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This year’s derby field looks to be one of the best in recent memory, and Bob Baffert is holding pocket aces, with the first 2 betting choices – American Pharaoh and Dortmund. Let’s be clear, the field is one of the best in recent history – but it is very top heavy, and not the deepest. The bottom 10 horses in the field are eligible for non-winners 1 allowance. This definitely changes the approach from a handicapping and wagering perspective.

Astute followers of this blog know that I am all about value and decent longshots in the derby, and in the Triple Crown races in general. However, cappers would be wise to adjust this year and take what the race gives you. Unfortunately, what that means is it may be tough to make some cash in this year’s derby. That is the grim reality. But, I do have a plan of attack for the derby with that in mind and we will look to get some price horses to round out the trifecta.

Here is how see this year’s derby. From a pace perspective, the field is absolutely loaded with speed and will favor stalkers and closers. Horses who are one dimensional, need the lead types, are toss outs. We are looking at sub 46 half mile with plenty of pace. So, the approach for the trifecta has to be closers clunking up for 3^rd.

I will break down my analysis with the horses that can win (I only see 3 possibilities) and the horses that can hit the board – 2^nd or 3^rd.

My Top 3:

18 – American Pharaoh – 5-2 ML – This horse looks like a monster and he is my pick to not only win the race, but to go on and win the Triple Crown. The way he has been winning his races – with ease and high levels of cruising speed – has been very impressive. He should get a great trip from the outside, stalking the leaders in the 2^nd flight and should pounce at the top of stretch and go on to a 5 length victory. The only negative I can find with the horse is hasn’t been in tussle, and is not really battle tested with competitive races. If he gets in a dogfight with Dortmund will he have the heart to win? Competitive will and lack of experience at CD track are only questions in my mind, but he is the most talented runner in the race.

2 – Carpe Diem – 8-1 ML – Great Breeding, Great connections, With the right trip, has an outside chance to win. I don’t like the 2 post but hall of fame jockey should be able to work out a trip. Has right style in this race as he should get a stalking trip behind the speed.

8 – Dortmund – 3-1 – Bafferts other horse is also a monster – He is undefeated, and, he has been in some battles. I also like that he has a win over CD. The pace may compromise his chances if he decides to engage the front runners, His best tactic would be to stalk. Well-bred for the distance, by derby winner Big Brown.

 

Longshot Horses that can hit the board: (in order of preference)

16 – War Story – 50-1 – Live longshot to hit the board. Trainer is very conservative and he would not be here if he didn’t think he had a shot. Like the breeding and running style. Chance for a share and can blow up exotics.

20 – Far Right – 30-1 – When hall of famer Mike Smith picks this one over several others, I take notice. Has right running style for hot pace. Only limitation is shaky breeding for distance.

6 – Mubtaahij -20-1 – More of a hunch play for my friends from India but no one is talking about this horse and could be a under the radar European shipper. Also is a closer which helps chances for minor awards.

12 – International Star – 20-1 – The Ramsey’s best chance in years to hit the board as they usually come here for the parties with suspect horses. Running style fits well with expected clash up front. Like the breeding too.

 

Here are the scenarios and ways to play them. I will be playing first 2 scenarios as these are most probable outcomes in my mind. Note, the use of the trifecta and lack of win bets. All wagers are based on $1 dollar bets. But before I get to that, here is my predicted official order of finish:

1-18

2- 2

3- 8

4- 16

5- 20

Even numbers rule the day !!!!

Scenario 1 – Pharaoh wins comfortably (by 5) and stalkers hold for 2^nd with potential closer for 3^rd.

Most likely scenario.

Tri Key – 18 / 2-8/ 2-8-16-20-6-12 = 10

I will be punching above wager multiple times

Tri Key – 18 / 2-8-16-20 = 12

Will also punch above multiple times

Tri Key – 18 / 2-8-16/ 2-8-16-6-20-12 = 15

 

Scenario 2 – Pharaoh takes lead mid turn and all the stalkers are all in trying to catch him. Pharaoh wins by 12 the chasers will tire mid-stretch, and the dead closers will clunk up for the minors. This scenario happens a lot in racing when a favorite dominates and you get wacky results underneath. Often the jockeys on the other contenders won’t persevere on their mounts being hopelessly beaten, and they gear the horse down to save something for the next race.

Tri Key – 18 / 16-20-6-12 = 12

 

Scenario 3 – Pharaoh is in a dog fight and doesn’t have the will to win since he has never competed when it counts.

Tri Key – 2-8/ 18 / 2-8-16-20-6-12 = 10

 

Scenario 4 – Complete Chaos – Pharaoh either hates the track or gets cooked in a duel. This would be the 2005 derby version where everything fell apart and a donkey went on to victory with the closers dominating.

Ex box – 16-20-6-12 = 12

 

Couple notes:

The 7 and 11 are scratched.

Hunch players should play Itsaknockout due to the big fight today.

Aggressive gamblers can bet on there being a Triple Crown winner this year. If there are odds on a horse to win TC, go with Pharaoh.

 

As always, best of luck !!

Whitey