Friday, May 6th, 2011...7:28 pm
2011 Kentucky Derby Analysis
Welcome to the 2nd online version of my Kentucky Derby Field Analysis and Picks…
For several years, myself and fellow capper Dave Halpren published our Derby picks via spreadsheet. I have included Dave as a guest capper on this blog to keep the tradition alive, and his picks are included at the bottom of this post. Dave cold decked the exacta last year in the derby so you may want to give his commentary strong consideration.
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Whitey’s mantra for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is – Desperate Times, Call for Desperate Measures. This is a little more politically correct than my original one – Donkey Palooza.
Normally the week leading up the derby is somewhat exciting for me as a capper, as I try to unravel a puzzle and dissect the field using sound handicapping principles. Honestly, this week, I have been dreading capping this Derby for one simple reason – This is the worst Derby field I have seen in decades. Based on the donkleyfest, I’m taking a new tact to cap the event. I’m basically throwing out the form and using a contrarian approach to try and come up with the winner.
If you look at the derby preps, not one favorite won. That tells you a little bit about why I am tossing the form. I went back and looked at some of the key races leading up to the Derby and one thing I did notice is that if you throw out the winner’s last race, he fits. ArchArchArch is a good example as he won the Southwest, got crushed in the Rebel and then came back to win the Arkansas Derby at 25-1. Then there was Pants on Fire who staggered home in the Risen Star and then came back to win the Louisiana Derby at 6-1. Then there was Toby’s Corner, who was trying something new in the Wood when he added blinkers coming off a 3rd in the Gotham, and upset the highly regarded Uncle Mo at 8-1.
So, with all that being said, I will be tossing races of some of the contenders and giving them a pass. Essentially, drawing a line through a prep race and asking the question – Does he still fit? I will also be relying more heavily on pedigree, race set up, and intangibles to come up with the winner. The bottom line is one of the keys to being a good handicapper is adaptability. I see a race with very marginal horses and I am calling an audible – essentially bucking common sense and logical thinking to backdoor into the winner’s circle.
So, Here is my analysis:
Pace / Race Set-up
There should be plenty of pace in here as there are about 4-6 horses that want the lead or want to be near the lead. The defection of Uncle Mo hurts this a little bit but shouldn’t impact the overall shape.
At the Half mile point, I see it looking like this:
Comma to the Top in the lead. 2nd Flight will be Shackleford, Decisive Moment, Pants on Fire, Soldat. The pace should be hot, but I don’t see a suicidal speed duel developing – 46 flat maybe, with some of the speed horses content to let Comma to the Top set the pace. The race should up nicely for a stalker or a midpack horse to win the race. Horses coming from the clouds have a chance to clunk up for a share but I am not including them up top.
Whitey’s Top 5 and Breakdown of the other Contenders:
17 – Soldat – 12-1 – If you toss the last race, he fits in a big way. He hasn’t gone off at odds of greater than 4-1 in his last 5 races – now we are getting 12-1. That has value written all over it. Obviously something went wrong in the Florida Derby. They tried to rate him and apparently didn’t like the dirt getting kicked in his face and he packed it in early. With him drawing to the outside and with the scratch of Uncle Mo (was to Soldat’s outside), he will have things his own way early in the race. I suspect he will be in a perfect spot. Stalking the main speed from the outside – with no dirt in his face. If the pace is not suicidal and he is able to relax just off the lead he should be in a great spot to get first run on the main stalkers and closers. He has talent, but the only question may be the distance. He didn’t look like he was tiring while winning two Mile and an eighth races and the pedigree is okay from a distance perspective. If the track comes up wet, he moves up in a big way as he has two 2nds and a 1st in 3 starts over a wet track. Love his foundation and seasoning at age 2 and his trainer and jockey have triple crown experience. I would like even more if this were the Preakness and a sixteenth shorter.
12 – Santiva – 30-1 – First of all we are not getting 30-1 on this one. Mike Battaglia was smoking crack when he made this guy a huge ML price. We will hope for 15-1. Another you can draw a line through his last race as he had a troubled trip in the Bluegrass as the favorite. It is somewhat puzzling why his last prep race was on synthetic versus conventional dirt. If he loses his trainer will be questioned, since he seems like a better dirt horse. There is a lot to like about this horse besides his attractive odds. First of all, I went back to look at his win at CD as a 2 yo in a stakes and loved how he won. Here was a horse that was surrounded by two quality horses in the stretch and he looked them in the eye and prevailed. Love a horse who shows courage under stress. He then came back as a 3yo and ran a decent race while wide in the Risen Star, coming in 2nd to Mucho Macho Man. I am always forgiving of a horse’s first start as a 3 yo coming off a layoff, so perhaps he needed the race. He came back in the Bluegrass as the FAVORITE and had absolutely no where to run in the stretch. His ninth place finish is worse than it looks as the jockey basically gave up just inside the eighth pole when he realized it was over. From a setup standpoint he should be midpack or in a stalking position. He is by Giant’s Causeway that screams brilliance (28 points in that category – 2nd highest in the field). GC produced Lemon Drop Kid who won the mile and a half Belmont. He gets reunited with Bridgemohan who was the jockey on him in his last win. His trainer Kenneally is very good and somewhat underrated.
