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Astute followers of this blog know last year’s Preakness was a huge windfall for Ponycapper, so the question becomes — was it a one year fluke?

Time will tell…

What I do know is the Derby was a disaster for me with only Battle of Midway showing up in the slop. The forecast looks dry for Saturday so we should get a fair shake as the Derby conditions and track bias compromised many of the runners.

The Preakness offers some betting value if you think Always Dreaming is vulnerable. The 4-5 Favorite may very well win the race but at this price, wager at your own risk because he will be overbet and is a classic underlay, coming off a big Debry win. He had a dream trip in the Derby and I still question what this horse will do when he finally gets pressure. Obviously the horse has talent and is the one to beat and its best to include in your exotic bets underneath.

The strategy as always in the Preakness is to tread lightly because it is usually pretty chalky, and play the exotics (SUPERS and TRIS) , and most of all SAVE MONEY FOR THE BELMONT – the best betting race in the sport !!

My preakness bold prediction – A PHOTO FINISH – perhaps 3 horses on the wire all separated by a half length at most.

Here are my main contenders to turn the Preakness into a nightmare for always dreaming….

5 – Classic Empire
ML Odds – 3-1
Projected off odds 5-2

Got knocked off his game at the start in the Derby and really never recovered though he finished an admiral 4th. Most likely will be overbet off the severely troubled trip and may not offer value in the win slot. Look for him to lay closer to the pace and take an advantage of a mid-race duel that may develop between the 10 and 4 horse. You have to love his stalking style and could get the perfect trip today. At 3-1, I will be using as a key horse up top slot in tris and supers and hope to connect underneath

6 – Gunnevera
ML odds – 15-1
Projected off odds – 12-1

If you liked him in the derby don’t give up on him. He hated the slop and was caught wide when the rail was way better. He also had trouble in the early stages in the derby. If you are concerned about the jockey jumping off for another mount, look at it as an act of loyalty to the trainer who basically is his meal ticket on the NY circuit. The new jockey is no slouch in hall of famer Mike Smith. The issue for this horse has to be the pace set up. Backers can only hope the jockey gets him into a mid pack position instead of lagging in the back. Has the talent – it’s just a matter of getting help up front with an honest pace. The value meter is sky high here as his last 2 running lines have legitimate excuses which means we will get value today and merits a win bet. My main Preakness spoiler at a price.

10 – Conquest Mo Money
ML Odds – 15-1
Projected off odds – 12-1

I went back and watched the ARK Derby and was very impressed by the grit and the heart this horse showed as he dueled with a very good Plethcher horse from the 3/8s to the sixteenth pole and was nipped at the wire by the 2nd choice in this race – Classic Empire. Don’t be surprised if this horse shows heart again and gets brave on the lead. His test will be what happens when the race FAV applies the pressure on him? I think he battles on and actually fights hard until deep stretch, unlike State of Honor in the Derby who folded like a rented beach chair. He is a decent pick for the trifecta as he is fresh and has a pace advantage in a field that is lacking speed. I wouldn’t talk anyone out of win wager as there is a scenario where he is left alone on the lead and doesn’t stop running.

2 – Cloud Computing
ML Odds – 12-1
Projected off odds – 9 -1

Could quickly turn into the wise guy horse as he seems to be getting some buzz. He is very lightly raced and skipped the Derby for this spot. There are a few things to like here as he was compromised by a speed favoring track in the Wood and he broke slow. I did like his mid race move that day and he finished way ahead of the 4th place finisher. The Gotham was also respectable for his 2nd career start. He is fresh but most of all, he has tactical speed and an inside post so he may get the best trip of all…saving ground on the rail just off the pace and looking to pounce. He is definitely a wildcard with potential to hit the board at a decent price.

Race Set up
The key to the race as always is the projected pace. With Royal Mo scratched, there are only 2 horses that will be out in front – Conquest Mo Money and Always Dreaming. Two stalkers will be Cloud Computing and Classic Empire.
Two scenarios are most likely: 1 Always Dreaming in a repeat trip which won’t be good for me. Or 2: Some kind of fight with Conquest and the favorite with a stalker like Classic empire or Cloud computing benefiting, or a horse like Gunnevera coming from well behind to scoop the pot. Obviously, will be hoping for some form of scenario 2.

Wagering Strategy

Small win wager on a long shot – Gunnevera
Hammer the trifecta and super with a keyed horse up top. In a race where a heavy FAV will hit the board you are better off not boxing and just key or bet it straight with a larger dollar denomination.

A couple of SUPERFECTA options:
$1 SUPER 5 with 2-4-6-10 = $24
$1 SUPER 5 with 6 with 4-2-10 with all = $21
$5 SUPER 4 with 6 with 5-2-10 = $30

Predicted Order of Finish
5 – Classic Empire
6 – Gunnevera
4 – Always Dreaming
10 – Conquest Mo Money
2 – Cloud Computing

Good Luck!