Capper's Corner

Jump to Comments

Welcome to the 2018 Derby rundown.

Here, Whitey breaks down this year’s Derby with analysis, commentary and picks.

Post time for the race is around 6:50 pm.

The weather for this year’s running looks okay, but there is a chance a system may not clear out in time for the race, so spotty showers could linger throughout the day.

Just to re-cap my Derby approach (for blog newcomers) — I typically focus on horses who have a decent chance of running big races at overlaid odds, or outrunning their projected off odds to hit the board. To me, over the long term, this is the only way to consistently make money on derby day.

Below is the Ponycapper 2018 Derby rundown:
• Field Overview
• Pace & Race Set up
• Prep Results
• Breeding
• Foundation and Intangibles
• Whitey’s Top 3
• Superfecta horses
• MOAB
• Rest of Field analysis/commentary
• Also Rans
• Race Lens – How the Race may unfold
• Early Belmont Pick
• Wagering Strategy

Field Overview
The 2018 rendition of the Kentucky Derby looks to have a fair amount of quality, from the top certainly, but also the middle horses seem to have decent form and are not without a chance. There is probably about 5-7 horses who realistically have no chance.

Todd Pletcher is fully loaded this year, and all 4 of his horses have a good chance to win. Overall, there are a lot of directions to go, but it looks to me that after Justify, there will be a slot of 4 or 5 horses going off in the 5 to 8-1 grouping, and they would be: Bolt D’Oro, Mendelssohn, Audible, and Good Magic. Magnum Moon the 6-1 3rd choice on ML will likely go off at 10-1.

What does Whitey think of the ML odds? Some big misses. Good Magic 12-1? Come on. A novice handicapper could have assigned the correct ML of 6 or 8-1. Hofburg was also a miss, and so was Vino Rosso. Bold D’Oro should have been 6-1.

Lets quickly re-cap the factors that matter in the derby:
• Pace and Race Set up
• Form and prep results
• Quality of the prep races
• Breeding and ability to get the distance
• Foundation and Intangibles

Pace & Race Set up
The pace situation looks solid this year with at least 3 or 4 confirmed front runners. Promises Fulfilled holds the key to the race as early pace pressure on Justify could compromise the race favorite’s chances.

Overall, some of these runners may be “need the lead” types and it may be interesting to see how things shake out early in the race.
My inclination is that the winner will come from a stalking or mid-pack position. It feels like it would take something special for a front runner to win this year with the early heat projected from promises fulfilled and possibly a few others.
Note, it has been almost 5 years since a true closer won the race (ORB) , but I do think the race sets up nicely for closers to run well, likely hitting the board while the front runners collapse in the stretch.

Form and Prep race results
Everyone will be talking about the following derby prep standouts:
• Justify – undefeated but untested
• Mendelssohn’s huge figure in Dubai and track record performance
• Magnum Moon is also undefeated but has taken an easier route to the derby
• Good Magic has plenty of credibility as the 2yo champion and winner of the breeders cup
• Audible’s Florida campaign was pretty special.

Quality of the Prep races
To me, it looks as if the main players avoided each other, en route to trying to pick up the required derby points. While that is a great strategy, I felt it actually hurt some of the competitors, especially the runners without much racing experience.

The strongest races/strongest horses were in Florida and California. The weakest in Arkansas. NY had weak to middle of the road, and the Blue Grass in Kentucky was marginal.

Breeding and Distance
We will be discussing in the field analysis section but just a general comment for the novice derby bettor. There is a huge difference between the prep races in both distance and field size and the derby. The extra eighth of a mile is absolutely huge because of the taxing nature of the race – more competitors in the race (typically 20 vs. 7 to 10 in the prep races) means that more energy is being expended, as well as the extra traffic issues.

My typical strategy here is to identify “contenders” that have a fair shot at moving up based on the extra distance, while not emphasizing too much for the horses that are off form or not labeled a contender.
Whitey has researched every contender’s pedigree and provides insight below. Main point to understand is to realize that the derby is a completely different environment than the prep race and having a distance pedigree can often be a difference maker – and contender separator – on derby day.

Foundation
We have a few horses trying to break the Apollo curse this year – as we know – no horse has won the derby without racing at 2, since Apollo in 1882. I believe 61 have tried and 61 failed, with a handful of runners coming in 2nd. What does Whitey say about this? My feeling is one day the curse will be broken because of the way horses are trained now vs. 20 or 30 years ago. You don’t typically see horses with 8 to 10 races on their resume heading into the derby. Trainers are opting to bring horses along more slowly these days, with more waiting to debut until age 3. However my position is and always will be – it’s an advantage to have foundation at 2 but I don’t necessarily think a horse light on experience is a toss. A freak of nature trying to break the curse should have a legitimate chance to do it. But, as a general rule, an average horse would likely fall short because of lack of foundation.

