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Rundown:
Race Overview
Favorite Breakdown
Win Contenders
Spoilers-Longshots
Exotic Inclusions
Pilot to Bombardier
Likely Scenarios
Betting Strategy
Pick Summary

Race Overview
This year’s run for the roses looks like a bettors dream with a plethora of dead money in the pools on hopeless longshots and a favorite with questionable distance pedigree.

There is not much pace in the race with only a few speed horses signed on, which should favor stalkers and close to lead types. Ironically, this field includes a ton of closers who may be pace compromised, and will not get the trips that they received in their latest prep race.
I am looking for half mile splits of around 47 with the outside runner, Danzig Candy setting the pace followed by a tandem of Outwork and the race favorite Nyquist.

I am looking for the winner to be sitting in the next 2 packs of stalkers and mid pack types, with the potential for a deep closer to clunk up for 3rd.

Readers of this blog know I do my best work in the Belmont but let’s try and nail a derby winner. Obviously, the last 3 Derby’s have been won by the race favorite and that formula doesn’t match with my value betting strategy.
Of course, I will throw out the obvious disclaimer that in a full field of 20 horses, often luck decides the outcome and benefits the horse that works out the best trip, so there is some element of the fluke-factor. Take that into consideration and plan wagers accordingly.

Favorite Breakdown
Nyquist is the 3-1 ML favorite and some would say, deservingly so, as the horse is undefeated and hasn’t done anything wrong in winning all 7 of his starts. At this stage, I kind of have mixed feelings on this one and will probably use defensively underneath. On the one hand, he reminds me (in some ways) of Smarty Jones coming into the Derby, undefeated and pedigree challenged for the distance. Obviously, Smarty had immense talent and a huge heart and outran his pedigree that day. Can Nyquist do the same? Perhaps. He has tactical speed and some would say a comparable will to win. There is no quit in this horse. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been tested at today’s distance and there is a big difference with the extra furlong. He is sired by the hot Uncle Mo, but comes mainly from a sprint family on the dam side.

Win Contenders
My main contenders to take down the race are Mohaymen and Destin.

Mohaymen is 10-1 ML but the expected off odds are between 5 and 7 to 1. The track odds maker botched the ML. Most likely he will be co-2nd choice with exaggerator.

One of the lessons I learned early in life at the track is that sometimes you just have to draw a line through a race and pretend it doesn’t show up in the PP’s. That’s the approach I am taking here. Reports are he didn’t like the gooey off track at gulfstream and the heat and humidity added to the Florida Derby disaster. He has tactical speed and should be sitting right off the leaders and get first-jump turning for home. Mohaymen was an expensive purchase costing over 2 million dollars and is a son of Tapit, and is said to be training well at CD. While he beat some easy competition down in Florida and NY you have to like the way he was winning races, and could have easily run up better beyer numbers if asked to run late. Mohaymen gets my top pick, mainly because I think he has about 1 in 3 chance of winning, and we will be getting around double the mutual odds. That’s the recipe for winning at the track. If he is higher than 8-1, I will be doubling the bet.

Destin is 15-1 ML and I suspect off odds around 13 to 15 to 1.

Pletcher-trained horse is not getting much buzz at CD like his stablemate, and the 8 week layoff looks to be a red flag – for most cappers. These dopes forget Pletcher took 2 Breeders’ cup races last year with horses coming off 8 to 10 week layoffs. Horse has done little wrong and has impressive wins at Tampa, setting a new stakes and track record for the distance. Again the tactical speed is a bonus and may get a trip similar to the top pick. Derby Pedigree is very good, a son of Giant’s Causeway who is one of NA racing’s most potent stamina influences. Dam has produced stayers and classic distance runners. Only hesitation may be Pletcher is gearing this one for the Belmont, so I will definitely be re-loading in the Belmont on this one regardless of his derby finish. He pulled the same stunt with Stay Thirsty a few years back. (I have a knack of being one race early). I can only hope he is fully cranked and gets a clean break to secure a stalking style trip. If so, it’s a matter if he is good enough – Ponycapper thinks this runner has talent.

Spoilers & Longshots
Brody’s Cause – 12-1 ML. Post was not ideal draw way out on outside and Beyer’s look weak on paper, but I think he is sitting on a big race, and the extra distance will be right up his alley. Has trained well, but will need a fast pace to have a chance to win – but even an honest pace can get him in the exotics.

Mo Tom – 20-1 ML. Tough luck horse and bad rides have cost him in last few prep races. Love the training reports over the track and with some better luck, I can see him flying late with an upset chance. Owned by the Saints owner, Who Dat nation (along with chief douche bag Sean Payton) will be drinking all night if he finds the winner circle.

Exotic Inclusions
A whole host of horses could finish 3rd or 4th so let’s identify a few that could be in the mix underneath.

Gun Runner – 10-1 ML. Will probably be 3rd or 4th choice and is my main contender to fear in the race (that I won’t have to win). Great pedigree and has nice pace figs. The competition was light in prep races, but again, has tactical speed and his good pedigree could put him in the mix.

Mor Spirit – 12-1 ML. Baffert trainee could get dream trip perched from outside. Leave out of exotics at own risk.

Shagaf – 20-1 ML. Lightly raced horse is short on experience which I tend to value in Derby, but he could be bounce-back candidate, off a dull slop performance in Wood. In my view, gets rider upgrade, and post is decent.

Bombs Away
My bomb horse is Oscar Nominated at 50-1 ML. Maybe worth a $3 win wager just to recoup losses if it hits. Not ruling out that he could work his way into the tri or super and blow up the prices. Turf pedigree all around but CD has been kind to horses with good turf pedigree (Animal Kingdom). Upshot is based on owners and silent partners confidence to supplement him into race for 200K, he will love the distance, and gets a red hot jock to come aboard. Bottom line – I have seen worse longshots on paper and let’s face it – this is not the strongest Derby field, so a fresh face has every right to be a pilot to bombardier flyer in this year’s derby.

Likely Scenarios
3 main scenarios come to mind: 1) Nyquist wins like a good thing. 2) Moderate pace which favors stalkers, and maybe a closer to round out tri. 3) Derby Chaos. Hot pace. Closers dominate.
I am hoping for scenario 2 and will form betting strategy around it.

Betting Strategy
Win Bets on Mohaymen and Destin.
Some small exactas with these 2, and spoilers Mo Tom and Brody’s Cause mixed in.
I’m thinking that the 3rd spot in tri is wide open to a myriad of horses, so I want to have as much coverage in that slot as possible, so I will pyramid the $1 tri key with more horses in 3rd slot

Something like:
14 with 9-19 with 9-19-4-5-7-13-16-17 = $12

Or instead of 1-2-6 combo do a 1-3-5 combo with Destin (9) up top

9 with 14-4-19 with 14-4-19-5-13 = $12

Of course, I will do a few supers, with more coverage in 4th slot.

Ponycapper’s Predicted order of finish:
1. 14 – Mohaymen
2. 9 – Destin
3. 19 – Brody’s Cause
4. 4 – Mo Tom
5. 13 – Nyquist

Good luck to all cappers !!!