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The stage is set for the 145^th run for the roses, with post time on Saturday at around 6:45.

As usual, Whitey will try and break down the field and land a winner.

The main story lines for this derby are:

Will we finally get a winner that it is not a favorite? 6 years in a row — will it be 7?

No. History tells us when there is no clear-cut favorite, and the field is laced with mediocre talent, chances for chaos and confusion go up. So, cappers should expect the unexpected.

Whitey’s view is that we are on the verge of a derby upset, mainly because of the way the 3yo prep races have panned out – with longshots finding the winner circle on many occasions. This is a very competitive derby and cases can be made for at least half the field.

What is the impact of the Omaha Beach scratch?

Regarding Omaha Beach, this is by far the main story-line as this development will have an impact on 2 fronts:

1. Improves chances of front runners Vekoma, War of Will and Maximum Security, as the pace will be softer and no one pressing from their outside. We will look at this further in the pace breakdown.
2. Spreads out the betting, with the 3 Baffert runners now the favorites, and it appears the scratch could open the door for a longshot upset

And the other story line is WTF – what is the deal with the weather?

Looks like this could be the 3^rd year in a row where the track is sloppy. There is about a 70% chance of rain on Saturday, which could lead to another off track. We will also look at one runner who could improve if it’s wet.

Bottom Line & Whitey Picks

Normally, I would give you a breakdown of all 20 horses and then give my picks. This year, we will mix it up and get straight to the picks, summarizing how the race will shake out, along with some of the keys to victory. In addition, I will give you my “pilot to bombardier” wet track special horse, that should love the slop, and has a big chance to hit the board.

There are basically 3 pace scenarios I am looking at, from a race set up perspective:

1. A front runner sets a slow pace and wins wire-to-wire
2. Moderate pace, favors pace presser or stalker or even a mid-pack horse
3. Fast or contentious pace favoring the mid-pack or deep closer

So, I landed on scenario 2 as the most likely to occur, and that’s where I will sink or swim. But, let’s just quickly explore the other 2 first.

In scenario 1, which became more likely with the scratch of Omaha Beach, the two horses that will be likely fighting for ownership of the lead are the 6 Vekoma, and the 7 Maximum Security. If either are left alone, it could spell danger, especially for Maximum Security because the trainer is trying to instill stamina in his works to overcome his somewhat questionable pedigree for the distance. I do worry about this scenario playing out, but as most players have a budget to wager, you can’t play them all and you need to take a stand. I would estimate the likelihood of this scenario occurring to be around 15-20%.

Scenario 3, which became less likely with the scratch of Omaha Beach, involves horses hooking up on the lead, potentially 2 to 4 horses battling or 1 horse going out and winging it with 45 and change splits for the half. The wildcard here is War of Will, and what he decides to do. If he is gunning and intent on the lead, we could see the 1,6, and 7, and potentially others if frisky, battling up front. If this occurs, the likely beneficiaries are horses like Game Winner, Code of Honor, and Tacitus, as well as several longshots that could hit the board if a complete meltdown happens. Again, you can’t play them all and have to stake your position wisely, so let’s hope this doesn’t play out. I would estimate the likelihood of this scenario occurring to be around 15-20%.

Before I give you my thoughts on how scenario 2 could play out (or I hope to play out), here is my official picks and order of finish:

1 – War of Will (1 horse) – M/L odds 15 – 1 (projected off odds – 18-1)

2 – Game Winner (16 Horse) – M/L odds 9/2 (projected off odds 4-1)

3 – Spinoff (19 Horse) – M/L odds 30-1 (projected off odds 22-1)

4 – Tacitus (8 horse) M/L odds 8-1 (projected off odds 6-1)

So, basically, 2 pace pressers, 1 mid pack, and 1 mid-pack/closer to hit the super.

Honorable mention of horses I think could hit the board include: Roadster, Improbable, Cutting Humor, Vekoma, Maximum Security, and Tax.

Clunkers for 3^rd or 4^th could be Country House and win win win.

Race Breakdown

Let’s explore further the pace and break it down, specifically how the race may unfold:

I think the pace setter will be Vekoma, with Max Security flanked just off him, along with War of Will.

