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Whitey’s Derby Breakdown

Welcome to the 3rd online version of my Kentucky Derby Field Analysis and Picks…

For several years, myself and fellow capper Dave Halpren published our Derby picks via spreadsheet. I have included Dave as a guest capper on this blog to keep the tradition alive, and his picks are included at the bottom of this post. Dave cold decked the exacta in the 2010 derby, and Whitey provided the Exacta box in last year’s Belmont that netted $928 for 2 bucks.

Looks like a very strong field for the 138th running of the Derby, which makes ‘value’ the theme for the day. Normally, you can eliminate half the field with no chance to win, but this year marks a stark contrast to the donkey-fests we have witnessed in the last couple of years.

I’ll wait to post time to make final wagering strategy based on track condition – there is a 40% chance of a thunderstorm Saturday.

My predicted order of finish:
1-Union Rags – Horse 4
2- Hansen – Horse 14
3-Alpha – Horse 11
4-Creative Cause – Horse 8
5-El Padrino – Horse 16

Union Rags (9-2)– Lots to like about this horse. The only question mark here is value. Installed as the 2nd choice, may be hard to swallow a win wager in a 20 horse field. To all who question the ride and trip in the Florida Derby, you shouldn’t be shocked that a horse who was guaranteed a derby start didn’t look like he was giving his all to win. Perhaps the trainer was looking for a useful effort and instructed the jock to leave something in the tank for the 1st Saturday in May. Personally, I loved the prep and expect him to move forward from it. Not exactly thrilled with post draw but you have to put that in the Jockeys hands, and hope he can break well and secure a forward or mid pack position into the first turn. If he gets the trip, he wins. Keying in tris up top.

Hansen (10-1) – Horse has finished no worse than 2nd in all his career starts, but what is most impressive to me was his win in last year’s Juvenile race at CD where he ran on the lead and on the rail. Both were against the bias as closers who raced wide dominated the 2 day race championships. By the way, just to note, that was a key race as all of the runners from that race have won stakes races since, so that was a good field. Some may be jumping off the bandwagon after the 2nd place in the Bluegrass, but again he raced against a closers bias and was pushed in the middle part of the race. Love the 14 post and outside stalking speed situation, as he should get first run on the closers turning from home. A win bet here might be recommended as well as an exacta wheel with Hansen for 2nd could be lucrative if a bomb wins.

Alpha (15-1) – Probably one of the best from a breeding standpoint and is Whitey’s early pick for the Belmont. He has been a completely different horse since adding Lasix and the Wood prep was underrated from a quality perspective. He had trouble that day checking early and then rallying wide on the final turn. That was not a winning move that day as speed and the rail were best. The pace numbers are fantastic and this has been one of the litmus tests in recent derbys (well, at least since I have been tracking). Based on running style, he should be stalking the speed and tractable speed horses and should sit the perfect trip in 3rd flight, and be set to pounce on the final turn. Win wager recommended.

Creative Cause (12-1) – He is kind of the forgotten horse leading up to the derby, which is a head scratcher when you look at his form. Horse really hasn’t done anything wrong and has great breeding for the distance and an awesome derby breeding profile. On the positive, you should get good value if you like this one because of the rumors of a foot issue and some have questioned the training regimen – of course, the trainer has assured the public there are no foot issues and everything is fine.

El Padrino (20-1) – The other Pletcher horse may be closing late and is worth a small saver bet. I think he bounced in the Fla Derby off a very hard fought win at FG, and being wide certainly didn’t help matters. One of the downfalls of the betting public – be it a triple crown race or a 5K claimer – is the public is too rigid when it comes to forgiving a bad race. That’s where value cappers like Whitey clean up. Toss it and then see if he still fits based on the previous form. He does here and Pletcher is the man. Love the jockey switch to Bejarano, and if it comes up wet this one will move up even more on my chart.

Bomber Alert:
12 – Prospective (30-1) – Those Tampa shippers always seem to run well at CD and I think Malibu Moon is the best stallion to come from AP Indy. Has trained well since arriving at CD.

20 – Liaison (50-1) – Bob Baffert at price. Puts blinkers back on. Throw 2 bucks down – money well spent.

Exotic Alert:

These horses may round out trifectas and supers if pace is strong:
10 – Daddy Knows Best (15-1) – Training great and is the buzz horse this week.
5 – Dullahan (8-1) – Will be including if track comes up wet. Should be rolling late.
2 – Optimizer – Is a better grass horse but may rally late for minor share.

Others to Note:
Bodemeister – Race favorite. In 5 years he will be mentioned in same breath as Smarty Jones or Bellamy Road (horse with inflated speed figs against weak competition). I’m hoping the latter.

Gemologist – Undefeated. Had perfect trip in Wood and avoided the top competition. May use defensively in exotics but leaning against for now.

