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Whitey Preakness Analysis

Given the fact that my Derby picks will go down in history as the worst picks ever and the fact that I haven’t had much time to cap the Preakness due to work demands, I’m demoting myself in the batting order and will Gave Dave Halpren center stage for this blog entry. Typically, line up demotions result in one of two things. Guy sulks on the bench and threatens not to play or he steps up in a big way now that the pressure is off. Hopefully, it’s the latter.

I have included some other price plays on the Preakness undercard at Pimlico for degenerates who will be visiting the local OTB.

Dave’s Analysis:

Below is your 2011 Preakness guide with horse by horse analysis along with how I am going to bet it.
You can read my analysis below but in case you just want my picks, here is my predicted order of finish for each horse (listed with their post position). As you can see my pick to win is the 6 horse Sway Away. I see the SUPERFECTA as 6-9-5-1

Predicted Finish Horse (Post Position)
1. Sway Away (6)
2. Mucho Macho Man (9)
3. Shackleford (5)
4. Astrology (1)
5. Animal Kingdom (11)
6. Dialed-In (10)
7. Dance City (8)
8. Midnight Interlude (7)
9. Mr. Commons (14)
10. Norman Asbjornson (2)
11. King Congie (3)
12. Flashpoint (4)
13. Concealed Identity (13)
14. Isn’t He Perfect (12)

How I will bet it:
$2 ex box 6-9-5-1-11-10 $60
$1 tri box 6-9-5-1-11-10 $120
$1 super box 6-9-5-1 $24
$50 to win & place on 6 $100

Post Horse ML Jockey Trainer Last Race
1 Astrology 15-1 Mike Smith Steve Asmussen 2rd Jerome Stakes

Jockey Mike Smith jumped off Mr Commons to ride Astrology who was considered a top 5 horse early on the Derby Trail.
Great workout at Churchill on May 9th signals he’s ready here. But the rail isn’t a great post draw.
Last horse to win from here at the Preakness was Tabasco Cat in ’94, although there have been a lot of long shots who have drawn the rail since then.
Astrology has never finished outside the money in 7 career starts.

2 Norman Asbjornson 30-1 Julian Pimentel Chris Grove 4th Wood Memorial

May show some early speed…has hit the board as a longshot several times so far, outside shot at an exotic

3 King Congie 20-1 Robby Albarado Tom Albertrani 3rd Blue Grass Stakes

2 races on dirt have been awful…he’s a turf horse and will not factor here, he’s a closer but I suspect he will be too far off the pace to be a factor.

4 Flashpoint 20-1 Cornelio Velasquez Wesley Ward 4th Florida Derby

Fastest horse in the field, He will get out to the lead and make everyone catch him. Lightly raced and was intimidated in Florida Derby.
I expect him to finish near the back of the pack when it’s all said and done.

5 Shackleford 12-1 Jesus Castanon Dale Romans 4th Kentucky Derby

Will get more resistance with Dance City and Flashpoint leading the charge, but this is a big horse who can run a long way near the lead, if he can stay just off the pace he could definitely get a piece again.
Missed second in the derby by just a length. Many forget this horse would have won the Derby if it were the length of the Preakness, he controlled the Derby and that should not be taken lightly here.
Will battle for the lead and go for it and I think will hit the board.

6 Sway Away 15-1 Garrett Gomez Jeff Bonde 4th Arkansas Derby
Could be sitting on a monster. He has worked as well as any Derby/Preakness contender at Churchill Downs before and after the first Saturday in May

(didn’t make the cut for the Derby due to too few graded stakes earnings–he was the last horse to miss the cut— but was prepared to run in case others ahead of him were to scratch). So he is rested and ready for this race.

Last time out in the Arkansas Derby he came from behind and was sitting in first at the top of stretch and inexplicably finished 4th, many suggest this was the jockey’s fault and that is why Gomez is now aboard, which I like….
trainer will also make slight adjustments to blinkers.. will come from behind and hopefully not give up the lead this time. Sway Away’s sire is ’05 Preakness winner Afleet Alex.

