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Welcome to the Ponycapper Experiment.

With the dawning of 2013, I have decided to devote this blog to making money on the ponies. In 2011 a similar attempt was made but it blew up when the Degenerate Fund went bankrupt after about 6 months. The fund did turn a profit but upon reflection, it was quite obvious that the handicapping was not up to par to sustain profitability. Basically, the fund made money form a few longshots and big exacta payoffs from the 2011 Belmont. Once those big payouts dried up, the fund was doomed, and hence profits and available bankroll dissipated and the fund dissolved.

I’ve had a chance to reflect on what went wrong, and have documented all the lessons learned. In addition, over the course of the last few months I have built an arsenal of capping angles, and have formulated a more structured approach to each racing circuit. These things should serve me well as the Ponycapper Experiment will look to avoid the same pitfalls experienced in 2011.

Here is a snapshot of the Ponycapper experiment, including objectives, goals, strategy, and success factors.

Objective
An online blog dedicated to making profits and improving handicapping arsenal.

Goals
It would be difficult to come up with a profitability number per year given the volatility expected for the ponycapper account. If we are still operational after year 1, and showing a profit, that would be great. By Year 2 and 3 I would like to be showing a profit. 10K profit in 3 years would be a nice starting goal.

Strategy/Approach
The PE will post picks each day that fall under 4 basic categories and we will track the results, including profits and key handicapping lessons learned. Most of the picks will be posted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday as to avoid work conflicts. In addition to the selections, the rationale or handicapping angles will be listed. A recap of the previous days selections will be posted with net profits/losses and capping lessons learned.

A structured wagering strategy will be used as outlined below.

Success Factors
I will use the following principles in order to maximize the chances for success:
•I will focus only a few designated tracks, which play to my strength – For the first 5 months of the year I will focus primarily on Tampa Bay Downs but may mix in a few plays from Santa Anita and Gulfstream.
•I will focus on only a few race conditions, which play to my strengths
•I will limit the number of plays to only the very best – Wagering on too many tracks and races is a recipe for disaster
•I will use a designated wagering structure for Phase 1 of the experiment. One lesson learned from before was too much of the bankroll was in play in any given week and it caused more volatility than is desired.
•In addition to the capping arsenal, I will build out a stable of horses based on troubled trips and key races. This proved effective in 2011.
•We will let off the gas when things are going south, and take breaks if needed. Going on sustained timeframes of losses is a good way to bankrupt the experiment so knowing when to press and take breaks is key.
•To the extent possible, bad beats and nose defeats will not affect the capping process. Staying focused is key.

Wagering Strategy

Having a set in stone wagering strategy was one of the key lessons learned from 2011. I have thought about the optimal strategy and will use the following baselines for all wagers.

Best Bets – AT least 3 positive angles and identification of a vulnerable favorite. Win wager between $30 and $40.

Value Plays – AT least 2 positive angles and identification of a vulnerable favorite. Win wager between $15 and $25.

Longshot Plays – At least 2 positive angles on a horse over 15-1 Morning line. Win wager $15, flat bet.

Spot Plays – AT least 1 positive handicapping angle. Win wager $10, flat bet

We will start out with a real bankroll of $1000. Wagers made will be done via an online account (legal of course). Hence, wagers are real and we will track progress based on the bankroll. On any given day, no more than 10% of the bankroll will be in play.

We will not be making place wagers. I’ve debated this for years and have come to the conclusion that win wagers over time yield the most profits. Also, we won’t be hedging and making multiple selections per race. That only dilutes profits. In addition, we will mix in exacta and trifecta wagers and track profitability by wager type as well. Pick 3 wagers will be placed periodically, with the assertion that the structure will use at least one single in the sequence, and that single was identified as a best bet or a value play.

The above wagering structuring will be used until we show a profit of $2000. Once that target level is reached we will mix in pick 4’s and bump up base wagers.

We will use the below format for the selections and recap.

Wager type (Best bet, value play, longshot play, spot play)
Track
Race Number
Horse Name
Horse Number

Rationale/ Key to race
Angle 1
Angle 2
Angle 3
Angle 4
Favorite Vulnerability angle

Wagers
Win bet amount
Exacta, Trifecta wagers
Total wagered

Recap
Lessons Learned
Day’s Net Profit/Loss
Cumulative Net Profit/Loss

Here is to the official launch of the Ponycapper Experiment. Hopefully, with a little luck and solid handicapping, the blog will prove to be a fun and positive learning experience, with an eye towards profitability in the years ahead.

Good luck to all followers.
Whitey