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Welcome to the Belmont Stakes Field Analysis and Picks…

I have included my analysis as well as Dave Halpren’s analysis below.  

2010 Belmont Stakes

Post Time – 6:32

Race Overview

This year’s Belmont features a pretty weak field and won’t capture a big TV audience due to the defections of both the derby and Preakness winners. The race however does offer the bettors a decent wagering opportunity, with the presence of new shooters and a full field of 12 slated to run. Complicating things for cappers is the legitimate threat of thunderstorms rolling into NY before the race, casting a question mark over the track conditions.

Followers of this blog know that I’ve been very close to taking down large scores in both triple crown races but some stubbornness and exotic wagering blinders have cost me some major cash. Not including ice box in the derby cost me the tri and superfecta and not including Jackson Bend cost me the freaking super in the Preakness. But, as they say, we’ll hope that the third time is the charm.

The Belmont has been known to produce some major upsets over the years and factoring in a weak group of horses this year, anything seems possible.  Here is how I see the race unfolding:

I see two possible pace scenarios. First Dude gets out an uncontested lead and the pace is moderate to slow. In this scenario, Ice Box – the race favorite – may be severely compromised as he is a stone cold closer. The jockey of Ice Box would be rightly served by keeping his horse much closer to the pace if the leaders are crawling. Note, Ice Box has had some fast works recently, a potential trainer tip off that Ice Box, will indeed much closer to the pace (Zito is master at training horses for pace scenarios). The other scenario is a faster than expected pace and a couple horses battling up front for the lead. The entry of a couple of new shooters always raises question marks for pace, especially on paper when it looks like there is no pace – jockeys may try to send their horse to the lead. If the pace is quick (47 and 2 or less for the half) then Ice Box should benefit and cruise to victory. My gut tells me the pace will be moderate, which will give some stalkers a chance to run big and get first jump on the race favorite turning for home.

As far as the best running styles for this race, speed has been holding at Belmont so far this meet, and horses are not coming from the clouds to win. Having said that, the complete opposite has been true when it’s been sloppy, with closers ruling the day. Factor this into your capping and selections.

2010 Belmont Post Positions

Post	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Morning Line
	Dave in Dixie	Calvin Borel	126	20-1
	Spangled Star	Garrett Gomez	126	30-1
	Uptowncharlybrown	Rajiv Maragh	126	10-1
	Make Music for Me	Joel Rosario	126	10-1
	Fly Down	John Velazquez	126	9-2
	Ice Box	Jose Lezcano	126	3-1
	Drosselmeyer	Mike Smith	126	12-1
	Game On Dude	Martin Garcia	126	10-1
	Stately Victor	Alan Garcia	126	15-1
	Stay Put	Jamie Theriot	126	20-1
	First Dude	R. Dominguez	126	7-2
	Interactif	Javier Castellano	126	12-1

 

Picks and Predicted Order of Finish

Interactif (12-1) – There is an old saying, the freshest horses wins the Belmont. He has been off since April 10^th and Pletcher may have this one sitting on a powder keg.  Interactif has run primarily on turf and synthetic  but he has some very good works on the Belmont strip and I think if he handles the surface he has a very good chance to win. As I noted in my evaluating pedigree for the derby post (http://www.ponycapper.com/2010/04/22/2010-derby-evaluating-pedigree/), Interactif towered over the field in dosage points and was my best bred horse for the derby distance. Add another quarter mile and it should suit this one even more. Interactif is a son of Broken Vow, and is the grandson of Unbridled, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. Unbridled won at distances from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, but excelled in longer-distance races.  On the female side, Inetractif is by Broad Pennant, an unraced daughter of stamina influence Broad Brush, has already foaled Stretching, a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles on the grass. Another of Interactif’s half-siblings, Wingspan, was twice Group 3-placed on turf in France at 1 5 1/6 miles. He also has the breeding to handle an off track should the track become sloppy prior to post, and sports a nice Tomlinson wet fig of 419. Typically, turfers like it wet. The bottom line on this one is that he has nice tactical speed and should be stalking off first dude in third flight. He may get first jump on the far turn and have the stamina to hold off a late charging Ice Box. Love the jockey choice as well here as Pletcher knows that local knowledge is key at Belmont and his regular riders so far do not call Belmont home. There is however a lot of question marks about this guy, including ability and surface, and that’s why we will be getting at least 8-1 at post time on him. And at that price, he offers some nice value.

