Capper's Corner

Jump to Comments

Whitey is heating up after a solid Preakness….

Moving onto the Belmont….Here are the main story lines for this year’s Test of a Champion….

• No Triple Crown on the line…
  • Typically, over the last dozen years or so, when there hasn’t been a TC at stake, chaos has reigned supreme, with medium priced horses, and longshots finding the winners circle.
• Field Quality….
  • This year’s Belmont is shaping up as one of the weakest in recent memory, with the Derby Winner – Country House, OUT, and best horse in the Derby, Maximum Security, Out, what are we left with? Answer – Not much, other than the two race favorites, Tacitus and War of Will, a bunch of marginal talent.
• Field Analysis….
  • The race can be summed up as follows: Little speed, a bunch of horses with similar running styles, several well-bred for the distance but short on talent, potential vulnerable favorites…that is — Tacitus is a one run closer and these types don’t typically get the money in the slower paced Belmont. War of Will, who’s best game may not be a mile and a half, and may not have his “A” game, as he is the only guy running in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown.
• The Weather….
  • Looks like a fast track for Saturday and may offer vindication of derby runners who hated the slop and gooey Derby track.

Before we get into the field breakdown, lets re-cap the key handicapping variables and horse profiles that are ideal for finding a Belmont winner. These are horses that:

• Are well rested, and skip the Preakness
• Are well bred and have a stamina-heavy pedigree profile to get the monster mile and a half distance
• Have a running style suited for the Belmont – which is a stalker, has tactical speed, like to be close to the pace, or at worst, mid-pack runners with tactical speed
• Have talent, and fit on numbers, and good speed figures going back to previous races
• Offer betting value, or who’s odds of winning are much better than the odds on the tote board
• And, one more thing that is a plus…. Going back the last 10 years in non-triple crown Belmont races (where no TC was on the line), the race has been dominated by horses who ran in the Derby —often not running well, and then finding redemption in the Belmont. Horses like Tapwrit in 2017, Creator in 2016, Palace Malice in 2013, and Union Rags in 2012. Often these were decent price horses, over 10-1, because they ran poorly in the Derby.

I have fared well with the above recipe and have nabbed some “nice price” winners lately, such as Tapwrit and Tonalist.

Picks and Analysis

Whitey’s Top 4 (in order of preference)

4 – Tax

ML odds 15-1, projected off odds, 17-1

Tax checks all the Belmont profile boxes. He is well-rested, skipping the Preakness, and this will only be his 3^rd start in 2 months. As mentioned, the Derby to Belmont route is an ideal path, with positive ROI in recent years.

Tax is one of the best-bred horses in the field for the grueling distance. The other two on par are Tacitus and Intrepid Heart. Tax has tremendous stamina influences on both sides including Arch as his sire, with Kris S and Roberto as stamina influence. On dam side, has stamina influences Giants Causeway, AP Indy and Northern Dancer. He should like the stretch out and would seem to benefit from the grinding style required for the Belmont.

His running style is stalker, mid-pack horse who will find himself closer to the pace today, with the slower pace expected. With an ability to stay close and pounce at the right time, Tax could get an ideal trip, getting first run, and holding off the closers. The draw out of the 4 post is ideal with a speed ball and two dead closers to his left, he can easily sit behind the one horse, and save all the ground on the sweeping Belmont turns.

Tax has a lot of talent – more than people would give him credit for, as he has 3 triple digit Brisnet speed figures on his resume, in his 3 races prior to the Derby. Aside from Derby, he has a 101, 102, 103. And, how many horses have recorded a triple digit Brisnet number? 3 — Tacitus in the Wood (103), Spinoff in the LA Derby (102) and Sri Winston in the Peter Pan (101).

Tax offers a lot of value, with expected off odds of at least 15-1. He only lost to Tacitus in the Wood by a length, so it’s hard for me to understand the expected disparity in the odds between the likely race favorite and Tax.

Naysayers will point out:

1 – He didn’t run well in the Derby

2 – He is a former claimer that doesn’t belong at this level of competition

Here are my responses:

Draw a line through the Derby. Clearly, he hated the track and the kickback he received while racing on the rail. Huge profits await handicappers once they learn how to draw a line through a race and can forgive poor showings with a valid excuse. Secondly, in a normal year, where the 3yo crop is decent or good, I would say yes, class is a concern. But, let’s be realistic. This is a weak 3 yo class and Belmont Stakes – which is already missing Maximum Security. He has already shown that he fits with this group based on his 2^nd place Wood effort, and strong speed figures in the preps.

In Summary, Tax has every chance for redemption today given the profile, stamina pedigree, running style, and talent. He has an underrated trainer, and is now switching to one of the leading jocks, who won 3 years ago on Creator. I also like that Belmont is his home track, going way back to his 2 yo campaign. No other horse in the field has as much experience training over this oval, which can only be an advantage.

