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The stage is set for the 2019 Preakness, with clear skies and a fast track expected.

The main storyline is that both the Derby winner, Country House, and main contender Maximum Security are missing in action. This will represent the first time since 1996 that a Derby winner has missed the Preakness.

The field of 13 expected will be compromised of 4 also rans from the Derby, including the race favorite, Improbable.

We will keep this year’s Preakness Analysis short, and to the point.

Bold Predictions

I have 3 bold predictions for this year’s Preakness.

1 – Betting Action

Be aware that the morning line is slightly off for a few runners, and you can expect “reduced odds” on two runners:

Alwaysmining is listed as 8-1 on the ML. He will likely go off at around 5-1. He has reeled off a series of wins at Laurel Park and will garner a lot of support from the local crowd.

Bourbon War is listed at 12-1 on the ML. He will likely go off at around 7 or 8 to 1. The track oddsmaker butchered this ML.

2 – Closers will fare well

With an expected fast pace on tap, I can see closers having a good day. I don’t know if this will translate into a victory for one of the closers, but I do foresee that they will make noise late, and have a great chance for 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th.

There are 4 or 5 pace pressers signed up for this race and I can see a contentious pace developing, with a fairly hot pace, perhaps 46 and change for the half, and 111 and change for three quarters.

This will benefit the mid pack horses and closers.

3 – The Race Favorite, Improbable, will not hit the board

How this horse went favored in the Derby is beyond me. He is nothing more than a mediocre runner that hails from the Baffert barn.

The two main reasons why I think he finishes OTB is that:

His Derby didn’t impress me – He had an absolute dream trip in the Derby stalking the pace, and when the commotion went on with the bumping, he had every opportunity to hit the gas and make a move. Instead, he floundered right behind the 4 leaders turning home and was only able to pass one of them in route to a 5^th place finish.

He loves the slop and yet didn’t respond on Derby day.

He has distance limitations based on his sire City Zip and I would question his ability say beyond one mile and an eighth.

This is his 3^rd race in 5 weeks, which is never ideal.

And lastly, an inclination, that the jockey will have this one much closer to the pace today, based on the Trainers commentary that he wasn’t happy with where he was in the Derby. To me, this is the wrong time to try and change a horse’s running style. Mike Smith has always been known as an aggressive rider and I can see this one off the flank of the early leaders which will spell disaster late, as he likely won’t have any gas left for the last quarter mile.

It all adds up to an over-bet favorite coming off a sub-standard Derby finish and high profile trainer.

I wouldn’t fault anyone for using defensively underneath as a pre-caution, in the event he is lucky and holds on for a share of 3^rd or 4^th.

My Top 4

1 – War of Will – 1 horse – 4-1 ML

War of Will was compromised in the Derby but has a chance to rebound today with a less-eventful trip. Would he have won the Derby? No. Maximum Security was clearly the best horse. However, its fair to say the incident didn’t help his cause, as the horse was fairly loaded and had to check off heels losing key momentum.

I have not lost faith in this runner’s ability.

The ideal trip for War of Will would be to stalk the leaders and hope to find some room turning for home. I would like to see the jockey wheel this one to the outside at some point during the race to ensure a cleaner trip turning for home.

Don’t be surprised if the price floats up to perhaps 5-1 as the betting public may gravitate away from him due to post position.

By all accounts, the horse is thriving at Pimlico and shows no sign of wear and tear from the taxing Derby, and he may be set up for a peak performance, 2^nd race off a freshening,

The bottom line is this is a very talented horse and I think he will get first run turning for home, pulling away from anothertwistoffate late, and holding off the deep closers to win by a neck.

13 – Win Win Win – 13 horse – 15-1 ML

This horse should be considered a prime threat to hit the board based on the following:

An expected fast pace is on tap which will help his late kick.

His Derby performance is a toss. He clearly didn’t like the slop and dead closers were compromised in the race. Draw a line through the race.

His Blue Grass race is deceptively good. I watched that replay and this horse encountered trouble on the far turn, which cost him crucial momentum.

The theory that the horse will be better positioned today based on the addition of blinkers. I would not be surprised if he is sitting mid pack today instead of floundering at the back early.

The horse has ability and is locally based.

The best part about his narrative is that we will get tons of value on this horse, as I expect to get at least 15-1 because no one is talking about him, they see the dud in the Derby, and they will write him off because he drew the far outside.

Blinkers can only help get this one focused especially to help address the gate issues. I see him getting the dream trip, and rallying off a fast pace to make things interesting late.

Consider an outsider for the win slot and a must use in all exotics underneath, with added consideration because of his expected inflated odds.

3 – Bourbon War – 2 horse – ML 12-1

Bourbon War also has a chance to arrive late on the scene, trying to pick up a slice of the exotics. There is a lot to like about this guy as his Florida Derby performance was flattered by Maximum Security’s Derby performance. The day of the Florida Derby, he was severely compromised by the track bias, which favored speed all day. Going 2 back, the effort in the Fountain of Youth makes this one a threat based on the way he finished, and the fact that he could get a similar pace scenario.

The addition of blinkers will keep this one closer to the pace, as evidenced by the speed-inducing workouts you see on the recent tab.

Gets dream post today and will be saving all of the ground around both turns. Lots to like here and will be including in the underneath slots.

Only downside is the expected reduction in price at the window, as realistically 6 to 8 to 1 is more in line with the likely final odds.

4 – Anothertwistoffate – 12 horse – 6-1 ML

Lots of debate on this guy, but ultimately, I landed on him as a contender based on his consistency and opportunity to improve from an outside post. I don’t think he appreciated the inside running lane in the Lexington and he may get first run with War of Will as they turn for home.

Also, I am big fan of the jockey switch.

Including here defensively, and there is an outside chance he hits the exacta with a dream trip.

Some Notes on the other runners

7 horse – Alwaysmining – Talented horse faces class test today. Ultimately, I landed in the “against camp” because of his running style, the unknowns of how good he really is, and the expected deflated price. You can’t play them all and sometimes tough decisions need to be made.

5 Owendale – Looks to be this year’s wise guy horse. Getting a lot of love from the media and rail birds. How did this angle work for the Derby wise guy horse BY My standards — not good. I am betting that his last race was a fluke, though I may include as a possible underneath spoiler.

11 Laughing Fox – This longshot could be the horse that ruins everyone’s superfecta tickets. If the pace is hot, he can definitely clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th and a big price.

How the Race Unfolds

The projected pace runners will be the 3, 6, 9, and possibly the 4. War of Will and Anothertwistoffate will be the two in the catbird seat to take the lead turning for home. A battle between these two could develop in the stretch. Looking for Anothertwistoffate to tire late and War of Will to hold off the deep closers to win in a close and exciting finish.

Wagering

Play it like this:

Big win bet 1

Small win bet 13

Exacta box – 1-2-13

Tri box – 1-2-12-13

50 cent Tri key — 1 with 2-5-11-12-13 with same

Good Luck

Ponycapper