Spinoff will get a good position in 2^nd flight, maybe 5 lengths off the lead, while Game Winner sits in mid-pack, and wide (he doesn’t like kick-back)

The pace will be moderate, maybe 46 for a half, and 111 and change for 3 quarters.

Heading into the far turn, look for War of Will to pounce, and late runners Game Winner and Tacitus to start making their moves. Spinoff will move up behind War of Will and to his outside.

Turning for home, War of Will is the new leader with the 6 and 7 all-out to stay close. Spinoff will have his target in War of Will about 2 lengths behind him, and now Game Winner is now moved up to 6^th.

Tacitus tries a rail skimming ride on the turn to save ground.

From the eighth pole to the 16^th pole (220 yards out) Spinoff catches War of Will, but can’t get by and is repelled, with War of Will pulling away late. Game Winner is charging hard at the two rivals.

At the finish, War of Will holds on by a neck over Game Winner, with Spinoff 2-3 lengths back in 3^rd and just holding off hard-charging Tacitus to secure 3^rd, with Tacitus 4^th.

I have watched the last 7 or 8 derby replays and it seems most are won by a stalker, presser, (and a few mid-pack horses), with some closers making up ground for 2^nd . Rarely, do the two horses in the lead at the top of the stretch finish in that same order – 1 and 2 (that goes for all races).

It’s quite possible, Tacitus runs 2^nd if the pace is faster or Game Winner is not on his best game (pardon the pun).

Keys to the Race and Breakdown of Top 4

For War of Will:

First, let me say, the worst thing any handicapper could do is cap the winner and then get off him because of his post. Is 1 post ideal? No, of course not. But, it’s not as bad as people think. I watched replays of past derbies and the bottom line is the 1 hasn’t won since 1986 because in most years’ the 1 horse is a donkey, not because of the post. The last 7 years (except once) the 1 horse secured desired position. Like last year, Firenze Fire secured a dream trip just off the leaders, and tucked on the rail. He was 80-1 so did anyone expect him to win?

Bottom line — any capper who likes the 1 pre-draw, and gets off him because of the draw – then Whitey says, “it’s your own damn fault” if he wins. Echoes of “I loved the 1 but hated his draw” could be ringing out post-race. Don’t be one of those guys. I learned many years ago – which will be noted in my upcoming book – wager based on the horse’s credentials, and how you project he will run today, and ensure some value is there —- and golden rule —- never let post position significantly influence your decision. Note, this doesn’t apply to two horses you like about the same, and one of them has a dis-advantageous post. (in this case, if you like 2 horses, it’s okay for the post draw to be the tiebreaker)

The mis-conception for the derby and the one hole is as follows….

The 1 horse has the best chance to get knocked into the elbow, or get shuffled back, or pinched back just out of the gate because the wall of horses that want to get over to the rail in their effort to save ground. The fact is, yes, that is partially true, but it shouldn’t apply as a negative to either:

1. Horses that like to be on the lead and have speed out of the gate, or
2. Horses that are closers, who are content to be in the back, saving ground

Everyone else – all other styles, especially mid pack or stalkers do have a better chance to be compromised due to the wall I mentioned, and the more likely possibility of trouble. War of Will is a speed horse, and therefore, the 1 hole fixation, in fact, doesn’t apply (assuming he breaks decent).

Okay, with all of that out of the way….here is what War of Will needs to do (Whitey’s pre-race message to the Jockey)

Break sharp out of the gate. If you are a step slow, you could be toast.

Instead of rushing to the lead into the first turn, here is an idea, let the 6 and 7 pass you, and then you can wheel-out in a flanking position, or just stay put on the rail in 3^rd (if mud in your eye is okay).

If you decide not to follow these instructions and are intent on being the pace setter, well, too bad for me, as my win ticket goes up in smoke. This is not a recipe to win the derby, as your fate is dictated on whether the 6 or 7 decides to press you along the way from the outside.

Bottom line, break well, show speed, clear the field, or at least the inside horses, and then entering the first turn, let the speed horses pass you so that you can get the dream, pressing position.

Turning for home, you should be able to pass the overmatched 6 and 7 and hopefully hold off the closers to win the 2019 Derby!!!