Ice Box (3-1) – Horse had horrendous trip in the Derby and crafty Zito gave this one a great shot to win this race by skipping the Preakness.  As I Mentioned in the race overview, pace is key for this one. There is a possibility the jockey could have closer than expected which creates a possibility of a complete flop. Obviously, this horse has talent and I was impressed by his derby performance. He is a must use in Exotics and really is the one to beat. I suspect he will go off closer to 2-1 as NY bettors love to pound favorites, and factor in Zito, he could be 8-5 when they load in the gate.

UptownCharleyBrown  (10-1) – There is a lot to like about this horse and I almost made him my top pick. He changes barns after the untimely death of his trainer a few months ago and the new trainer has a way with horses to run well first out. I have been a fan of this gritty horse after watching him break his maiden in impressive fashion. He has run some good races and the horse he ran into last time, Exhi, came back to win another stakes since. Also, he ran well vs super saver who won the derby. Also, like his pace figs and the tampa derby may in fact turn out to be a key race. Horse takes the blinkers off and the trainer is 50% (3 for 6) this year with such a maneuver, and he comes into this fresh. From a pace standpoint, he has good tactical speed and may try the stalk and pounce approach, which has been quite a productive approach in the Belmont. The knock on this one, and the reason he is not my top pick comes back to breeding. Limehouse horses are not known for their stamina, so it is quite possible he makes a nice middle move and falters in the last eight of a mile. Also, his off track pedigree is not that great.  Kind of hard to tell how the bettors will react to this one. Also, he will get bet at the windows and will probably be co 4^th choice, along with make music for me and Interactiff. He may be worth a small win wager at odds of 10-1 or higher.

First Dude (7-2) – I did call his lone speed performance in the Preakness at nice odds and was able to cash the exacta as a result. I do like the fact that he might be out there winging alone again, but at 7-2…looks like a sucker bet…no thanks. So many things can go wrong here especially a bounce off a career best beyer. Including this one in my exotics purely from a defensive perspective in the event he is able to set a slow pace and hold on for 3^rd or 4^th. Of course if he goes wire to wire I’ll look like a dope, but I just can’t pull the trigger on this guy with deflated odds. And of course, there is always the possibility one of the new shooters gets in his face early, which would be a disaster for his backers.

Game on Dude (10-1) – Call this one more of a hunch purely on breeding and the Baffert factor. He is bred to run all day, by Awesome again out of a Devil His Due Mare. He will love the mile and a half. The horse changed barns and went to red hot Baffert, who put the blinks on him and he turned in a nice stakes victory, although it was against some bad competition. Martin Garcia gets the call on this one, and as I noted in my Preakness analysis, this trainer / jockey combo is money in stakes races.  I guess the knock on this one is that he really hasn’t shown he can beat this level of competition, but he is improving, and Baffert certainly knows how to get a horse to run big in the triple crown, so the reward may be worth the risk.  So, a small win saver may be wise at predicted off odds of about 15-1. Regardless, he is certainly a possibility to hit the board and should be included in exotics.

Other Longshots to Consider in Exotics:

With the possibility of an off-track, I’ll be including some mudders on my ticket to run 3^rd and 4^th and hope for deluge before post. Let’s hope the rain gods are listening here.

Spangled Star  (30-1) – Are you kidding me? This horse looks like a donkey right? Sure seems like a stretch that this one is in here. Has not faced this caliber of horses and his beyers are terrible. But, you never know. His trainer would love to spring an upset after the big brown turd disaster a few years.  Gets dopey Gomez and he has a chip on his shoulder after he was replaced on the Preakness winner. If the track is wet, look for this guy to run big. He sports the best wet number in the field (439) and Distorted Humor and Kris S in pedigree screams wet. Possibility to clunk up for 3^rd or  4^th and blow up the supers like make music for me did in derby. A 2 dollar win saver is not a bad idea if wet.

Stay Put ( 20-1)- I know he hasn’t faced much, but you know what, this is a very ordinary group of 3 yo’s he is facing today. There are no super stars in this race. He is improving and was at least competitive in some of the triple crown preps in Louisiana. Love the fact that he is 2 for 2 on an off track. You have to figure the horse’s connections were praying for rain when they entered this guy, and they just may get it today.

Drosselmeyer (12-1) – He flopped at 3 to 5 in the Dwyer and had some excuse, as it didn’t get the best of trips. He never really runs a bad race and that alone is reason to include him. Kind of like a Jackson bend, always trys, is always close, but never wins. Is 1 for 1 on off track.