The bottom line is if you commit to betting on value plays — that is the horse’s true odds of winning are greater than actual track odds — you have the greatest chance at turning a long-term profit and yield a positive ROI. In this case, Tax’s true odds are somewhere in the 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 range and we will get at least 15-1.  Whitey says — take a flier on Tax, and hope for a good trip, and that the jockey can navigate inside a tiring one horse on the final turn and hold off the closers late.

10 – Tacitus

ML Odds 9-5, projected off odds 8-5

Tacitus checks many of the Belmont boxes, and is a horse to fear based on talent, strong pedigree, and he comes in well-rested.

He ran a decent race in the Derby, closing to be 4^th and promoted to 3^rd, though he really wasn’t flying in the lane or making up a ton of ground late.

His biggest assets — he has tons of talent and has great bloodlines, with stamina on both sides, and sired by Tapit.

I would have no issue with anyone that says, “Whitey I am betting large on Tacitus because he is the best horse in the race”. I would never talk anyone off the horse because he is a legit contender. But for me personally, the value isn’t there, as you are likely only getting 2-1 or less. The more prudent play in my eyes, assuming you really like him, is to key him on top in the trifecta and get some prices underneath.

The biggest knock against this guy is his running style. In his victories in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood, he got the perfect set up for his one-run closing style. A fast pace was the key. Today, he will need to convert from a one-run closer to more of a mid-pack grinder, because of the longer distance and slower pace. Just to illustrate, in the Tampa Bay Derby he closed into fast fractions of 45 and change for the half. The Belmont will be run at 47 and change and maybe even 48, and likely 112 and change for three quarters.  

In summary, lot to like, but you are banking on him to either get the fast pace he needs or to change his running style to be more forwardly placed. Either is a risk, and the likely outcome is a closer who hits the board, but falls short of winning.

6 – Spinoff

ML odds – 15 -1, projected off odds – 20-1

Blog followers know I am a huge fan of this guy, and I am willing to forgive the Derby slop-fest debacle, based on the comments made by the trainer. Today, he has every right to improve and will be forwardly placed, with an opportunity to get a dream trip with a patient ride. Breeding is good for the distance, as outlined in a previous post, and have always been a fan, based on talent. He is trained by Pletcher, who has 3 Belmont wins on his resume, and now gets an overdue Belmont winning rider in Castellano. My one bold prediction here is that turning for home, if you have a win wager on him, you will start to feel excited, as he will be in the mix, with a legitimate chance. Whether he is good enough down the lane, who knows. They key for him is not moving too soon as he likes a target, and is prone to wandering or losing focus when he gets the lead. Looks like all systems go for this guy based on the speedy recent workouts and don’t be surprised if he is stalking the pacesetter, the one horse. The one aspect I am a little critical of is his jockey. He moved too soon in 2016 on Destin, when he lost by a nose. And, last year, he took huge criticism for not sending his mount (Noble Indy) to the lead or staying close to the pace early to challenge Justify. (Even the owner was critical). What does it all mean – I don’t know. But, I hope he knows that his horse has speed and needs to be near the lead early, for his best chance to win.

Bottom line, include based on trip scenario, and if he is good enough, has big shot to hit the board.

7 – Sir Winston

ML Odds – 12-1, Projected off odds, 12-1

Let me introduce my superfecta spoiler. This guy has all the makings of a clunk-up-out-of-nowhere horse, that will be closing fast. The key for this guy — was the jockey switch. I watched several of the race replays of this horse and it became clear the previous jockey had him way too far back in the early stages. In the Peter Pan, the jockey switch to Rosario could be the key. Yes, he was trailing, but he made his move much, much earlier in the race, which spurred his 2^nd place finish. Leave this guy out of your tris and supers at your own risk. He appears to like Belmont and I can see him ruining many people’s superfecta dreams with a late charge to get to get 3^rd or 4^th.

Other Contenders to consider for Using Underneath

5 – Bourbon War

ML Odds – 12-1, Projected off odds 7-1

Had a legitimate excuse in Preakness as he washed out before the race. Perhaps taking the blinkers off and the jockey switch to Money Mike Smith could improve his chances. I would expect him more forwardly placed by the more aggressive rider, and his best plan of attack would be to sit mid pack and try and pounce. Overall, mixed feelings on this guy as I liked him in the Preakness and he flopped with a probable excuse. Will likely use defensively underneath.

Horses I am playing against and hoping for the best

9 – War of Will

ML Odds – 2-1, projected off odds 5-2

I loved him in the Derby and Preakness, and now it’s time to jump ship. I learned a long time ago not to fall in love with a horse on the TC trail and keep betting him no matter the circumstances. Today is a different track and distance and while I believe in the talent, I have to play against this guy today.

To me — it’s hard to believe he is even running in this race with no TC on the line. His connections might be best-served by passing here, with an eye towards the summer classics, including the Haskell and Travers. If any of those are a goal, not sure how the 3^rd start in 5 weeks over a demanding distance would help that cause.