Here is how I breakdown War of Will:

Pros

Threw in a clunker in the LA Derby as he had gate issues as well as hind leg issues. Comment in form was “Lost Action”. This was a legitimate excuse. However, the betting public will likely penalize his last race, leading to increased value at the window. In my view, his biggest asset is his running style and pedigree for the derby distance, and I think the time off from his last race will be an advantage. Bottom line is, this horse is extremely talented and had legitimate excuse in the LA Derby. Should benefit from pace pressing running style, and I also like that he has a victory in the slop at Churchill downs. Overall, this is mainly a value-play for Whitey, as his off odds will be higher than his actual chances of winning. And over time, betting for value is the only way to secure long term profits in the pari-mutual game.

The two main reasons why he won’t be 8-1 or less, as he deserves to be, is because people don’t know how to draw a line through a race (and are fixated with speed figs or how he ran last out). His excuse last time was legitimate and should be viewed as such. And, the 2^nd reason is, he drew the 1 hole. This is a real trend amongst the betting public. Many people will go in a different direction because of the post, leaving us inflated odds.

Cons

He didn’t face many world-beaters on the LA prep circuit, so it is a little tough to make a strong case for the company lines. Has done most of his damage from wide-posts, so the inside may not be ideal based on where he typically wants to be.

Summary

Has a big chance with a savvy ride – While he doesn’t have the gaudy speed figs, that shouldn’t sway you to toss this guy. The time off will help, and has been training great on the CD oval.

Distance Pedigree Grade – A – Derby pedigree is very good and the distance should be no problem

Off track Pedigree Grade – B – Already has a win on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs and would say his pedigree fits slop.

Game Winner

Game Winner’s best chance to win would involve a slightly faster pace where he can close into the leaders late, overtaking them for the win slot. The post draw is actually pretty good for this guy as the two on his left are horses with no speed, and he should be able to secure a tactical position 3^rd flight as mid pack, and tracking to the outside. This guy doesn’t like kick back too much so I surmise the jockey will have him to the outside on the first turn, maybe 4 or 5 wide. This is a good slot. The key for this guy will be timing his move. The jockey was criticized for his ride in the SA Derby as he moved too soon and was caught late by his stablemate. So, there is a chance he may wait a little longer today to make his one-run close.

Pros

Trained by the derby-wizard, Bob Baffert, who has dominated this race in recent years, Game Winner has disappointed since winning the BC Juvenile last fall at CD, as he finished 2^nd in both his 3YO starts. While his Rebel performance was understandable given the long layoff, many are left to wonder what happened in the SA Derby. Was he not fully cranked? Did he peak as a 2YO? How will he do in a much bigger field today? While these questions are legitimate, I am trending towards thinking this guy will bounce back given his affinity for CD, and the trust factor with Baffert having this one set for a peak performance.

Cons

The SA Derby was a disappointment but some question the jockey may have moved too soon. I fear “over-compensation” and being too far back in a crowded field. Some have indicated that maybe he peaked as a 2-year-old. Tactically speaking, the scratch of Omaha Beach doesn’t help as he likes to close and an honest or strong pace would work to his advantage. Also, the win value dropped, as he will likely be the post time favorite.

Summary – Great chance to win on talent and intangibles, but value is missing. Must use in all exotics.

Distance Pedigree Grade – A – Derby pedigree is excellent and the distance should be no problem

Off track Grade pedigree – A – This will be his first time on a sloppy track but has slop breeding on both sides including AP Indy, Candy Ride, Indian Charlie, In Excess, Blushing Groom

Spinoff

Come on Whitey – a 30-1 shot? Yes!!!!

I’ve been tracking this horse since last summer and even backed it up with a derby future wager on this guy in Pool 3.

Spinoff has a huge advantage with his post, as there are no real speed types to his immediate left and he should have no trouble establishing the position he wants, 2^nd flight, heading into the first turn. With Omaha Beach scratching from the 12 post, he can play the stalker type, taking up a position which could have been held by Omaha Beach.

The key to the race is as follows:

1 – break well and get the 2^nd flight position in the first turn

2 – Don’t move too soon on the far turn. Wait and wait. Keep grinding. Then pounce mid-stretch. If you are good enough, you can hit the board, and maybe even win?

Why should the jockey wait to move?

