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Belmont Story Lines:

1. Morning Line Debacle
Are you kidding me? Who is the dope that set these morning line’s for this year’s Belmont? Exaggerator’s ML at 9/5 is one of the worst assignments of a line for a favorite in modern history. 9/5 should be even money or 6 to 5 at post time. Suddenbreakingnews at 10-1 is also a joke. He will be 5-1 2nd choice easily at post time. This guy is absolutely clueless.

2. Weakest Field in Recent Belmont History
All of the trash that signed up for this year’s Belmont is a by-product of owners reaching for a large payout for a 3rd place finish. Who can blame them for taking a shot with the quality of this field. After the favorite, you are looking at half the field of late closing donkeys who are vastly overrated.

3. How Will the Closers Fare?
Most novice cappers think the Belmont favors closers and deep closers because of the extra distance. This is a fallacy. Longer distance = Slower Pace = Advantage front runners, stalkers and grinders. Don’t get suckered into that trap. I’m against most of the closers this year. The slower pace means they will have to transform into a stalker because by default they will be 10-15 lengths closer to pace (half mile 2-3 seconds slower than derby). It’s either they try and transform or they lay back and make one run. Typically the one run types crash and burn. Their best chance is to convert to stalker but that is not easily accomplished. Plus, the lack of early pace in the belmont does not work in their favor.

4. The Weather
Astute readers of this blog know how I feel about the track condition severely impacting the results of a race. With a 20-30% chance of storms in NY, it’s smart to have a contingency wager for an off track.

Analysis and Picks

2 – Destin – 6-1 – My top pick. I liked him going to the Derby and Pletcher clearly didn’t have him fully cranked after 8 week layoff. Pletcher has a decent track record of horses skipping the Preakness after a Derby flop and having them ready at a price in the Belmont (Stay Thirsty and Commissioner come to mind). Destin didn’t break alertly and got caught in mid pack in what was a speed favoring CD track on derby day. He made a nice middle move to reach contention but was clearly a short horse when the real running started. Fun fact. Destin has the highest speed figure in the field (his 110 beats Exaggerator’s 108). He ran that in the Sam F Davis at Tampa. Pedigree is decent for the distance but the push over the edge to “top Pick” comes based on his running style. He should get a dream trip stalking just off leaders and get first run turning from home. Oh, and here is the best part – We will be getting anywhere from 8 to 10 to 1 on this guy. Again, the ML was a complete disaster.

11 – Exaggerator 9-5 – deserving favorite will be tough to beat on his A Game. I will be using him in all of my exotics and hoping to beat him up top. Will be closer to 6/5 come post and if it rains I will be putting this guy on top of all of my superfectas.

10 – Lani – 20-1 – The breeding on this guy caught my eye prior to derby and made a mental note to consider him in the Belmont, assuming he was still around. After consideration….I’m using him. The derby was a throw out. He hated the track and was 8 wide. His Preakness – in reviewing the replay – was quite impressive, more than I first thought. He was so far back turning for home and made a great run to be a fast closing 5th. Reports from track insiders say this horse has been training well and very aggressively, doing 3 mile gallops daily so he should be fit and ready. If he gets out of the gate decent he will no doubt be closer to the pace – perhaps a mid-packer – and can turn into a Belmont grinder similar to how he won the UAE derby. I also like the fact that this horse has been training at Belmont since the derby which leads me to believe they have pointing this horse for the Belmont. Best bred horse in the field for the distance only helps.

One’s to Consider:

Stradivari – 5-1
At the time of this writing, I haven’t decided if I will be using Stradivari. I like him but I don’t like the price and prefer the other Pletcher runner to him. He will be first to engage front running Gettysburg and to me he is a wildcard – can win or be last.

Brody’s Cause – 20-1
Could definitely seeing him in the trifecta or super on his best day. Has been inconsistent but is capable of running a big one. Liked him in Derby so will probably feel obligated to use underneath due to my long history of being “one race early” on my Derby calls, and he will be a price. Post hurts somewhat.

Suddenbreaking news – 10-1
Against him for most part but do like rider upgrade. Will be using defensively underneath as a clunker – perhaps running 3rd or 4th. Will be over bet for my liking and will go off at 5 or 6 to 1.
Governor Malibu – 12-1
If you like him, I wouldn’t talk you off him. Fresh face in a weak crop without Nyquist. Has improved vastly with blinkers added. Rode connections – trainer and jockey – to huge score with Tonalist a few years ago.

Pilot to Bombardier
How about Gettysburg? He will be 50-1 but will also be the lone speed in the race. Most think he is entered as a rabbit and there is probably some truth to that. But, earlier in the year there was some buzz around this horse and my feeling is he is better than he looks on paper. He set ridiculous fractions in Ark derby and has a local prep over the Belmont course. Well-bred for distance by Pioneer of the Nile and if Stradivari lets him run loose on lead, and the track has been generally speed favoring, I can see him hanging around for a share of the exotics. Maybe 3rd?

Predicted Order of Finish:
2 – Destin
11 – Exaggerator
10 – Lani
12 – Brody’s Cause
4 – Suddenbreakingnews

Wet Track Contingency:
Superfecta with Exaggerator up top over these 4 horse underneath:

Destin
Lani
Cherry Wine
Trojan Nation

Good Luck