Capper's Corner

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On paper, this year’s Preakness looks pretty formful as American Pharoah scared away a lot of the local competition and we are left with a field of 8.

Pharoah is 4 to 5 on the M/L and will probably be bet down lower than that come post time. While most handicappers are concerned with the post, I am more worried about whether the Derby took something out of him as he was whipped pretty much the whole stretch – enough so that it has stirred up some controversy with the animal rights people. He is clearly the best horse but not bettable at the price, though I will be pulling for him.

The Wise guy horse is Firing line. Everyone loves him and I would bet he goes off as a solid choice of 5-2 or 3-1. Post is good for him as he can see how race unfolds from outside. He too was in a battle in the derby so a regression would not surprise me.

Dortmund has worst the post as the other confirmed speed horse Mr Z will be gunning for the lead just to outside. The latter has a send jockey and he will be pressing Dortmund if not in the lead himself. Ran decent 3^rd in derby and there is no reason he can’t hit the board at a price that will be slightly higher than his 7-2 ML (5-1 maybe).

My longshot play and the horse I am tepidly picking on top is Divining Rod. This horse is fresh having skipped the Derby and won impressively in Lexington, though the competition is not what he will face today. Two starts back he ran against a severe speed bias at Tampa so that race is a toss. The key for him will be the pace. If he can get a nice stalking position behind the front runners, and the pace is either fast or highly contested with 2 or more horses on lead, then his chances of springing a big upset would improve. There is some speed signed on with MR Z so I would say my picks chances are dependent on z man pressing and ensuring an honest pace (unlike the cake walk in the derby which compromised trifecta chances). He is 12 M/L and we should get more than that come post time, perhaps 15-1.

Two horses who could manage 4^th – Mr Z iif pace is slow or Danzig Moon (4) who could clunk up for a share if pace is hot. Also, there is a slight chance of storms today and if its wet these 2 horses could move up in the slop, maybe even 2^nd, as they both have very good off track pedigrees.

My predicted order of finish:

1 – American Pharoah

7 – Divining Rod

2 – Dortmund

8 – Firing Line

Wagering Strategies

Tread lightly. The Preakness is usually formful, so lets save some Ammo for the Belmont, where there could be horses waiting in the weeds to spring an upset.

$15 Win – 7

$5 Ex Box 1-7 = 10

$2 Ex Box 2-7 = 4

$2 Tri Box 1-2-7 = 12

$1 Tri Key 2 wth 1-7-8 = 6

$1 Tri Key 7 with 1 with All = 6

$2 Super

1 with 7 with 2-8 with 3-4 = 8

 

Good Luck !