Spinoff’s trainer noted in his last race in the LA Derby the jockey made the lead too soon and he started looking around, and was unfocused in the lane. This led to the winner passing him, and a resulting 2^nd place finish. I also noted this in his previous race at Tampa Bay Downs – where he made the lead way too early, and then he let the competition sneak up on him. In that race, there was inferior competition and Spinoff was able to romp home by daylight after a few taps of the whip by his jockey to get him more focused in the stretch.

Pros

Pletcher trainee, is well bred for the derby distance, with a great blend of speed and stamina. His running style fits the derby winning profile. But, the other deciding factor for me, which led me to place the future wager, I am extremely high on his talent, and I think he is coming into the race poised for a big effort. I especially like that he was rested after the LA Derby and wasn’t thrown into another prep race to try and secure the points needed. Had time off, is well-rested, and is in capable training hands — this gives me confidence he can improve today.

Cons

The biggest knock is experience, as he is lightly raced, with only 4 efforts on his resume. Typically, I like to see more foundation, but he got a late start coming back from injury in Feb. Also, he gets a downgrade with his Jockey, as Johnny V elected to ride Code of Honor.

Summary – Wildcard horse could be feast or famine. Worth a saver win bet, especially if you are not sold on War of Will. Hitting the board is within the realm of possibilities if trip works out as planned, and he is as good as I think (talent-wise).

Distance Pedigree Grade– A – Derby pedigree is excellent as described in detail in my previous post found here:

Ponycapper Eyes 2019 Derby Day Longshot – Spinoff !!

Off track pedigree Grade – B plus – Ran great on a good track and has off track pedigree in his lines such as Gone West and….

Tacitus

For this guy to get up for the win, he would need a fast pace, as he got in both of his last two prep races. The set up would likely be a mid pack placing along the rail after the speed vacates, he can slide down and save all of the ground. The key for him is working out a trip from there, and navigating expected traffic.

Pros

What I like most is his ability to overcome adversity during the race, as he shrugged off bumping and trouble in the first turn of the Wood. Also, that race’s speed figures came back strong figure-wise. This guy moves way up on an off track with solid mudders in his pedigree including….

Hall of famer Bill Mott is due for a derby win, and this guy represents his best chance in quite some time. It took me a while to come around to this one’s talent, but upon further review, I am a fan. His best chance to win would be a fast pace, saving ground, and making a move on the turn.

Cons

Seasoning and foundation are the primary concerns, as he only has 4 races on the ledger. This horse is getting some buzz around the track and I fear his 8-1 becomes 6-1.

Summary – The one to fear. If he can work out a trip, he is dangerous. Must use in all exotics.

Distance Pedigree Grade – A – Derby pedigree is excellent with Tapit on top, as the distance should be no problem

Off track Grade pedigree – A plus – Has experience in the slop, and ran well. Bred for slop on both sides and the dam Close hatches was 2 for 2 in the slop. Has good wet pedigree with Pulpit, Unbridled, Storm Cat, Gone West, Seattle Slew all mixed in.

Pilot to Bombardier Wet Track Longshot

The Pilot to Bombardier segment focuses on a longshot that will be ignored by the betting public, but has a realistic chance at hitting the board, and blowing up the super.

The last two “Pilot” horses both hit the super, with 80-1 Instilled Regard coming in 4^th last year, and 40-1 Battle of Midway coming in 3^rd in 2017.

Let’s go with a wet track bomber today….

How about Cutting Humor? The off-track pedigree is spectacular. He has a line of wet track sires running through his bloodlines on both sire and dam side.

I have above average grades on all the sires noted below, and they are all in his family tree.

Sire side – First Samaria

Storm Cat, Dixieland band, Rahy, Blushing Groom, Fappiano

Dam Side

Pulpit/AP Indy/Seattle Slew, Mr Prospector, Phone Trick/Clever Trick

If you google Iron Maidens Wet track pedigree, you will see the reference point, and the inclusions on their list noted above, as upgrades on wet tracks.

