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While it is quite possible that Cal Chrome makes a mockery of the Preakness field today, and takes one step closer towards the elusive triple crown, I will be making a stand against him from a wagering perspective. He likely will go off at odds of 1 to 2 and there is no value in playing up top in Exactas and trifectas, so let’s swing for the fences and hope for some Preakness craziness.

Before I get to my picks, I would be remiss if I didn’t throw out a shout out to Smarty Jones, probably my favorite horse of all time (along with Barbaro). 10 years ago this week he trounced a Preakness field in one of the greatest moments in philly sports history. The real tragedy of the Smarty Jones story wasn’t the brutal beat in the Belmont 3 weeks later, but rather a greedy owner who took the money and ran, and retired Smarty after the Belmont. Most people think he was retired due to injury. This is incorrect. The injury he had was minor and he could have returned to racing in a few months. It is a shame his career was cut short as he could have gone down in history as one of the greatest of all time.

The pick for the Preakness is Ring Weekend – Here are 3 reasons why I will be backing him…

1 – He should get a great inside mid pack trip, and with all the speed signed on, this could be the garden spot. As I see it, Social Inclusion will go out for the lead and General A rod will be right with him to his inside. Cal Chrome will weave out – where he likes it – to secure stalking position. Ring Weekend will be saving all the ground 8 to 10 lengths from the lead at the half way point. I look for Cal Chrome to try and pounce nearing the far turn and all out duel to take place between Social Inclusion and Chrome until the top of the stretch. One will die, one will go on, but while they may have won the battle, they will lose the war as Ring Weekend will be flying, and the key is not getting stopped by a tiring A rod on the turn. If he sneaks through the rail, it could be a close finish with Ring Weekend taking it by a half length over Chrome.

2 – This horse has talent. He was all the talk leading up to the derby but he developed a fever and had to miss the run for the roses. I really have no idea why everyone has jumped off his bandwagon, but I am not complaining as we should get fair value on him in the 15 to 17 to 1 range. Two things to like about his form: One, he has stellar pace numbers, which is one of the most underrated factors 3 yo’s face as the climb the class later and tackle the big boys in the triple crown campaign. Also, I like that he has raced on the south florida circuit, both at tampa and calder, two deeper tracks known to produce stamina induced results when they ship out. Critics will say he hasn’t really faced the caliber of horses he will today, but Whitey says not so fast. The horses on this year’s TC trail – with the exception of Chrome – are a bunch of donkeys. Yes, this year’s crop is very weak, other than CC. So, throw out the class factor because the barrier is minimal, and instead focus on fitness (from the florida campaign), race set up, and a trainer who will have him cranked for a great effort. Which leads me to point 3…

3 – You have to love the trainer. He is on fire in 2014 and had a great Keeneland meet. This guy has his horses firing on all cylinders – and at prices. Based locally at Pimlico with a stable of horses, Graham Motion would love nothing more than to pull off a preakness upset.

 

Predicted order of Finish:

4 – Ring Weekend

3 – Cal Chrome – If he wins I hope he does so by 10 so I can play against the bridge jumpers in the Belmont. Its hard to knock this horse but crazy things can happen in racing and while it is likely he wins for fun, it is also possible he throws in a clunker (can you say show price bonanza and bridge jumpers take the plunge)

7 – Kid Cruz – He is the wise guy horse and all the talk. He will be 25 lengths out of it early but will rally late and has a good chance for 3^rd as he passes the tiring speed.

9 – Pablo Del Monte – He was my crazy longshot for the derby but was scratched for that race. If he can rate, he can definitely be a factor late. If he guns for the lead he will be cooked. Trainer is one of the best, yet very much under the radar in big races. Price is right to help fill in the last slot for superfecta players.

8 – Social Inclusion – There is a chance he can run a big one if the pace is uncontested. If he can slow things down he may be able to survive the heat he gets on the turn from CC. I will be playing defensively underneath, as he is a total wildcard who can finish anywhere from 2^nd place to last place.

Wagering Strategy

Win bet – Ring Weekend

Saver win bet – Pablo Del Monte

Big Ex box – Ring Weekend and CC

Small Ex box Ring weekend and Social Inclusion

Pace melt down ex box – Ring, Ride on Curlin and Kid Cruz

Trifecta Key – Straight play:

1 –Ring Weekend

2 – CC and Social Inclusion

3 – Kid Cruz and Pablo

So its 4 with 3, 8 with 7, 9

For all the number players out there, the derby exacta was 5-17, which is the date of the Preakness. The Belmont is run on June 7^th, so a saver 6-7 exacta may be a good idea. Just saying…

Good Luck