Capper's Corner

While it’s doubtful we will be able to duplicate 2011 results, we will look to improve off a disappointing Derby. Overall, Whitey has had the most success in the Belmont and confidence is high.

This year’s Belmont took a hit when the race favorite was scratched yesterday. What we are left with is a bunch of unproven triple crown horses and a watered down field of new shooters that makes the race look like an allowance event.

In these mile and a half racers the grinders do well and pedigree is key. Pace figures become even more important in these marathons as the horses with weak pace figures seem to crumble when the real running starts.

I think only 3 horses can win and two of them will be bet. We will look to make our score today with trifectas and superfectas. Yeah sounds like a pipe dream but if you narrow down the contenders that can win then these exotics become easier as you can then spread in the bottom tiers.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1 – Paynter – 9 horse – The Bob Baffert horse is the most likely pace setter and probably one of the best bred to get a mile and a half. Doesn’t look like too much pace in race so comfortable fractions of 48 and change or 49 is possible. I like the outside post as he can see how the race develops in the race into the first turn. He does lack seasoning and that his only knock, but in a field lacking superstars, why not go with the fresh face. This angle was money last year as new shooter ruler on ice splashed his way to victory against a non-descript bunch of 3yo’s. Likely off odds 7-2.

2 – Union Rags – 3 horse– Got awful trip in the derby thanks to his Jockey. The rider switch today is a positive and the longer race should give him ample opportunity to stay clear of trouble. He does have a win over the Belmont strip and talent-wise he may be the best of the crop. The main contender to beat my top and will be including up top in tris and supers. He likely will be an 8-5 favorite at post time.

3 – My Adonis – 12 horse -– Trainer scored big upset in last years Belmont and gets a huge rider switch as leading NY Jockey Dominguez gets on board. Like his pace figs a lot and has grinding style needed in Belmont. His last race is a toss as he was vanned the morning of that race from Churchill to Pimlico and its understandable he wasn’t at his best with no workouts over that track. Has tactical speed to sit in 2nd flight and outside draw gives him options. Breeding is good for distance. Probable off odds 15-1 and deserves a saver win bet.

4 – Five Sixteen – 7 horse – Looks like a donkey on paper with only a maiden score in tow, but Whitey says not so fast. There are a couple of angles in play that could move him up for an in the money finish. First and foremost, his pace figures are a fit and is 2nd time blinks. In his last race, he faced older horses and now comes back to the 3yo rank. That’s a money angle for Whitey over the years, especially in the spring/early summer. The horse he lost to was a monster pletcher runner who came back to be one of the favorites in yesterdays G1 race for older horses. Can improve today and is by Champion Invasor so distance should not be a problem. Will probably get some win bets from the women population (female jockey) and people whose birthday is May 16th. Whitey will be using this longshot and playing underneath.

5 – Street Life – 1 horse – Quickly becoming a wise guy horse due to his fast close in the Peter Pan. He is not getting 109 and change fractions for 6 furlongs so he will be compromised. Still, I can envision him clunking up for 3rd or 4th late and spoil superfectas.

Betting Preferences:
Key Paynter and Rags up top in Tris and supers.
Small win bet on My Adonis.

Will be using Dullahan defensively underneath as he could hit board as one of the favorites.