Besides the wet track, there are also some other positives to note, including:

• Top notch trainer
• Set a track record in his last prep race
• Had some trouble in his Oaklawn prep race and I think this is a toss
• Pedigree for derby distance is excellent
• Gets local “hot” jockey who knows the circuit and had a great spring meet at Keenland
• Well rested

In summary, we should get every bit of the 30-1 shot as no one is mentioning him in the derby run-up, and he appears to be a true under-the-radar type that could improve on a wet track, and has the potential to hit the superfecta.

Q&A with Whitey

Whitey, who are the buzz or wise guy horses?

Based on what I read and hear during the extensive research process, it is definitely — By My Standards. The horse has been working well and the railbirds are chirping, which is contributing to the buzz. His odds will likely go down from the M/L odds of 15-1. Last year’s wise guy horse – My Boy Jack, was an absolute flop.

The other horse garnering lots of love is Code of Honor. He seems to be a trendy derby pick.

Whitey, who are the best mudders, based on breeding?

In order of preference:

• Cutting Humor
• Tacitus
• Game Winner
• Vekoma
• Improbable
• Tax
• War of Will
• Bodexpress

Whitey, you gave good insight on the one hole, what are the worst posts for the derby?

The 14 hole is the worst, evidenced by the last few years where Classic Empire and Mendelsohn both were wiped out in last two, respectfully. The 14 is the last stall in the main gate before the auxiliary gate starts. There is a big gap between the two gates, meaning between the 14 and 15 horses. Basically, the 14 horse can get wiped out by the 15, 16, 17, as they tend to veer left out of the gate to try and save ground. This doesn’t bode well for the Japanese horse as he went from 15 to 14 stall with the scratch of Omaha Beach.

The 2^nd worst is the outside 3 gates if the horse is a closer.

The 3^rd worse is the one hole if the horse is not a speed horse or stone closer.

Whitey, I am hearing rumors the 11 horse Haikal may scratch?

Yes, this is a possibility due to foot issue. The impact is good for War of Will as the one hole slot will be empty as all of the horses – 1 through 10 – would move over 1 slot. So, the 1 horse will break from the 2 stall, with the one stall empty.

Whitey, what horse do you fear may run big that you won’t have on your tickets?

Probably Tax. He is really bred well for the derby distance and has a great pedigree profile, and center of distribution. He too, should also like the slop.

Whitey, what do we make of Maximum Security?

Tough call. Lot to like, but many question marks. The bottom line is…. I have to trust one of my handicapping angles — which is anytime a horse with weak pace figures is jumping up in class, you should downgrade. Typically, the faster pace required with class hike, results in reduced speed fig. I may use defensively underneath as the scratch of Omaha Beach really helps him.

Whitey, what do you think of the other Baffert runners?

Legit, but you can’t play them all. Improbable is getting some pre-race buzz but the derby breeding is not ideal with City Zip on top. Though his wet track pedigree is great. Roadster has only beaten small fields but seems to have the more talent of the two. Overall, mixed feelings and the fact that I can’t decide on which one to use, will likely mean that I wind up excluding them both from exotics.

Whitey, your track record is the derby is marginal – WTF – when will we see a winner?

Yes, that is correct. The parade of favorites the last 6 years has dampened spirits and drained the wallet. With 20 horses signed on each year, all you can do is keep plugging away, follow the process, look for value, apply sound handicapping principles, do extensive research including pedigrees and race replays, and put the best thoughts on paper. Also, anytime you’re dealing with 20 horses in a starting gate, an element of luck is always in play.

Worst case, don’t bet the derby, and instead wait for the Belmont to try and take down a score.

Whitey, lastly, I have a small budget of $120 – how should I bet the derby?

Here is your blueprint:

• $40 win – War of Will
• $10 Saver win – Spinoff
• $2 exacta box – War of Will, Spinoff, Game winner = $12
• $2 exacta box – War of Will, Spinoff, Tacitus = $12
• $1 tri box – War of Will, Spinoff, Game Winner, Tacitus = $24
• 50 cent tri key = $10
  • Game Winner with the following horses in 2^nd/3^rd – War of Will, Spinoff, Tacitus, Cutting Humor, Maximum Security
• 50 cent tri key = $10
  • Tacitus with the following horses in 2^nd/3^rd – War of Will, Spinoff, Game Winner, Cutting Humor, Maximum Security

Total wagers $118

Good luck to all!!!

Whitey