Rest of Field

Fly Down (9-2) – This horse will be way over bet off his good looking dwyer win. I went back to the form of that race and most of the horses in there were eligible for NW2 allowance. Wasn’t a great field. But he is by Zito, and that guy has cost me two big scores already so I may include this one underneath.

Stately Victor – His win in the Bluegrass looks like fluke. Playing against.

Make Music For Me – Not really sure why is so low on the morning line. Ran decent 4^th in Derby but not really sure about breeding for the distance and the talent is questionable.

Dave in Dixie – Hard to Recommend

Wagering Strategy

-Big win bet on Interactif. Small win bet on UptownCharley

– Exacta Box, Ice Box, Interactif, Uptown

Tri Key – Interactif over Ice Box over 6 horses for 3^rd

Tri Key – Uptown over Ice Box over 6 horses for 3^rd

Superfecta – Ice box over Interactif and Uptown over these two and 3 others over those 3 and 4 others

1^st – Ice Box

2^nd – Intractif and Uptown

3^rd – Two above plus 3

4^th – Those 5 plus 1

Small saver win bet on Game on Dude and possibly Stay put or Spangled Star or Stay Put

Best Belmont Moment

1973 – Secretariat crushes field by 31 lengths and smashes track record. I was just a little turk huddled around a 10 inch black and white TV but I do remember it.  It’s probably one of the greatest moments – and arguably the greatest – in all of sports history. Affirmed Alydar battle in 1978 a close up 2^nd. Relive it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-KvaeuIIsw

 

Dave Halpren’s Analysis

The 142^nd Running of the Belmont Stakes takes place on Saturday, official post time is set for 6:32pm and can be seen on ABC. 

 This year’s race is not for the Triple Crown (although personally I am attempting to win the Triple Crown in picking the winner of all 3 races), however, no matter what’s at stake, you’re talking about a 1 ½ mile race where stamina and strategy weigh heavily.  To me, that always sets up for intrigue.

 After the post positions were drawn on Wednesday morning, Ice Box, at 3-1, was set as the morning line favorite.  In my opinion he deserved it.  He rallied from way back to finish as the runner up at the Kentucky Derby, and I believe he should win this race.  I loved him on Derby day and just because he’s at a small price (3-1) I can’t help but love him again at the Belmont.  But you can certainly make a case for quite a few other horses.  Fly Down is a very intriguing horse who should hit the board while both Interactif and Stately Victor offer a ton of value.  

 The Kentucky Derby had a ton of speed and it begged for a closer to come up and take it and that’s what happened with Super Saver (Ice Box closed hard for second).  In the Preakness there was no real speed so First Dude took the lead and nearly went wire to wire, finally losing ground to Lookin at Lucky, although First Dude fought him back to the finish, coming up just short and getting 2nd. 

 As for the Belmont, the pace should be moderate and this could allow a speed horse to win it all.  First Dude will most likely break out to the lead and attempt to go wire to wire.  I just don’t think he’ll do it.  Interactif will most likely stay somewhat close to the pace and has enough horse to catch First Dude and win it all.  If Ice Box doesn’t go too far back (like he did in the Derby) I think he has all the tools to close hard and win.  Make Music For Me is a very intriguing horse here who will run a similar race to Ice Box.  If Ice Box breaks too soon I can make a case for Make Music For Me winning at the wire.  Fly Down loves this track, is coming off a very impressive win at the Dwyer Stakes and is certainly a contender.    Stately Victor is a huge wildcard here.  At first glance I wrote this horse off.  I didn’t respect his Blue Grass win and I didn’t think too much of his 8^th place Derby finish.  But after taking a closer look, he offers a lot more than I thought.

 As for the rest of the field I can probably make a case for 4 of the remaining 6 to hit the board, but at some point you gotta cut them off and stand your ground on your picks.  The two horses in the field I wouldn’t even consider are Dave in Dixie and Spangled Star, they just don’t belong here.

Official Predicted Order of Finish
PP	Horse
6	Ice Box
12	Interactif
4	Make Music For Me
5	Fly Down
11	First Dude
9	Stately Victor
8	Game on Dude
7	Drosselmeyer
3	Uptowncharlybrown
10	Stay Put
1	Dave on Dixie
2	Spangled Star

I’ll play a $1 Superfecta ticket with Ice box on top and then key Interactif, Make Music for Me, Fly Down, First Dude and Stately Victor for 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  That’s a $60 ticket.  I’d also play a $2 exacta box with those same 6 horses, costing another $60.