Capper's Corner

This year’s derby comes down to whether California Chrome either: A, likes the CD surface and B, can work out a trip. If the answer is yes on both fronts, the race is pretty much over and you can look to find value underneath in exotics.

With the speed signed on in the race – 6 confirmed front runners – the pace looks to be strong up front and Cal Chrome should be able to sit just off the leaders and pounce. If the pace is wickedly fast, an all-out meltdown could occur setting it up for a closer similar to what happened in the 2005 Derby with donkey boy Giacomo and closing argument rounding out an exacta that paid 9K.

Whitey’s Key Contenders and predicted Order of Finish:
1 – Medal Count – Like the way he is training and is bred to get the distance. Notably, he has 36 dosage points which is 14 higher than the next best points in the field. Most cappers will be turned off by his poor performances on dirt, but I went back to the charts at GP and it was obvious he was compromised by the bias in play at the GP meet. Post is a plus and trainer has been raving about him since he was a 2yo. If he loses, I will be playing back in Belmont.

2 – Tapiture – If this horse had won the Ark Derby he would be co-favored in the derby but he bounced from his big effort in the Rebel and also got one of the worst rides I have seen in a prep race, taken wide the whole race. Son of Tapit should be okay with the distance and could get first run on the deep closers. Like that he has a win over the track as a 2yo. He is a great candidate to hit the board, and with some luck may hold on for the win.

3 – Cal Chrome – So much to like but no value in betting to win. Must use in exotics. I do have some concerns about the distance but the way he won his preps says he may be okay. I will be hoping he runs well but not well enough to win.

4 – Commanding Curve – While not a candidate to win this unless there is a complete meltdown (2005?), he does look like a longshot horse that can clunk up for 4th and ruin most superfecta tickets, assuming the pace up front is fast and those horses are tiring late.
Others to consider and play defensively with:

– Intense Holiday – Training very well – He is kind of the buzz horse along with Danza and Pletcher is always dangerous.

-Wicked Strong – Looks like your classic grinder and is bred well for distance. Post hurts some but I just don’t think the NY group was the strongest this year so I may include in some underneath junk.

-Dance with Fate – Improving colt can work out a trip and could hit the board as longshot.

The race set up looks to be fast with tons of speed. Uncle Sigh could be the pacesetter with the additionl of blinkers. I am looking for splits of 46 flat and 110 and change. The stalkers Cal Chrome and Tapiture will pass the front runners at the top of the stretch and Medal Count will be moving on the turn, and pass Tapture late for the win and CC settling for 3rd. A deep closer – either Intense holiday or commanding curve will be flying late and get up for 4th.

With heavy favoritism expected on Cal Chrome, its not a day to back up the truck and dump it in the derby pools. But a lot can happen in horse racing, and another derby upset could be in the works. Most astute observers of this blog are aware that Whitey is in a Derby drought and my best race has been the Belmont, but there is a due factor, and it’s only a matter of time before Whitey returns to the Derby winners circle.

Good Luck