I do like a horse with foundation – preferably battle tested at 2. Last year, my mother of all bombs horse was battle of Midway — mainly because of the dog fights he was in during the prep races. He ran 3rd at big balloon odds on derby day.

Picks
Here are Whitey’s Top 3 selections.

14– Mendelssohn – ML odds 5-1 – Projected off odds 6 or 7-1.
Loved his smashing win and new track record over in Dubai. It was his first try on dirt and the horse really responded. He was accomplished at 2, taking down the BC Juvenile Turf. Overall, there is a lot to like about this horse and he is regally bred – a half to world champion Beholder, sold for $3 Million at the baby sales. This horse ran like an absolute monster in Dubai, smashing a track record and winning the race by 18. Detractors will say these European shippers have never won the derby and the trainer is 1 for 50 shipping in to the US for dirt races. To that I say – most of the Euro’s didn’t have a legitimate chance – when was the last time one of these horses was 10-1 or below on derby day. Also, the trainer is truly world class. His dirt performance record is poor but most of these horses were turf runners trying the dirt in order to increase stud re-sale values. Bottom line is that his last race is a standout. This was his first race on dirt and, while the track bias did inflate his numbers and length of win, this is the main win contender that must be in all of your exotics. I also like the fact he is battle tested and has shown the ability to ship and win. Can he rate and win? Yes. He did that on the turf. He doesn’t need the lead so a stalking trip today may be beneficial, and the last slot next to Auxiallry gate in post 14 is always coveted. Breeding is good for the Derby and was purchased for $3 million. This horse is a star in the making, and will be in all my wagers. The only thing I wory about is a clean trip/traffic, so a good break is key.

9 – Hofburg – ML odds 20 -1 – Projected off odds 12 to 15 -1.
Has only 3 lifetime starts but seems to be improving with each race. Trainer not known for rushing horses into triple crown races so it makes me wonder if this horse actually has a legitimate chance today. The connections could have easily chosen the Peter Pan and Belmont stakes but instead opted for the Derby. While this horse is light on experience, he is improving and should move forward today. He does have foundation at 2 having run at Saratoga, and then faced some minor medical issues that delayed his 3 yo debut. He ran a decent Florida Derby and was a respectable 2nd and is quickly becoming the wise guy horse. The projected fast pace will help this one’s late kick and he should be rolling late deep in the stretch. He is a great candidate to hit the board, and with some pace help, may even steal the win. His sire Tapit gives him plenty of stamina, and also has plenty of distance pedigree on the dam side with Touch Gold and AP Indy. Win or lose today, this horse will improve with time and distance, and will be tabbing this guy for the Belmont and the 3yo stakes races this summer.

7 – Justify – ML odds – 3-1 – Projected odds 5-2 or 3 to 1
He is an absolute monster. The only thing he lacks is experience, which could be big, and which ultimately led to me slotting him 3rd. The bigger worry for me is this will be the first time he faces pace pressure. Also, he won’t have the lead early on – can he rate? Who knows. Bottom line is– he is the most talented horse in the race and the deserving favorite, but the unknowns around seasoning at 2, and the fact that he hasn’t been battle tested, leads me to not want to back this horse in the win pool. Sure he may win, but the price doesn’t represent value. To me, his true odds should be 6 or 7 to 1. He has beaten a total of 17 horses in 3 lifetime starts, which is less in total that he faces today. Tabbing this one to win the Haskell and to contend in the Travers, and will spray in today’s trifecta.

Superfecta Shenanigans
The below list of horses have a chance to run 4th and fill out the superfecta –
In order of preference:

6 – Good Magic – ML odds 12 -1 – Projected odds 6 to 8 -1.
Talented colt should be well primed for a big effort today. Whitey collected a nice score in the Juvenile on this one, but there are 2 schools of thought on this horse. One is the horse has not improved since his 2 yo campaign, and some say he may have regressed. The other is you have a horse rounding back into form, and he was not fully cranked up by design. I am somewhere in the middle but leaning towards the latter and will trust the world class trainer will have him fully geared up on Derby day. While I do question the horse beat a suspect Blue Grass field and seemed to idle in neutral late in that race, a similar race and trip he had in the Juvenile puts this one in the win-mix. The son of Curlin should like the added distance. With all the buzz surrounding this horse, the ML oddsmaker should be fired on the spot for this abomination.

