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Belmont Picks

After two disappointing legs of the Triple Crown, Whitey will try and redeem himself.

Whitey’s Top 5

2 – Stay Thirsty – 20-1- I said before the Derby that he would be my Belmont pick and I am not wavering. I predicted he would get better with distance and time and he should appreciate the time off and a return to NY. Pletcher known to get his horses cranked and my guess is the Derby was a prep for this. Plus, he raced on a dead rail at Churchill and that may hurt his chances. Wet will only help this one. Like the jockey switch to red hot Castellano.

3 – Ruler on Ice – 20 -1 -This is a bomb that can make some noise. Whitey thinks that this guy is going to the front with the blinkers added and his trainer has put some speed in his workouts. Belmont has been speed favoring all meet so a merry go round race could be on tap. In a year where all the 3yo’s are a bunch of donkeys why not go with the fresh face at a huge price.

10 – Mucho Macho Man – Gets Dominguez who won 6 races on Sunday and he should appreciate a wet track. Had shoe problems. Will downgrade if fast track

12 – Schakleford – 9-2 – Like him to hold on for a piece on a wet track. He is not getting bet and he offers value in exotics

1 – Master Of Hounds 10 -1 – He will be way over bet but could hit the board.

Also consider Santiva and Isint he Perfect in exotics

Dave Halpren’s Analysis
Predicted Finish Horse (Post Position)

1. Master of Hounds (1)

2. Brilliant Speed (5)

3. Santiva (4)

4. Animal Kingdom (9)

5. Shackleford (12)

6. Ruler on Ice (3)

7. Stay Thirsty (2)

8. Nehro (6)

9. Mucho Macho Man (10)

10. Prime Cut (8)

11. Monzon (7)

12. Isn’t He Perfect (11)

Summary

The Belmont Stakes is the final leg of the Triple Crown. It is also by far the longest race these horses will have run to date which is 1 ½ miles (The Derby was 1 ¼). Breeding/Bloodlines are a key in this race as many horses are not equipped to go this distance. There has been much talk this Triple Crown season about this crop of 3 year olds not being very good. Well at this point, while that may be true, it doesn’t really matter. We’ve seen 2 horse really emerge, Animal Kingdom, the late charging winner of the Kentucky Derby who also finished 2nd in the Preakness and Shackleford, the Front-running winner of the Preakness who also got beat late in the Kentucky Derby finishing 4th. These horses are definitely the best horses in the field at the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, however, this is also their 3rd race in 5 weeks and that’s why there are a few other horses who have legit shots to finish on top. If the toll of the past 2 races takes effect, I can see these two getting beat, if it doesn’t, then it won’t surprise me at all to see them finish 1-2.

This is a 12 horse field and unfortunately I think there are 7 to 8 horses who have legit shots to get into the mix. So I have to start drawing lines in the sand and take a stand. You can’t bet the whole field so I’ve got to narrow this down to 6 horses who I will use on a $1 tri ticket ($120).

Shackleford is the lone early speed horse in this field. He will go to the lead with Master of Hounds and Santiva on the rail close behind. Nehro will also stay close to the pace. Brilliant Speed, Stay Thirsty, Ruler on Ice and Animal Kingdom will try to come off the pace. If the weather forecast holds true (very good chance this is an off-track) I tend to think Shackleford will do quite well as sloppy conditions favor speed horses. One horse who doesn’t appear to like the slop is the morning line second choice, Nehro. I am betting against him this week.

At 2-1, Animal Kingdom is the favorite and in my opinion he is the best horse in this field. I liked him in the Derby at 20-1 and in the Preakness I had him the mix but tried to beat him. This week I will again do much of the same. I can’t exclude him as I think he’s just too talented and training very well, but I will look for a few others to grab the top spots and keep AK in the mix for the top 3 or 4.

Nehro at 4-1 is the 2nd choice according the morning line and he is fresher than the AK and Shack but I don’t like his breeding for this distance and as just mentioned I don’t like the fact that rain may be in the mix. I will try win without him in the mix. I will probably look back on this and regret it, but at a short price and many other horses I like in the mix, I have to take a stand here.

Shackleford is the 3rd favorite at 9-2 and even though I don’t think he’s bred for this distance, I think he has to be in the mix, especially with the potential for rain.

Mucho Macho Man is the 4th choice right now and still a popular public play. He finished well at the Derby, charging for 3rd but was disappointing in the Preakness finishing 6th. Many say he is looking good this week, but I am not buying it. He’s had shoe issues last race and in the past and this being the third race in 5 weeks I will look elsewhere.

The 3 horses who I think can really pull it off this week all are coming into this race with the same past performance. All three last raced at the Kentucky Derby and they all finished in a virtual dead heat for 5th, 5 ½ lengths back of the winner Animal Kingdom. They also all were very hard charging at the end of that race, passing many horses in the stretch. In addition, all three of these colts are bred for the distance and had the luxury of skipping the Preakness, which makes them a little more appealing then the favorite Animal Kingdom. The horses I’m referring to are Master of Hounds, Brilliant Speed and Santiva. It won’t shock me at all to see them all finish like they did at the Derby, except this time 1-2-3 instead of 5-6-7.

2 other horses I will mention are Ruler on Ice and Stay Thirsty. The former is someone I will probably put in the mix who I think has an outside shot to shock everyone. The latter has the right trainer and breeding but just hasn’t shown me enough to date to warrant serious consideration.