4- Stay Thirsty – 20-1 – Pletcher’s other horse in here. Stay Thirsty was Whitey’s pedigree play in the spring. You can check out the full article from my blog here.
Another horse whereby if you draw a line through his last race – he fits. He tried blinkers in the Florida derby and the experiment went awry as he finished far up the track. Reportedly, he was washed out before the race as the hot temperatures or pre race jitters may have contributed to his demise that day. But here are the positives: He is now taking the blinkers off. He beat Toby’s Corner in the Gotham and he came back to win the Wood. You get Pletcher who is white hot, and will probably be a force in the derby in the next ten years now that the monkey is off his back. You get Dominguez, arguably one of the top 3 jockeys in the country who is long overdue for a derby win. From a setup standpoint he should be on the rail entering the first turn as he will let the speed horses outside of him clear and will drop down to the rail and save ground, similar to what Super Saver did last year from the same 4 hole. The key for him is the final turn. If He can’t sneak through the rail past a tiring comma to the top, he may get bottled up. Trip and racing luck will be key for this guy. He is by Bernardini who can run all day and matures with age. ALERT – This is Whitey’s Belmont horse regardless of where he finishes. In some ways he reminds me of Birdstone who upset Smarty Jones in the Belmont with a spotty 3 yo campaign and who used the Derby as a springboard to peak with the increase of the distance on Belmont Day. While naysayers will point to average beyers and a terrible Florida Derby – Whitey says he is coming up to the race ready to run a big one.
2 – Brilliant Speed – 30-1 – We should get every bit the odds on this one. Most people will look at his win in the Bluegrass as a fluke and his only two dirt starts where he was beaten by daylight, and pass over this one. Whitey says not so fast. There is a lot to like, especially if you can forgive his dirt races at age 2. That’s right, I am drawing a line through them based on the fact that if you read the charts – his trackman comments say he was racing green, was rank and off slow. I was at Saratoga when he made his debut as a 2 yo at 34-1 and ran 3rd. He ran into a monster Asmussen horse that day called Wine Police, who was runaway and the 2nd place finisher was another quality horse – Soldat. His 2nd career race he ran into 3 pretty good horses. The 2nd place finisher was Joe Vann who took the Illinois Derby and the 3rd place finisher was Much Macho Man. His trainer Albetrani has basically said that the horse was not ready at 2 and those races should be tossed. In a field that looks like a bunch of donkeys, why not take a flier on a horse that is bred for the dirt (by Dynaformer who sired Barbaro) is bred for the distance (has Tomlinson’s number one rating (336) to get the distance) and you get tons of value with the odds. Should also be a mid-pack horse and if he saves ground on the final turn and finds an opening, he can make some noise late. Rosario in the irons is a positive, as he has been one of the country’s leading riders over the last 3 years.
8 – Dialed In 4-1 – Throwing in the Zito horse for my exotics for defensive purposes only, as I don’t think he offers much value in the win pool. He is a one run closer who will need racing luck to weave his way through 18 other horses. His chances improve with a hot pace. Overall form looks great and Zito is the master at getting his horses ready for big races.
Other Contenders:
Whitey will be using some of the below in exotics:
11 – Master of Hounds 30-1 – He is the classic X factor in here as he ships in for a crafty Ireland trainer in Aiden O’Brien. Whitey ended his hate relationship with Garrett Gomez as he won with Blame in the Classic last year earning Whitey stacks. Go Go is due for his first Derby victory. One interesting note, this horse has the most dosage points in the field (by a landslide) – he has 56, so he may be the best bred horse to get the derby distance. Not sure how the horse was 7-2 in his only other race in the states in the breeders cup Juvenile Turf and has raced one other time – coming in 2nd – and Battaglia makes him 30-1 in here. Seems way to high. His sire Kingmambo sired last year’s monster horse – Eskendereya – who would have crushed the field in the derby last year if he didn’t get hurt prior to the race. If there ever was a year for a Euro shipper to take the derby, this could be it, given the vulnerability of the north American 3 year olds.
1 – Archarcharch – 10-1 – Got a perfect set-up in the Arkansas Derby. He was one of many come from behind horses to win at Oaklawn that day so perhaps he was aided by the closers track bias. Horse has talent and should appreciate the distance, but the rail draw leave me wanting to pass. May use defensively and if it rains would definitely throw in the mix.