2 – Free Drop Billy – 30 -1 – Projected odds 22-1
Has regressed in his 3 yo campaign, but I do like his foundation at 2 – racing 5 times, including a win over Churchill Downs. Was impeded late in the blue grass and was moved up to 3rd allowing him to sneak into the Derby field with the extra points. A fast pace would definitely help this one’s late kick and the extra derby distance today will work to his benefit, as he has a lot of stamina breeding on dam side. Realistically, clunking up for 3rd or 4th would be the best case possibility, at a huge number.

18 – Vino Rosso – 12 -1 – Projected odds – 10-1 I was all over this horse early in the year and was a big fan because of the buzz and talent potential. But, he flopped in Tampa races against middling foes. He did bounce back in the Wood but the field was suspect, at best. In addition he was aided by a wide bias in that race. Mixed feeling on this one, and he seems to have the look of a wise guy horse. Seems the steam may have been let out a little when he drew the 19 hole. Anyway, I can see him clunking up for 4th on talent alone. Would be a great Belmont pick based on the pedigree.

Additional Commentary

MOAB – Mother of All Bombs
I recommend a small saver bet on MOAB. It’s a “what the heck” bet based on Whitey’s knowledge of pedigrees that fit the derby.

MOAB – 15 – Instilled Regard – ML Odds 50-1- projected odds 40-1
What’s wrong with Instilled Regard to blow up the board? He will go off at 40-1 or better and has a legitimate chance to improve today with the derby distance. He was purchased for over $1 million and flashed ability against the best 3yo’s at that time in California. He went on to an easy win over a good field in the Lecompt, but then flopped in the Risen Star as the Favorite. This was a merry go round race and two longshots stayed on— but as a forgiving handicapper, I will toss that performance. He then ran a distant 4th to Justify in the SA Derby, but ran on a dead rail and the ride he received from the Jockey was a travesty (I replayed it 5 times and each time I was shaking my head). He needed defections to get into the race. It all sounds negative but the difference maker for me is the pedigree and the trip he should get today. He has the classic speed and stamina pedigree for the derby and has the best center of distribution of any runner. Arch is Sire and has 9 time Grade 1 winner Heavenly Prize on the dam side. Underrated trainer is long overdue to spoil the derby party and gets an aspiring jockey destined for greatness, who will be making his first derby ride. Note, last Year’s MOAB blew up the board for 3rd at odds of 40-1 and we will look for another blow up the board runner to make noise this year.

The Horse I would hate if he won:
11 – Bolt D’Oro – ML odds 8-1 – projected odds – 5-1
If he wins it will be like a knife in Whitey’s eye. I was all over this horse and capped him to win – but then I started to research who the experts were picking – you guessed it – everyone is all over this horse. I am talking the best of the best cappers in the business — not the donkey pickers. Anyway, after much debate, I decided to surrender on this one. Lots to love on the breeding side, by a son of Medaglio D’oro, and also the dam side is loaded with stamina, so he should have no issue with the distance, and in fact would likely improve the further the race. Gets jockey switch here to 3 time Derby champ, Victor Espinosa. If you like him, go to the window – you and all the other expert cappers will cash without me.

Projected Also Rans:
(in post position order)

1 – Firenze Fire – 50 -1 – Seems over matched based on recent form. While he had a decent 2 yo season, and I crushed with him in the Champagne, he would be a big shocker today and the added distance doesn’t help.

3 – Promises Fulfilled – 30-1 – Likely front runner will set his sights on compromising the chances of Justify to benefit the trainer’s other horse – Free Drop Billy.

4 – Flameaway – 30-1 – This is a hard knocking colt and always shows speed and determination in his races. He is your classic battle tested horse. Unfortunately, I think he is up against the pace today, and is a regression candidate, with the added distance.

5 – Audible – 8-1 – Another Pletcher Trainee was impressive in the Florida prep races. The NY bred has done nothing wrong and will also benefit from the pace scenario. While he is definitely a contender and may make noise on derby day, I am going to have to trust my instinct on this one, which is I don’t think he is as good as the form indicates and I question his ability to get the distance. He has a dosage of 5 and would likely not benefit from the added derby distance. Also, his jockey has jumped ship to another Pletcher horse.

8 – Lone Sailor – 50-1 – Seemed to idle late in the LA Derby and overall is probably a notch below the caliber of these horses.

10 – My Boy Jack – 30 -1 – So I will poke holes in his 2 derby prep wins. In the Lexington, he faced a very weak field and the final time was slow. In the Southwest, he took advantage of a rail bias in the slop. To me, it seems like he will be overbet though I think a very fast pace scenario may be his only hope at hitting the board. Would benefit from a wet track.