7 Midnight Interlude 15-1 Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 16th Kentucky Derby

Bouncing back from a 16th place finish in the Derby from this lightly raced horse makes me look the other way. Has added blinkers and should run better but won’t be enough.
I’d consider throwing him into a superfecta.

8 Dance City 12-1 Ramon Dominguez Todd Pletcher 3rd Arkansas Derby

Will try and set pace with Flashpoint…Pletcher would not have some here with this horse if he didn’t think he had a shot here. Has speed and stamina and is a bit of a sleeper pick.
I will try and stay away as I believe in too many others ahead of him.

9 Mucho Macho Man 6-1 Rajiv Maragh Kathy Ritvo 3rd Kentucky Derby

Can easily make up the 2+ lengths he lost to Animal Kingdom by in the Derby. I like his running style and I expect him to beat AK this week and finish in the money.

10 Dialed In 9-2 Julien Leparoux Nick Zito 8th Kentucky Derby

The Derby favorite drops to 2nd choice here and at 9-2 (may go off closer to 3-1) has some value. Has the closing kick to make noise here and with 5 less horses to contend with may be able to win.
My gut says there is too much work to do late and it will cost him just like Derby. A very interesting side note about Dialed In–
Because he won the Holy Bull Stakes and the Florida Derby he will win a 5.5 million dollar bonus if he wins the Preakness….a fact that some suggest may have lead his racing team to hold back in the Derby, if you can believe that.

11 Animal Kingdom 2-1 John Velazquez Graham Motion 1st Kentucky Derby

I liked him as a sleeper in the Derby at 20+-1 odds…at 2-1, not too excited. As we saw with Super Saver last year, AK could easily be a one and done horse.
The slow pace at the Derby benefited him as he didn’t fall too far off the pace. With speedsters Flashpoint and Dance City in the mix the pace will be much quicker and personally I don’t see this helping him.
The Derby was his first dirt race and obviously he liked it, but on 2 weeks rest at short odds I will try and beat the favorite here although I will still put him into the mix for the exacta and tri wagering .

12 Isn’t He Perfect 30-1 Edgar Prado Doodnauth Shivmangal 5th Jerome Stakes

The answer to his name is “far from”….if he finishes better than 10th, call it a nice day.

13 Concealed Identity 30-1 Sheldon Russell Edmond Gaudet 1st Tesio Stakes

Always a local horse enters at the Preakness and always is a longshot who finishes as predicted…..nothing new this year with this horse.
Will have some early speed but this post doesn’t help. He is the son of Smarty Jones (’04 Derby and Preakness winner) which will probably garner some respect but this horse is not ready for prime time.

14 Mr. Commons 20-1 Victor Espinoza John Shirreffs 3rd Santa Anita Derby

With a better post draw I may have considered him. Will have early speed here and could be on the lead for a decent portion of the race.

Whitey’s Preakness plays and undercard selections

Race 3 – Here is a nice turf race that could produce some nice prices

6 – Battleground – 20-1 – Only had one turf start in his career but I think he has some sneaky turf breeding and he is the only speed in the race. Chance to wire the field at price.
11 – Rampaige – 10-1 – Sometimes when the trainer has a favorite in the race – it’s the other runner who outperforms and surprises. He has never been on the turf but he should like it as he won on sysnthetics beating a very good horse in Wilkinson, who came back to win a stake at FG. In his last two, he lost to two stakes horses, so toss those. Trainer good with first turf.
6-9-11 exacta box

Race 7
3- Stormy the Cat 20-1 – Degenerate followers know that Whitey is in love with this horse. He has had some tough trips and has hidden talent. He could surprise today with a clean trip.
3-10 exacta box

Race 8
I am very excited about this race. 7 of the 9 horses want the lead which will set it up for a closer.

2 – Heritage Hall – 15 -1 – He is one of 2 horse who can capitalize on a speed duel. Trainer hitting at 30%. Philly park form usually travels well and the cut back to 6 furlongs improves his chances.

1 – My Cuz CJ – 20-1 – Another closer who loves the distance and is 1 for 1 at Pimlico. His last was a prep for this. Can blow up board

Race 10
6 – Our Dark Knight 20-1 – Zito has been known to throw up a bomb on big day undercards so watch the board on this one. It’s more of a hunch play as there are no superstars in this field and he may hit the board at a price.

