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Heading into the 2017 Belmont, story lines are blurred as both the Derby and Preakness winners are skipping the Belmont Stakes, leaving a field of 12 signed on to test their meddle in the grueling mile and a half race over Big Sandy – the local reference to historic Belmont Park.

Ponycapper followers know that this race is circled on the calendar as the marquee handicapping jewel for the blog author, and we will look to make amends for the brutal beat in last years rendition.

The race storylines

Non Starter
Classic Empire – the presumptive race favorite – was a late non entry, making this running a wide open affair. I was actually disappointed to hear the news as I was playing against this one based on the rugged schedule, as this would have been his 4th race in 8 weeks, which is a recipe for disaster. In addition, the horse was not really bred for the Belmont distance, and I was counting on the favorite to flop. In any event, we will press on, take it in stride, and deal with the odds on the remaining runners.

Japan Invader
The Japan invader Epicharis is a fresh face in the mix, and is receiving a lot of buzz. He has raced 5 times and won 4, losing his last by a nose. He is installed as the 2nd choice, but reports of lameness in his leg leave some doubt as to whether he will make the starting gate. They are treating the leg with medication and the trainer thinks he may go, but obviously this is not a good development.

Morning Line Assessment
One thing is certain – THIS IS A WIDE OPEN BETTING RACE with the likely favorite going off at around 4-1. Overall, the track handicapper did a decent job on the ML odds, with the only exceptions being the Number 1 horse – Twisted Tom. NY betters love Chad Brown and the same trainer and jockey just took down the Preakness so your likely price….perhaps 10 or 12-1. The other line that looks off is the ML on Senior Investment – You are not getting 12-1 on this horse – 8 to 1 is more likely. And the other consideration is the late breaking news on the 11 Epicharis – His odds will be sure to go up on the news that his leg is not 100%.

Belmont Trends
Horses that have run in the Derby and skip the Preakness have been running well in the Belmont over the last 10 years. Favorites have been 3 for the last 19 in the Belmont. Dead closers typically don’t fare well, which is contradictory to how most think in that the longer distance will help them. But, actually, the slower pace hurts their running style in the Belmont. Horses sired by Tapit have done well in recent years – Creator and Tonalist won, Destin and Frosted came in 2nd. Todd Pletcher has won 2 Belmont’s but actually had some tough luck as well, most notably, Destin was nosed out last year, when he looked like a winner 100 yards out.

Here is Ponycapper’s analysis of the field:
1 – Twisted Tom – 20-1 – Connections upset Preakness field so likely 20-1 turns into 12-1 if you like him. He is taking a big step up in class, but in a field lacking solid quality, the connections decided to put up the 75K supplemental fee to take a crack at an upset. Has low dosage and is one of the ones who should have no problem with the distance. Races he exits were small and weak, and on form alone I will be tossing for the win spot. Pedigree could carry him to a superfecta 4th place finish.

2 – Tapwrit – 6-1 – Surprisingly no one is really talking about him and may be flying under the radar. His 6th place finish in the Derby was better than it looked as he all kinds of issues with traffic and bumping. Trainer has done well with horses skipping the Preakness and pointing at Belmont, so one must respect this one, even if the form looks off. Contrary to what most think about his breeding on Dam side, he has tons of stamina, with distance influencers such as Hawkster and Seattle Slew buried in there. And of course, his Sire Tapit is on fire – he produced two Belmont winners in the last 3 years. Main Contender.

3 – Gormley – 8-1 – Another Derby horse who comes in fresh for the Belmont. His Santa Anita derby didn’t impress me much and was playing against in Derby. Still, he does have a few things going for him, namely a good pedigree for the distance and the very strong pace numbers in all of his races. Very much has the look of a grinder and has versatility to be on or near the lead. Was wide in the Derby against the rail bias and he seems to alternate running big in races. Mixed feelings on this one and will probably use defensively underneath.

4 – J Boys Echo – 15-1 – Getting sense he may be wise guy horse as everyone is pointing to his win over cloud computing in the Gotham. And, he did have trouble in the Derby. To me, this horse is a complete wildcard, who is capable of running a huge race, but for the most part seems a cut below the field. May use defensively underneath in event he runs a big one.

5 – Hollywood Handsome – 30- 1 – Trainer knows how to get a bomb in the exacta in triple crown races, however this one may be a stretch, as he steps way up in class and distance may be an issue.

