Capper's Corner

This year’s running of the Preakness stakes looks like a mudfest, with rain predicted to fall all morning and into early afternoon.

The below analysis is based on a wet track – overall assumption is that there will be a 90% chance of the track listed as sloppy. If it’s dry save your money.

One caveat for the Preakness stakes – usually it’s a chalk fest. So, overall recommendation is hold off on sending in your mortgage money and tread lightly. Save funds for the Belmont, this is where the big scores often occur.

There is probably about a 70% chance Nyquist will run away with the race but nothing is guaranteed. I would never advise backing a 3 to 5 shot. Probably the best way to make some cash, assuming you like him, is put him in 2nd in trifectas and supers and hope to beat him.

My analysis below is based on that premise.

The two biggest changes from the derby are: the pace scenario will be vastly different as there are 4 or 5 speed horses signed on, and obviously the wet track (though the derby had some moisture)

Both of these may impact Nyquist as follows.
There is no way Nyquist will be on the lead – he will have to go to stalking mode, which he did in the derby and got the perfect trip. The wildcard comes in from the standpoint of how he is going to like mud kicked in his face. In the one off-track he raced on in the Florida derby he was on the lead and didn’t have mud kick back to contend with…so it raises some concern. My guess is jockey will tilt him to the outside of horses entering first turn so he avoids the kick back, but this may cost him some ground.

The horse that I think gets the best trip and is my top pick is Exaggerator (3-1). He loves the slop as evidenced by his big win in the SA derby. He was a hard charging 2nd in the derby and overcame some traffic problems. He should get a dream run as the early pace will set up his late kick. He would be best served by being mid pack as Pimlico has favored speed horses since meet opened.

The other horse I will use is Cherry Wine. He will have the same 2 things working in his favor, a hot pace and sloppy track. In his only slop performance he won by 9. Well rested off blue grass effort he can easily come in 2nd, and is my price play for Tri’s.

My flier horse – pilot to bombardier – is Loaban. He is 30-1 M/L. He has never raced on an off track but his mother’s Sire is Speightstown, who was a huge mudder and his offspring typically run well in the slop. He takes blinks off which tells me he may change tactics and sit off the pace. His bluegrass race was much better than it appears as he was racing against the closers bias that day.

One other horse for the exotics is Fellowship (30-1). He always seem to run 3rd or 4th so you may want to consider including underneath.

Official Predicted Order of Finish:
5 – Exaggerator
3 – Nyquist
1 – Cherry Wine
10 – Fellowship
8 – Laoban

Wagering preference:
Small win bet Cherry Wine
Tri and super keys with Exaggerator up top (again if Nyqusit wins tri won’t pay anything – you have to try and beat him)
$1 Tri key – 5 with 1-3-8-10 = $12
$1 Super Key – 5 with 1-3-8-10 = $24
$20 trifecta Straight – 5 with 3 with 1
$5 trifecta straight – 5 with 1 with 3

Good Luck
Ponycapper