Race 13 – Love these Maiden turfers. It’s a Whitey speciality.
6 – Schoolhouse Woods – 15- 1 – Gets Lasix for turf debut. Bred to win on turf by Sky Classic. Trainer is very underrated on turf.
Exacta box 1-6-7

Preakness Plays
I have capped this race for all of 15 minutes so wager at your own risk.
I see two possible scenarios on how the race will unfold. One – A speed horse gets loose and wires a field full of donkeys. Two – The speed burns each other out setting it up for a closer.
I’m leaning towards scenario number 1 but will cover myself with a play for scenario 2

4 – Flashpoint – 20-1 – Was very impressive winning the G1 Hutchinson at GP. He is the speed of the speed and has only one chance – gun to the front and hope the two other speed horses – Shackleford and Dance City don’t run with him and burn him out. You can toss his last as the trainer tried to experiment in the Florida Derby and rate him. The owners rewarded the trainer by firing him. Now, the hottest trainer on the planet takes over in Wesley Ward. Whitey thinks there is a good chance he will make the lead – but the two questions are – how fats will he go to get the lead and if he gets the lead is is he good enough? Who knows, but at 20-1 I’ll be happy to get a run for my money if he is in the lead entering the stretch. A wire job is possible considering the donkeys running behind him.
So under this scenario, I see the other speed horses and those close to the pace folding like a cheap tent chasing my top pick. Therefore, I will use the closers underneath to clunk up for the exotics. I will look for dialed in, Sway away, longshot Concealed Identity, Much Macho Man, and Animal Kingdom as the chief rivals to grab that share.
Whitey Saver Play

6 – Sway Away – 15-1 – First of all we won’t get 15-1 on this horse as he is becoming the buzz horse – aka wise guy horse – that everyone is jumping on. These horses rarely win but with this years crop, who knows. Liked his middle move in the Arkansas Derby but the Jockey moved way too soon . Now Gomez jumps aboard and I think he will get a more patient ride. Son of Afleet Alex will have the sentimental backing at Pimlico. Projected off odds – 8-1 for trainer hitting at 35% in graded stakes.

Longshots to Consider
13 – Concealed Identity – 30-1 – He is 2 for 2 at Pimlico, winning some minor stakes. Horse for course angle is often underrated and local horses have a history of blowing up the exotics board in the Preakness. Should be staking the pace from the outside and may get a clean trip – if he is good enough has an outside chance for a 2nd or 3rd place finish. Let’s face it – the 3yo’s this year don’t strike any fear so why not consider a fresh face on the scene.

8 – Dance City – 20-1 – One of my favorite angles is horses who achieve career best pace and speed figs in the same race. That’s what he did in the Arkansas Derby – which may be playing out as a key race. He was compromised that day by a strong closers bias. Only one horse won on the lead all day. Pletcher and Dominguez are lethal together so why not throw a saver on him. He will probably rate off Flashpoint’s lead, which will give him best shot to win.

1 – Astrology – 15-1 – Here is one who might benefit from the extra distance. By a son of AP Indy, he might be sitting on a big one 3rd off layoff and trained by white hot Asmussen.

Others to Consider

10 – Dialed In – 9-2 – Was compromised by slow derby pace but the pace could be quicker today which may set up his late kick a little better.

9- Mucho Macho Man – 6-1 – You can’t leave him out of exotics. Very consistent hard knocker type is a good play underneath

11 – Animal Kingdom 2-1 – No one really ran a lick in the Derby so can’t say I’m thrilled about using him underneath. Lesson learned, Churchill and Aqueduct’s inner track are very conducive to turf runners. Will use defensively underneath.

Whitey Plays
$30 Win and Place on 4
$15 win on 6

$2 Blow up the board exacta boxes – $60
4-6-9-13
4-6-9-8
4-6-1

$1 Trifecta Key – $54
4-6 with 9-10-11 with 9-10-11-4-6-8- 1-13

$2 Super Key Play
4 with 6 with 9-10-11 with 9-10-11-13 – $18

$10 Retirement Super
10 with 4-6 with 9 with 13 – $20