year old crop is very weak, and it is quite possible that one of them can step up and pull off an upset. I’ll be playing both scenarios.

-Two Favorites up top with lots of junk underneath in tris and supers

-Small Win Bets on Schoolyard Dreams and Yawanna Twist. Small saver on first Dude to win. Not going crazy on win bets but enough for some action in case something crazy happens and the favs don’t show up with their A game.

Best Preakness Moment

2004 – Smarty Jones. Had goose bumps when this one was thundering down the stretch and pulling away with every stride. Relive it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FT2c_C5vXEg

Dave Halpren’s Analysis

The Kentucky Derby is about beating the favorites and if you’re lucky, finding value in the process.  It’s usually a 20 horse field where the best horse isn’t necessarily going to win due a variety of factors. That’s why you can always pick a horse or two with longer odds and feel comfortable with it.   The Preakness is a whole other ballgame.  You’re typically dealing with a much smaller field where there will only be a handful of very good horses and there is much less chance for excuses.   And with all that, you will get very little value.  So while we have seen some big scores in recent Derbies, the Preakness is not a place to try and make up for missing out on the Derby windfalls.  Yes there could value in the tri and supers, but if you’re looking to win big, I’d wait for the Belmont.  But with that said, anything can happen and I will offer up a few options in case the heavy favorites completely misfire. 

While 2 weeks ago we saw a Kentucky Derby field loaded with speed, where it became a race for closers, this week’s Preakness will be the complete opposite.  There is no real front running speed here and it will be interesting to see who actually goes out to the lead.  In last year’s Preakness, we saw Rachael Alexandra, ridden by Calvin Borel, take the lead the early and no one ever caught the talented filly. We may see a similar thing happen this year. 

In the Derby we saw Super Saver go off as the 2^nd choice, but with unthinkable odds (8-1) and he delivered.  But there were 2 other horses who ran that day who could claim they were the better horse.  One of those horses, Ice Box, will have to wait til the Belmont to prove his worth, but the other will run again against Super Saver again in the Preakness.  I’m talking about Lookin at Lucky.  It’s been well documented that this horse drew the worst post position (1) that day, had a terrible trip getting stuck in heavy traffic and it was a miracle he still managed to finish 6^th over a sloppy track.  The key number though is that fact that he was the only horse who ran the quarter-mile around the second turn of the Derby in well under 25 seconds (:24.17).  With a reduced field, a great post draw (7), and an expected fast track, Lookin at Lucky should have zero excuses to run the race of his life.    

But before we hand the win to Lookin at Lucky, who will most likely go off as the 2^nd choice somewhere around 3-1, we must not discount Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver.  This horse had a dream trip at Churchill Downs, but that doesn’t mean he was lucky.  Jockey Calvin Borel rode this horse brilliantly, biding his time early, making a move to the rail and riding it to glory.  You will most likely see a different race out of Super Saver where he will go to the lead fairly early and  if he truly is the best horse, no one will catch him.  However, I think he can and will be caught. 

Outside of Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky, there are a handful of horses who can contend and then another group who are simple outclassed.  Amongst the 12 horses running we have 5 horses who have not won since breaking their maiden.  One other horse who will be bet heavily will be Paddy O’Prado who finished third in the Derby, getting caught at the last second by Ice box for 2^nd.  I think this horse is good, but hugely benefited from the sloppy track that day.  I could be way off here, but I just don’t see this horse running as well at Pimlico.

SUMMARY

I really want to say Pleasant Prince will win this.  He lost by a nose to Ice Box at the Florida Derby, which was just a brilliant finish (you can look it up on you tube).  While he didn’t fair too well in his next two races (synthetic track which he hated and the other was in the mud), he will now return to a fast dirt track (like the FL Derby) and could be ready to explode.  My only problem will be if he goes too far back from the start (which he tends to do) and Super Saver gets on the lead and blisters the pace a bit.  It may be too tough for Pleasant Prince to recover from.  But if he can stay within a decent distance, I can see this horse closing hard for the upset win.  But in reality, it’s hard for me to go against Lookin at Lucky, I think he is the best horse with the best shot to win.  Super Saver will be right there with him at the finish.  

PICKS

1.       Lookin at Lucky

2.       Super Saver

3.       Pleasant Prince

4.       Yawanna Twist

I will most likely box all 4 these horses for exactas to get some value.  I will also throw some money at Pleasant Prince to win.  For extra value I will box these horses for the tri and super and I will include School Yard Dreams and Jackson Bend on a ticket or two.