Sure, WoW could win — he is a very good horse. And, there is a part of me that’s rooting for him because he is extremely talented. But, for me, in the Belmont, he has too many things going against him, namely:

He is the only runner to race in all 3 legs of the TC.

3 races in 5 weeks is a problem, not because he will be tired, but because of the disruption to his training regime. After the Preakness, most trainers will give horses rest before resuming workout activity. That is valuable time lost for Belmont prep. I can’t see how this guy will be primed for a peak performance with training limitations, especially with the distance of the race.

He is a classic “push-button” runner. If you look at the races he won, he displayed tremendous turn of foot to blow by the competition and coast to an easy win. Has he ever been a stretch tussle? NO – not on the dirt. He has cruised to victories and made it look easy. I can’t really see the him flipping the switch in the Belmont, with the slower pace and more quality stalkers to contend with (yes, the Preakness field was a joke).

He got the ideal trip in the Preakness. Stalked a weak pace runner, and made his move along the rail, which was the best part of the track all day.

In summary, be happy for the gift odds in the Preakness as he should have been half that – the horse looked great on paper and was ignored at the window. Now, I am turning the page, and taking a stand against — if I am wrong, then so be it. Too many red flags here and unless this horse is truly great, I expect him to be in contention and then hit the brick wall in the last quarter mile. The combination of —- being confronted late by other well rested runners, the reality of 3 races in 5 weeks, and some pedigree questions on sire side for a mile and a half distance, could ultimately determine his fate as an “also ran” today.

Projected Also Rans

2 – Everlast

ML Odds – 12-1, projected off odds 10-1

Light bulb finally went off in Preakness and reports are glowing preparing for the Belmont. Running style not conducive for Belmont win, but clunking up for 3^rd or 4^th not out of question. At best, if you like him, use underneath.

3 – Master Fencer

ML Odds 8-1, projected off odds 6-1

This guy will take tons of Japanese money and many will love his late burst of speed in the Derby. If the track was wet today, then I would be using. But, we have a fast track today and the slower pace will compromise his late run. At best, I see the horse only with a chance to clunk up for 4^th. Has all of the makings of an overbet horse, who likely will run like a donkey.

8 – Intrepid Heart

ML Odds – 10-1, projected off odds 7-1

This is your Belmont wise guy horse. 10 years ago, I might have been duped into this guy — flashy pedigree, GREAT breeding for the distance, hall of fame trainer, adding blinkers, lightly raced, etc. etc.

But, he doesn’t check one key box for me, which is Talent. He was the worst favorite in a stakes race I have seen all year. Coming off 2 wins – a maiden win and first level allowance win, he was made the even money favorite over Global Campaign in the Peter Pan, who clearly had the better resume. To check the quality of the two wins, I went back and checked the charts on both races and researched what the “also rans” did in their subsequent races. There was only one horse from both races who came back to win, and that was likely because it was a class dropper. Overall, field quality was highly suspect in his two victories and his effort in the Peter Pan gives me no confidence to back him here, especially as a bet down wise-guy horse, that everyone is talking about, and is the trendy Belmont pick.

1 – Joevia

ML Odds – 30-1, projected off odds 50-1

Likely pace setter will try and steal it on the lead. Has sprint/mile pedigree, and is a guy for longshot lovers only.

Race Set Up

Let’s look at running style and how the race will unfold.

Running Style projections:

• Pacesetters
  • Joevia
• Up near the lead
  • Intrepid Heart, Spinoff, War of Will
• Stalkers – Mid Pack
  • Tax, Bourbon War, Tacitus
• Closers
  • Sir Winston, Everlast, Master Fencer

Here is how I see the race unfolding:

Joevia pops out to the lead. Intrepid Heart, with blinkers added will be flanked on his hip, with Spinoff and War of Will tracking in 3^rd. I see Tax getting a dream run, saving ground on the rail, tucked 3 or 4 lengths off the lead rounding the first turn. Tacitus will be more forwardly placed today, mid pack. Bourbon War is the wildcard. What will he do? Mike Smith likes to be aggressive so I can see him trying to stay a lot closer today.

Turning for home, look for Spinoff and War of Will to make their moves, circling around the two horses in front. Tax will try and sneak up the rail, and look for an opening around the tiring Joevia. Tacitus will start his long grind.

At the top of the stretch, look for Spinoff to shake off War of Will and Tax to make his move, with these two moving away. Tacitus is in range now and is ready to pounce. Nearing the wire, Spinoff tires and Tax and Tacitus wind up in a photo finish for the win. Spinoff holds on for 3^rd over a fast closing Sir Winston, with Everlast clunking up for 5^th.

Predicted order of finish:

4 – 10 – 6 – 7 – 2

How to Play it:

• Win bet – Tax
• Exacta Box – Tax and Tacitus
• Exacta Box – Tax, Tacitus, Spinoff
• Trifecta Box – Tax, Tacitus, Spinoff, Sir Winston

Good Luck!!