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Astute followers of the blog probably know that Whitey is not a “derby futures guy”. My stance has always been that the risks outweigh the rewards by a large margin, given the fact that the horse may not even make the starting gate for any number of reasons — injury, not enough points, or flopping in the preps. In addition, given that there are traditionally 20 horses in the derby gate, the odds tend to be generous, often sometimes higher on derby day than in the futures pool.

While it has been a number of years since I dipped my toe into a derby future pool, I’ve decided to take a shot this year on a horse I’ve been tracking since the summer of last year, and mainly because he is under-the-radar, and offers generous odds in future pool 3, which closed last weekend.

That horse is — Spinoff. He is a well-bred derby long shot that could spring an upset on derby day, assuming he gets in the race.

Whitey has $100 on Spinoff at 36-1 in future pool 3. Here is why I like him:

1 – He has sound foundation at 2, racing twice, before being sidelined with a minor injury

2 – Breeding is great, with speed and stamina, on both sides. A son of Hard Spun – a classic speed and stamina horse in his own right, having Danzig (speed) on sire side, and Turkoman and Roberto (stamina) on dam side and dam sire, respectively. Spinoff’s dam was Zatfig, a grade 1 winner. She has influences on sire side as follows: Gone West, Mr. Prospector, and Secretariat. Zatfig’s Dam was Zotfig, also a grade 1 winner and has heavy stamina with Cozzene in pedigree. In any event, with the speed, stamina, and class in the bloodlines, this horse has an extremely nice pedigree for a derby contender.

3 – His comeback race in an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb 22 was extremely impressive, as well as professional. He pressed a very fast pace and was virtually untouched until the top of the stretch. When a rival came up on his flank, the jock gave him some urging and he pulled away to win by 9 lengths. While he didn’t beat much as far as competition, he was visually impressive and I was encouraged hearing the post race comments from both the jockey and trainer.

You can view the race here:

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/tam/2019/2/22/2/race-2-aoc-at-tam-on-2-22-19

4 – Pletcher confirmed he is pointed to a stakes race in his next start, barring any training set backs. This sealed the deal for me in order to take the plunge.

So, what is the downside and risks?

Well, he is way behind the eight-ball in derby points, having started his 2019 late. In all likelihood, he would have to win or place in his next start (in a stakes) to qualify. That’s a big risk. I assume he is bound for a stakes race in his next start based on trainer commentary, and if I was guessing, probably the LA Derby. If he flops or doesn’t hit the board, then he likely won’t make the derby, unless they wheeled him back in 3 weeks for say the Lexington or the Ark Derby.

Anyway, I am banking on two things with this derby future wager – 1, he gets entered in a stakes race and 2, he either wins or runs 2^nd. If both happen, and say he wins the La Derby, I can see his derby day odds at 6 or 8 to 1, and my 36 to 1 will seem like a gift. On the flip side, with the risks highlighted, I deserve every bit of the 36 to 1 odds considering the hurdles he is up against to qualify and gain entry to the derby.

In any event — I am all in on Spinoff as a derby flier.

****3-17-19 Update

Spinoff is confirmed for the Louisiana Derby on March 23rd. Odds unknown but would expect ML anywhere between 5-1 and 10-1.