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Whitey Breaks down today’s Belmont Card with a best bet and race of the day analysis.

Best Bet of the Day

Race 4

4 horse – Fluent in Sarcasm

Trainer does great first time on Turf while new in Barn.

Trainer hits at 41% when dropping into MDN claimer from MSW

Two starts back tried much tougher at GP outside of conditions and the jockey fell off.

First on turf back in 2019 made a decent showing in turf debut at Del Mar.

If he breaks well today he could be tough considering he is trying new York breds for first time and drops into maiden claimer.

Win bet 4

Take a shot with an exacta box with 2 medium shots in the mix

Ex box – 2-4-9

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Race of the Day – Race 8

This is a nice state bred allowance race.

Field Quality

The field looks to be a little below par for the level, with no clear standouts.

Main Contenders

10 Good Credence – 9-2

Had terrible trip in last vs tougher, with an unfortunate gate mishap. Draws outside post, which will give the jock some options. Switch to Johnny V helps.

7 – Officer Hutchy – 4-1

Very nice Linda Rice runner will be tough and could be the main beneficiary if a pace duel develops.

5 – Quality Stones – 8-1

Anytime this trainer scores with a first timer you have to assume the horse is a nice runner (because he rarely connects first out). Should be the main pace factor and could steal it on lead if unchallenged.

Other Contenders to hit board

9 – Behind the Couch – 5-2

Likely race favorite has tons of talent but is coming off an extended 8 month layoff. Long layoffs is not in this trainers wheelhouse as he only hits at 10%. Still, must be respected, and if he is fit, he will be tough.

3 – Bustin Scones – 15-1

Should benefit from a return to Belmont and will be closing late.

6 – Wailin Josie – 10-1

This horse really likes Belmont and the field she beat in her last Belmont score was pretty good, as some of the runners cam back to score multiple times since. Would also benefit from fast pace.

How the Race Could Set up

The 1 and 5 are the speed of the race. They both had great pace figs in debut wins and both could be scrambling for lead.

The 2 and 9 also have speed but should be just off the pace.

Overall, pace should be honest as there are a few layoff horses in here which could add to the early pace (fresh horses often show early speed)

Good Credence has the advantage of the outside post to see what kind of pace develops.

She could stalk in 2^nd flight to the outside of the 9 and try to pounce on the two leaders turning for home,  getting first jump on the closers.

The 7 will be running late and could be the main contender to try and run down Credence late.

Could be photo finish between 7 and Good Credence with the 5 not far behind in game effort.

I see it as:

1 – 10 Good Credence

2 – 7 Officer Hutchy

3 – 5 Quality Stones

4 – 9, 3 or 6