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Another bad beat for ponycapper as 4-1 shot Saturdays for Fun lost by a nose yesterday. What is encouraging is that the best bets are running 2^nd, so I may have to adjust my wagering strategy.

 

Today, in addition to my best bets and plays, I will be giving my full card selections as bonus to all cappers out there trying to make some coin.

Best Bets

Race 2

Horse #4 – Four Aria (3-1)

• This horse was ranked as an “A” on my watch list as he broke through the gate prior to the last race and he dueled on the lead on the inside on a track that was playing to outside closers.
• He takes a big drop in class – Horses form the open 12K claimer races have been firing next out.
• The race he exits was loaded with early speed and this race does not have much pace. Anytime you have a situation where a horse has the best pace and is taking a drop in class, you should run to the windows getting 2-1 or higher.

$20 Win 4

Race 4

Horse #7 – Tapitaeo (5-1)

Trainer off to a slow start but he is very capable. Jockey got horse in a bit of trouble in last and lost momentum by having to switch out. Should be flying late and will get up for the win

$20 win 7

$1 Trifecta key – 7/ 4-5-6-8/4-5-6-8 = $12

Race 10

Horse #7 – Will Run for Beer (10-1)

Horse was all geeked up first off layoff and jockey pulled and steadied him early. Look for an improved effort 2^nd off layoff as horse has talent and was competitive in Allow OPT 2x on turf 2 seasons ago. Overall, this field looks pretty weak and the back class and improved fitness may get him in winners circle if he can work out a trip.

$20 win 7

2 ex box – 7-9 = $4

$1 trifecta 7/1-3-8-9/1-3-8-9 = $12

Longshot Plays

There are a couple of horses that could blow up the board and will throw a few bucks on them as well. The explanations are covered below in the race analysis section.

Lets Go:

Race 5

#4 Proud Glory (20-1)

$5 win 4

 

Race 6

#6 Super Fantasy (15-1)

$5 Win #6

Total in play = $98

 

Bankroll Update

We stand at minus $157.

Full Card Analysis:

Race 1

1 – Hold the Presses (9-2) – Set pace on closers track. Can rebound today

7 – Blending (8-5) – Likely favorite ran decent last

6 – Fancy N Flight (20-1) – Horses often improve dramatically 2^nd over tampa and trainer is decent.

4 – LG’s Sassy – (10-1) – Exits tougher sprint races but form at tampa dreadful.

 

Race 3

Field chalked full of firsters may produce a wacky result. I will probably be going all in the pick 4 but my preferences in the race are:

10 – Let’s Wrap it up (10-1) – Racing into shape and may rally late here

8 – Pyrite Ice (15-1) Shows decent speed but folds. Got caught in duel in last. May have a chance if he can clear lead and benefits from shorter race.

I will include firsters 1–2-3-5.

Confidence level not high but the 8 and 10 may be worth win wagers at prices.

 

Race 5

Talk about a field that could produce a wacky result, this is it. I like to play in races where I think the favorite is vulnerable and I see 2 horses that will be favored that will probably flop. The 7 Bourbon Chase exists a race that was terrible on paper. The 6 has been off over a year. So, lets take a swing for the fences on some longshots.

4 – Proud Glory (20-1) – Takes blinkers off and makes slight drop in class. Showed speed before.

2 – Bowtie Man (12-1) – Drops in from mdn 25 and had some trouble in that. Like the jockey switch and will benefit from improved fitness 2^nd out.

5 – Gimme a tallboy (12-1) – Trainer cold but exists a tough race as 2^nd place won 2 in a row.

8 – Concerto’s Encore (10-1) – Showed signs of life in return race and could improve 2^nd off layoff.

Box these 4 in a 50 cent trifecta and roll the dice. Weak fields at tampa often produce unexpected results. Pick 4 players are encouraged to hit the all button.

 

Race 6

Tough field. Play defensively.

6 – Super Fantasy (15-1) – Had to wait behind horses in last and then rallied late. Has the back class to compete with this field. Trainer is iffy.

4 – Lavelle Twist (6-1) – Usually competitive on turf and has won at Tampa turf in past. Has major class edge against this group and class usually is king on the turf.

2 – Finura – Can rally for share

7-9 – Include the favs in trifectas

 

Race 7

Competitive field and good betting race.

7 – Author Bob (9-2) – Extra Distance will help. Likes tampa

11 –Quiet Rebel (6-1) – Ran good race first over tampa and can improve 2^nd out

3 – Big reward (3-1) – Likely Favorite must avoid speed duel

Two longshots to include in trifectas are the 10 Billys Band and the 12 Plant City Red – both like the track and can pick up the pieces late if pace gets hot.

 

Race 8

Have no strong opinion but like the 10 on the outside as he has class edge. Two longshots to consider are the 6 and the 5.

Race 9

No strong opinion but I will take the 8 Houston Bull as the trainer and jockey have teamed up to win 41% of time in limited sample. May win if pace is blistering up front. Likes tampa.

 

Good Luck to all…

Ponycapper