Capper's Corner

Jump to Comments

Welcome back to the Ponycapper blog…

I have enjoyed a lot of success at Tampa Bay Downs over the years and now I would like to share my picks through the Ponycapper blog for the upcoming Tampa season. IN fact, Tampa is my favorite and most profitable track, and we will look to build on the momentum from previous seasons.

Over the last 3 years I have built a database of capping angles, trainer angles, and miscellaneous winning profiles for Tampa, and I plan to leverage this data for picking winners. In addition, I believe I have uncovered a method of identifying the key race before it becomes a key race in the eyes of the public. I have built a proprietary spreadsheet which contains the methodology and key race data.

So, I am officially launching the Tampa Free Picks Blog in which I will list out my picks for each day. We will track progress and provide updates on the bankroll as well, so there is accountability and accurate record keeping.

My goal for the meet is to turn a profit. Sounds simple, but believe me, 90% of cappers don’t break even. We will shoot for a net profit of $2,500, for the meeting that ends in May. We will start with a $1,000 bankroll, and hopefully, it will grow. I encourage all to follow along, and place wagers based on my selections. It’s easy to jump in the pool – you can open up an account at TVG.com, which in my opinion is the easiest site to deposit funds and collect.

The basic strategy will be wins bets and mix in a few trifecta’s, and one blow up the board exacta. The base wager for the trifectas and pick 3’s will be 50 cents until we turn a profit for that type of wager, and then we will move up to a buck for the baseline wager. We will make win bets based on the following scale:

 

• Best Bet – Confidence Level and Value are both deemed High – $20 Minimum
• Strong Play – Either Confidence or Value is deemed high – $15
• Play – This will be either a $5 or $10 wager depending mainly on confidence level.
• Longshot Savers – Confidence will be low here but if it hits it can save your day. The base wager will be between $2 and $5 based on confidence.

 

Exacta wagers will take the form of 3 horse exacta boxes for $2 in which there are at least 2 horses over 10-1 ML odds. The goal would be to get a return of $240 per hit, so we would need to hit 1 in every 20 exacta boxes to break even.

For full disclosure, I will not be picking a winner in every race. There are many races where I won’t have any opinion, hence, only my best plays as listed above will be given. Playing too many races is a recipe for disaster – its best to pick your spots and go at it only when confidence levels are reasonable or value exists in making the play. This method is the most profitable over time.

In closing, I know there are a lot of skeptics out there. I can’t proclaim to be the best capper overall, but I can definitely hold my own and at Tampa, as my confidence is sky high based on my record at that track over the last few years. We will have losing days. No doubt about it. That’s horse racing. It happens to the best of them. The key is to keep plugging away…capping, learning, and playing.

In an upcoming article I will publish my keys to success for the Tampa meet. This will be a summation of my secret sauce geared specifically for Tampa. For example, I can tell you how I can typically eliminate about half of the field based on my knowledge and database of angles. It is amazing how your win % goes up when you have the race narrowed down by half from the get-go.

Without further delay, let’s get started !!!

The Tampa meet just opened a few days ago and I have already blown up the board on a 30-1 winner and hit a nice pick 3 on Wednesday.

Good Luck to all….

 

Ponycapper (Whitey)