12 – Enticed – 30-1 – While it wouldn’t shock me to see this one hit the board, there are others I prefer. Seems a cut below the field and his races in NY against questionable competition don’t give me enough faith to back him today.

13 – Bravazo – 50-1 – Seems to be a deserving long shot and would be a shocker if he hit the board. He could also show speed and challenge Justify so it will be interesting to see if he breaks and presses the pace.

16 – Magnum Moon – 6-1 – Never raced at 2 so the Apollo curse is in play. Pletcher trainee took the easy road to the derby, opting for Arkansas prep races. While his resume is impressive and has shown ability to rate, there are some doubts on how good this horse really is based on the questionable competition faced to date. While it scares me to leave off the ticket, there are other horses I prefer over this one. What scares me is – no one – I mean no one — is talking about this horse. Which leads me to believe that he will float up to at least 10-1. If you like him, there is value.

17 – Solomini – 30-1 – Another Baffert horse, seems a cut below the field but if he could figure it all out and switch leads, maybe he runs a big one? Has the breeding for derby distance and would move way up on an off track. Playing against based on prior races, but it wouldn’t shock me if he somehow hits the board, mainly because of the pedigree to go long.

19 – Noble Indy – 30 -1 – Another Pletcher horse, who campaigned in Louisiana, is well rested off that performance. Showed a lot of heart in battling back to win the LA derby, however I have to question the field quality in that one. Gets red hot jockey which is a plus, but to me it feels like he is a cut below the field on talent.

20 – Combatant – 30-1 – Has only a maiden win on the resume and is a classic example of the questionable completion in Arkansas.

Race Lens — How Does the race unfold?
The post draw favors Justify who can sit outside the speed signed on, assuming he breaks well. The horse with the best post situation is Good Magic, in the 6 hole. He will let the speed to inside go and then can tuck in right behind those front runners heading into the first turn, saving ground. Ultimately, I think Justify will stalk in 2nd to the outside of the speed and Mendelssohn and a few others will be in the 3rd flight. I look for Mendelssohn to confront Justify at the top of the stretch, and then the duel starts. One will survive – one won’t. I am hoping that the survivor is Mendelssohn. I will be looking for a late runner to make noise in the stretch and I think the best candidate for that is Hofburg. Can he get up for the win? That would depend on 2 things – when does Mendelssohn engage Justify? And, how fast will the interior fractions be – say the first 3 quarters? Anyway, my gut says Mendelssohn hangs on, but it will be close. The duel loser is no lock for 3rd – they could easily fade further or be swallowed up by a clunker late.

So I am looking at something like – duel winner wins (14), closer rallies but falls short of win and comes in 2nd (9), duel loser hangs on for 3rd (7) over a fast closing horse for 4th (6, 2, or 18 hopefully but realistically any donkey can clunk in)

Keep in mind, in a big field, if a horse doesn’t break it could spell disaster so the scenario I lay out could all go up in smoke 10 seconds into the race. Not to mention, there are about 10 other scenarios that could play out – and I think I reached my quota for perfect scenario calls in last year’s Belmont.

Speaking of the Belmont – An early Look
Astute blog followers are aware that Whitey cold-decked the superfecta in last year’s Belmont – what does that mean for this year’s Belmont – absolutely nothing. Whitey caught lightning in a bottle and his days of playing straight superfectas are over. I have my eye on a few horses for the Belmont, assuming they skip the Preakness. Those would be Vino Rosso – Pletcher has the derby to Belmont down to a science. I also like Hofburg and could throw in Bolt Doro. These are the 3 with the greatest ability to get the mile and a half taxing Belmont distance.

Wagering Strategy
Here, I construct an economic wagering model for the average investor.

$30 Win Mendelssohn
$10 across board on Hofburg = $30
$2 exacta box – Mendelssohn, Hofburg, Justify = $12
$2 Trifecta box – Mendelssohn, Hofburg, Justify = $12
$1 Tri Key – Mendelssohn up top with the following runners in 2nd and 3rd – Hofburg, Justify, Good Magic, Free Drop Billy, Vino Rosso (say as $1 Tri key — 14 WITH 9, 7, 6, 2, 18) = $20
$5 saver win bet – Instilled Regard

Above bets cost $109 total

What happens if the track comes up wet?
Let’s hope it doesn’t – I have had terrible luck on off tracks. I would keep the bets the same but for the action players – feel free to upgrade the following runners for the underneath awards, if you want to do some additional wagering based on “late breaking news”:
Solomini, My Boy Jack, Vino Rosso, Magnum Moon, Instilled Regard

Good Luck to all –
Whitey