Capper's Corner

This year’s breeders cup offers plenty of betting value with tons of competitive races on tap, and capped off by a Breeders cup classic which will captivate racing fans, giving them one last look at Pharoah before he heads off to the breeding shed.

I will give you my top value plays starting with my highest confidence pick in the classic. I will be treading lightly in the Turf races due to the soft conditions expected, highly competitive fields, and wildcard Euro shippers.
Note, value plays mean the horse has a better chance to win than their morning line suggests

Breeders Cup Classic
With the scratch of beholder, it looks like on paper that American Pharoah will be out on the lead by himself which could be a dangerous combination of talent and pace advantage. But, my pick to take this years classic is Tonalist. One of the best angles in horse racing is a horse who has earned significantly higher best beyers figures – on multiple occasions – over his/her competition. Last 4 e beyers for Tonlist, 123, 123, 122, 115, and 124. 3 of which were earned in grade 1 company. Compare that to Pharoahs last 5 – 110, 112, 112, 111, 111. Only other horse with similar top beyers is Honor code. Biggest question with Tonalist is his ability to ship outside of New York. If he gets the stalking trip, he wins in a stretch duel over AP, with a bomb grabbing 3rd.

My predicted order of finish:
1 – Tonalist
4 – American Pharoah
6 – Effinex
9 – Honor Code

My Value Plays – Races ranked in order of confidence and value:

Filly Sprint
3 – Taris – Likes KEE. Toss last. Can rate off hot pace and win
8 – Stonetastic – Speed of speed can be dangerous
2 – Dame Dorothy – Pletcher heating up. Had trouble in last and is classiest in field

Sprint
10 – Salutos Amigos
13 – Private Zone
3 – Stallwalkin Dude
6 – Ivan F

Race 9 – Juvenile
9 – Exagerator
13 – Nyquist
8 Tale of Svall
10 Swipe

Turf Races
Race 4 – Sprint
7 – Green Mask
11 – Marchman
3 – Undrafted
14 mongolin Saturday

Race 6 FM Turf
11 – Stephanies Kitten
2 – Senterio Italia
12 – Secret Gesture

Race 8 – Mile
1 – Grand Arch
9 – Esoterique
7 – Tepin