19 – Nehro – 6-1 – He will be the classic wise guy horse. He was closing at shorter distances so the wise guy thinks the extra distance will make the difference. I can see him clunking up for 3rd or 4th but that’s about it.
14 – Shackleford – 12-1 – Not in love with this horse but the only reason he shows up is that he will move way up in my rankings if the track comes up sloppy. His best chance of winning is if a storm rolls through Louisville about an hour before the race. Like his tactical speed but the Derby distance is somewhat of a question mark as Forestry does not induce much stamina in his progeny.
13 – Mucho Macho Man 12-1 – Gritty type may have the grinding style to get a share of the exotics. Had a foot problem in the last race so he is eligible to improve in the derby. He is another one that moves way up on an off track.
2 – Twice the Appeal – 20-1 – Gets Calvin Borel so he will go off at less than 15-1. Borel will be riding the rails again and try for another derby miracle. My initial thought was to toss this guy but after closer inspection, it looks like his best races have been on the dirt and Borel knows how to ride in the derby.
If the Track comes up wet (they are calling for a 40% chance of storms) here are the horses who should benefit;
-Soldat
-Shackleford
-Archarcharch
-Pants on Fire
-Mucho Macho Man
Whitey Disclaimer:
The Derby’s large field makes it difficult for the best horse to win and racing luck plays a huge role in the outcome. Anyone that can say that they have a good feel for this year’s derby and is confident in their pick is delusional. This year’s crop looks similar to a NW3 Allowance race and I suspect that some of the horse’s will eventually find themselves in the starting gate at Penn National before their career’s end. Whitey’s confidence level for this race is extremely low so I would say tread lightly. If there ever was a year to pick numbers out of hat this could be it. If you don’t want to do that take 4 horses that you like above and play a nice exacta box. The Super could pay over a 100K this year.
As always, best of luck !
Halpren’s Analysis:
I see this race playing out with a lot of speed at the onset, followed by some stalkers and closers making late moves, sprinkled in with the some speed holding up late. Comma to the Top (6) will be breaking for the lead out of the gate and will get it. Pants on Fire (7) and Decisive Moment (5) will also battle for the lead early on although they don’t have the form to go the distance. Soldat(17) and Shackelford (14) will also be near the pace. Look for contenders such as Dialed In(8) Mucho Macho Man (13) to settle towards the back of the pack. ArchArchArch(1) will get the rail and nestle in mid pack if not further back.
My pick all week was ArchArchArch and then he drew the 1 post position. That put me in a tough spot as I really like this horse yet the 1 is not ideal. Yes it’s the rail and the rail is where you want to be, but with a 19 horse field you can squeezed. There will be mad scramble out of the gate for that rail and ArchArchArch will not go to the lead so he will have to settle back pretty far at first. What he has going for him is that he’s a versatile horse who won his last race (Arkansas Derby) by coming from way of the pace going 4 wide to win. For that reason I am sticking with him as I just have to trust myself here.
There is chance of late day rain for the race and if that is the case I really like my second choice, Soldat (17). He has shown good tactical speed and his 17 post position sets him up well for staying just off the pace. Dialed In(8) is a horse that loves to lay back and come on in the end. If he falls too far back this is the type of race that he can get lost in as the traffic jams are rough. All in all he’s probably the best horse in this field (as his morning line odds show) so I expect him to get into the money. Shackleford (14) is someone who will go out towards the lead and you’d expect this type of horse to eventually get swallowed up by the field, but I don’t see this happening. He is a very impressive looking horse, very big and strong and improving. He’s had very good work all week at Churchill Downs and I think he’s prime for a great race on Saturday.
There are 3 other horses in this field I will be including in my wagering. The first of which is Animal Kingdom(16). At 30-1 (I suspect he’ll go off closer to 20-1) he’s got tremendous value. He’s never run a bad race and has cashed in all 4 lifetime starts. He’s bred for the distance and I can see him making a late push for the money. The next horse I like in this mix is Santiva(12). He’s a stalker who’s bred for the distance and the son of the leading sire in North America over the last 2 years. He has also won a race previously at CD. The last horse I’m putting in the mix is the sentimental favorite (see trainer’s story) Mucho Macho Man(13). Another stalking horse who has been very consistent in 8 lifetime starts. I like his PP and his pace figures on dirt are very good. There are some concerns about his training this week which makes me a bit hesitant, but I will consider him in exotics.
I’m going to place some small tri and super boxes getting those 7 horses in the mix but I will be hitting the exacta and tri box hard with 1-17-8-14 and I’ll obviously be throwing some money on the 1 to win.
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