6 – Lookin at Lee – 5-1 – This will be his 4th race in 8 weeks and closing style doesn’t really suit a typical Belmont winner. Took advantage of fast pace to close well in Preakness. His Under-layed odds today are also not attractive for me. He can clunk up for 3rd or 4th at best.

7 – Irish War Cry – 7-2 – Flopped in the Derby and the race looks to be too bad to believe. He does have an advantage of tactical speed and can stalk as well. The lack of early pace in the race will definitely help his chances. Key for him is letting the 9 horse go to the front. If the 9 is pressing him from the outside it will lead to his demise. Jockey in-game race decision will be key for him. He would also benefit from an Epicharis defection. (check if the 11 scratches). Sired by Curlin, has the stamina on top side and he produced 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice.

8 – Senior Investment – 12-1 – Was fast closing horse in the Preakness and seems to be improving. Has same running style as Lookin at Lee, but I am against the deep closers in the Belmont, though his odds offer a bit more value than the 6 horse.

9 – Meantime – 15-1- Should be the pace setter in the race and is very lightly raced. If the race was a mile and an eighth I would probably be playing as he could be lone speed, setting easy fractions. The issue with this guy is the pedigree, as he likely will fold in the stretch based on the likely distance limitations. He would move up on a wet track so if a late day storm rolls through, it may be wise to throw him in underneath. Talented horse will improve as the year progresses. Tabbing for later.

10 – Multiplier – 15-1 – Everyone is talking about his troubled trip in the Preakness but I watched the replay several times and didn’t see much. Adds blinkers for the Belmont, but has pedigree issues as well. Horse he beat in the Illinois Derby came back to flop on the Preakness undercard so one has to question that big effort.

11 – Epicharis – 4-1 – As mentioned, his odds will float up due to the foot issue. Japan will be sending in $40 million in a separate betting pool so interest will be high oversees. One thing to like on this one is the strong distance pedigree. Horse has not beaten much overseas so its tough to gauge overall talent level. That and the foot issue make him a complete Belmont wildcard.

12 – Patch – 12-1 – The one eyed horse gets the outside post again so he won’t be able to see his competitors to his inside. Had hidden trouble in the Derby and was wide against bias. Love the breeding here with stamina on both sides and is trained by aforementioned Pletcher. Sleeper to hit the board and if things break his way, pull the upset.

Picks:
2 Horse – My top pick is Tapwrit. I love the breeding and the trainer does well in the Belmont (Stay Thirsty, Commissioner, Palice Malice, Destin). I liked him going into the Derby and he had plenty of excuses that day, Should get nice trip saving ground from inside on the wide sweeping turns. Son of Tapit and all that stamina on Dam side indicate this one should appreciate the added distance.

7 Horse – My 2nd choice is Irish War Cry, the likely race favorite come post time. On his best day, horse is monster – but you can make a case as to which horse shows up today? The Derby flop was too bad for me to believe and the 5 weeks off should be beneficial. Jockey needs to let him stalk instead of getting pressed. Turning for home, he should he taking the lead but the question is – can he hold on? Could be this years Destin as he may get tired in final stages. Must use in exotics.

12 Horse – For 3rd, I will go with Patch. Horse was way overbet in the Derby taking a lot of sentimental money, so maybe the value goes down today as well. Going into the Derby I did say that the Derby was nothing more of a prep for this guy. And, he should move forward with a dry track and extra distance. Overall, he has a nice Belmont profile. Derby runner skipping the Preakness, lightly raced, and breeding to love the distance. Mid pack running style will be an advantage as well and gets a major jockey upgrade. There is value in a saver win bet as his odds should be north of 10-1, and honestly, the trainer knows how to get a horse ready for the Belmont.

3 Horse – For 4th, I don’t really have a strong opinion but will lean towards Gormley based on the analysis points mentioned. But again, it’s a wide open race and realistically you can make a case for half the field to possibly run 4th. Others to consider for this slot, J Boys Echo, Twisted Tom, and of course the two strong closers, Lookin at Lee and Senior Investment, could easily clunk up to round out the superfecta.

Win – Tapwrit
Saver win – Patch
Exacta Box – 2-7-12
Exacta Box – 2-3-12

Good Luck