Take Charge Indy – Whitey has a future bet on him at 38-1 so if he wins all the better. But, no value here as 15-1 morning line will turn into 8-1 with Borel – He was on a 30-1 donkey last year and went off at 10-1.

Horses to move up in the slop:

If you have the luxury of waiting till post time to place your best you may want to move up these horses on your value board:

Take Charge Indy
Dullahan
El Padrino
Bodemesiter
Liaison
Prospective
Rousing Sermon
Went the Day Well
Hansen
Union Rags

Pace / Race Set-up
There should be plenty of pace in here as Trinniberg will be out there winging it. Those connections would have been better off waiting to the Preakness. Look for a half mile fraction of 46 flat with 9 in front and 14 and 6 tracking in 2nd flight and the 3, 4, 11, 15, 19 in 3rd and 4th stalking flights.

Look for the 14 to poke his nose in front turning from home overtaking the 6.

Look for the 4 to overtake the 14 near the wire and the 11 or 8 rounding out the trifecta.

Whitey’s blow up the board Super:
1 – 4
2 – 14
3 – 8/11
4 – All
$1 = $34

Good Luck

Halpren Picks:

As I’ve stated many times over the years, the Kentucky Derby is the hardest race of the year to cap. Not only do you have to go over the dozens of factors that go into making a Derby champion, but you have to do it for 20 horses. The typical field is 13 max, except for the Derby which allows 20. When this many horses get together, not only do you have to be the best 3 year old, you have to avoid getting a “bad trip” as you contend with 19 other horses on the track, something none of these horses have had to deal with in their lifetimes.

In this 138th installment of the Run for the Roses, we have in my opinion one of the deepest fields in a long time. It would not shock me at all to see one of 11 different horses come out on top. But that is a cop-out so I will be brave and offer up what I think will happen on Saturday.

How I see it unfolding
Trinniberg (9) will go out to the lead early. I see Hansen (14) and Bodemeister (6) staying close to the pace. Gemologist (15) and Creative Cause (8) won’t be too far back. Union Rags (4) and Dullahan (5) and will settle mid pack. Daddy Knows Best (10) will sit a little further back along with Rousing Sermon (7). As the field heads for home I see Gemologist and Dullahan emerging with Union Rags just behind. Daddy Knows Best will make a strong push to the finish.

My pick as of last week was Dullahan (5). This horse really impressed me last time out and I think he has a lot of horse left to win the Derby. The one drawback on him is the fact that he’s not seen success on a dirt surface, although he has taken to the track this week quite well. Synthetic/Polly track vs Dirt is always a big debate come Derby day but last year’s winner Animal Kingdom was facing similar questions and he came through just fine. I love Dullahan’s running style and if the track comes up wet, I like him to win. My official pick for him isn’t first, but I won’t be leaving him off any multi horse bets. I can see him finishing anywhere from 1st to 8th, but I’m leaning towards top 3.

Union Rags (4) is the best horse in this field in terms of all-around attributes. Whether that translates to a win remains to be seen. The fact that he’ll go off at about 4-1 offers little value and for that reason I will look elsewhere for a winner, but I certainly can’t discount him in any way, shape or form on Saturday. If he doesn’t finish in the top 3 I’ll be shocked.

Gemologist (15) is undefeated and showed last time out that when challenged, he has another gear to go to. A horse that has never lost is a horse very much worth betting based on Derby history. And the fact that he’ll be atleast the 3rd choice if not worse at odds around 6-1 or higher, he offers a bit of value as well. I don’t discount him from winning at all and if he finishes beyond 4 or 5 it will be a surprise.

Daddy Knows Best (10) is a horse that in my opinion offers the best shot at winning with the most value. He will likely go off at at least 12-1 if not more. He has the late closing running style that sets up perfectly for this type of race, especially if Trinniberg gets into a battle early with Bodemeister and Hansen. I also love his post position as the 10 gets loaded in the gate last, lower chance of getting worked up in the gate expending energy. This horse has looked extremely impressive in workouts this week has very impressive performance numbers throughout his campaign. Sometimes you have to go out on a limb when making a pick in this type of race and here is my spot. I am taking Daddy Knows Best to win and will include him on all tickets.

Long Shots who could come in the money
El Padrino (16) who may offer as much as 20-1 odds
Prospective (12) – could be as high as 30-1
Rousing Sermon (7) – 35-1

MY OFFICIAL PICKS
1. Daddy Knows Best (10)
2. Dullahan (5)
3. Union Rags (4)
4. Gemologist (15)
——————————-
5. Hansen (14)
6. Bodemeister (6)
7. Creative Cause (8)

I’m going to place some small tri and super boxes getting those 7 horses in the mix but I will be hitting the exacta and tri box hard with 10-5-4-15 and I’ll obviously be throwing some money on the 10 to win.