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The 2018 Preakness has all the makings of a slop-fest, as rain has been falling for 3 days in the Baltimore area, and the forecast calls for more rain Friday into the first half of Saturday.

This year’s Preakness is shaping up as a match race between the Derby winner Justify, and the Derby runner up Good Magic. The rest of the field is a bunch of donkeys, making this year’s field one of the worst Preakness fields in history.

My overall advice to the betting public — save your money for the Belmont and hope for a Justify Preakness win so you can run to the windows on June 9 to bet against him, as that will be his 6th race this year, and the breeding for a mile and a half is marginal.

If you are looking for a way to make some cash today, you will need to generate value underneath in the exotics because on paper it is tough to see one of the top two horses not winning vs. this field.

So, here are my picks:

5 – Good Magic (3-1)
He is the only one with a realistic chance to turn the tables on Justify. The main advantage he will have today is potentially a better race set up as it looks like there are a few runners that could try and challenge Justify early in the race. So, he should get a nice stalking trip off the speed, and hopefully the jockey does not wait too long before trying to pounce. An early move would be to his advantage to try and get on even terms with the race favorite turning for home. He only lost by 3 lengths in the Derby and he did race on the outside part of the track which was not the ideal place to be on Derby day. Trainer won last year’s Preakness and I think the trip offers some hope to pull off the minor upset.

7 – Justify (1-2)
The deserving heavy favorite will be tough to beat, and faces a very soft field in the 2018 Preakness. Post position to the outside works in his favor and he can probably work out a similar trip as in the Derby, or the jockey can send and just try and beat the early speed horses to the punch. There are basically two reasons why I am ranking this one behind Good Magic today. 1, his gallop out after the derby was terrible and the foot bruise is a little bit of a concern. 2, he was on the rail on Derby day and that was the best place to be. Overall though, he is a monster and tough to knock but at 2 to 5 he will be way overbet and the odds don’t support putting him up top. As mentioned, I will be hoping for a win today because he may be a vulnerable Belmont favorite, as there will horses laying in the weeds waiting for him.

4 – Diamond King (30-1)
This horse is the key to making any money today. There are a few reasons why I like this horse. For one, everyone is tossing him out, saying he doesn’t belong. Are you kidding me? Half the field is coming out of prep races where they were nowhere to be found. So, here is what I like. First, his off track pedigree is stellar and he is trying an off track for the first time. He has mud on both sides and he should like the conditions. 2nd, I really like his grit and determination. I went back to the replay of his 12/30 minor stakes race and he survived a race long duel coming back late to win from the inside, when wide closers dominated the card that day. 3rd, The race two back vs. Strike Power was better than it looked and that horse he lost to is of very high caliber. 4th, He has versatility and can be in a stalking position, which is probably the ideal spot. And then lastly, the trainer is not known to shoot for unrealistic spots and I think this move is a sign of confidence. Can he win? Probably not. But, comparing him to the donkeys in the race, I like him the best to hit the board – the value is there, the off track pedigree is there, he gets the jockey who won last year’s Preakness, and he is a fresh face coming onto the scene in a less-than stellar field.

2 – Lone Sailor (15-1)
He is the only true closer in the field and that is really the only reason I have him slotted here. There should be a decent pace in this race and the late run move could have him clunking up for 4th to ruin the superfecta party. His trip in the Derby was not all that bad and the comments in the racing form were highly inaccurate. Best case is 3rd place, if the pace is really fast. In any case, I recommend you include underneath and hope he can rally late for a share.

Wagering Strategy

Tread Lightly – save your cash for the Belmont

Play a couple trifectas and supers for a minimal investment. In all likelihood the favorites will run 1-2 and it will be difficult to take down a sizable score.

Here is how I will play it:

$20 Tri – Straight
5-7-4

$2 Tri Key
5 with 7-4-2 = $12

$5 Super Straight
5-7-4-2

$5 Super Straight
7-4-5-2

$10 Win Saver – 4

Total – $52

Good Luck to all !!