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An unconventional Belmont Stakes is on tap today….no fans, new distance, and it will be the first leg of the Triple Crown.

These changes most likely mean that we will have to change our approach regarding handicapping, as the normal patterns and form indicators from the TC Trail, won’t be in play. To me, it feels like the Wood Memorial, a key Derby prep.

Most would likely agree on 2 Things:

1 – This is a well below average field with many unproven horses, that seem a notch below the star- studded names we lost on the TC trail like Nadal, Charlatan and Maxfield.

2 – Tiz the Law looks tough to beat, and he will go off well below the ML odds of 6-5. Probably 4-5 is more like it.

But, like any race with a heavy favorite, we will look for value, and opportunities to beat the heavy favorite.

Here is how I see the field:

1 – Tap it to Win – 6-1 – Will be the likely 2^nd choice at 4-1 or 9-2 off his last performance. While this looks like a step up in class, and sure it is, I really liked his win against a tough field in the recent Belmont Allowance. Johnny V sat chilly on the horse the whole race other than some light encouragement in the lane. The presence of newcomer Fore Left, the only other speed, doesn’t help, but if he can work out a trip, he is a main player here. If good enough, he could spring the upset.

2 – Sole Volante – 9-2 – Got the perfect set up in last at GP where the speed duel burned out the front runners. This guy was my early season Derby sleeper as I think he has tons of talent. To me, there are a couple things working against him as I think he needs pace help upfront to launch his closing rally. He might not get it today. In addition, I think coming into this race off a short rest is not a winning Belmont angle, the connections may have been best served waiting for the Haskell, instead of rushing him into this. Love the horse, just don’t like the situation today, and he will likely be over bet off a somewhat deceiving set up win. Tabbing for the derby, but today, most likely could clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th.

3 – Max Player – 15-1 – Most will question the long layoff coming into this, but I do think this horse needed some time to mature, based on the trainer’s comments. When I watched the replay of the Withers, I saw a grinder, which is always a good attribute in the Belmont Stakes. Overall, this guy is a sneaky sleeper as often 3 YOs can improve leaps and bounds over the spring season, and the trainer is more than capable.  Live longshot to include underneath.

4- Modernist – 15-1 – Has tactical speed which may be an advantage but just not sure about how much talent he has, considering the connections were pondering the Ohio Derby a few weeks ago.

5 – Farmington Road – 15-1 – Pletcher’s other runner will need a fast pace to make a late run. I do think his last in the ARK Derby was better than it looked, and I think there is some talent in tow. Jockey and Trainer have teamed up in the Belmont to make some noise with some longshots – Stay Thirsty in 2011, Commissioner in 2014, and Destin in 2016 – all came in 2^nd and 2 of them were greater than 25-1.  Use underneath.

6 – Fore Left – 30-1 – Will be a pace factor but it would be a stretch to think he might be around late. Look for him to set the pace and try to wing it on lead.

7 – Jungle Runner – 50-1 – Anytime I see a horse who doesn’t belong, and the trainer has another horse in the race, there is only one work that comes to mind — SHENANIGANS !!!! We all remember the BS Baffert pulled back in 2018 with entering a no-chance longshot Restoring Hope as a Blocker for his TC horse, Justify. Could this guy be in here to apply pressure on Tiz the Law to set it up for the Trainers other guy – Pneumatic?

8 – Tiz the Law – 6-5 – Likely odds here will be lower on this deserving favorite. He has an ideal post and should get the stalk and pounce trip he desires. If you are looking for chinks in the armor, perhaps you have to question the level of talent he faced in Florida. To me, he didn’t beat much while earning those stellar speed figs. While he gets more of the same slog of mediocrity today in this field, he is a play against down the road as we start looking at the Derby. Still, he towers over this field and is the most likely winner, but at 4-5 and as a value capper, I will look elsewhere to generate a profit and hope he is good, but not good enough. Must use in all exotics.

9 – Dr. Post – 5-1 – Pletcher’s main contender looks great on paper but I don’t think he beat much in Florida and was aided by the fast pace. The connections would be wise to put this one on the turf as he has outstanding breeding on both sides and he definitely has the talent. Today, I have to take a stand against and pass on him for inclusion. You can’t play them all, and taking a stand worked out well last year, as I excluded Improbable in last year’s Preakness and War of Will in the Belmont after cashing a big ticket on him in the Preakness.

10 – Pneumatic – Probably the wise guy horse as he is lightly raced and has talent. Should get a nice trip from the outside and can stalk the favorite.  I do think his last was decent as the inside wasn’t the place to be at Churchill that day in the Matt Winn. Definitely a wildcard to use, as his best would fit with this mediocre group.

So, Who Wins?

Assuming Tap it to Win doesn’t get caught in some kind of duel, I only see two scenarios:

Tap it To Win and Tiz the Law engage in a stretch long battle in a close finish. Or, Tiz the Law blows by Tap it to Win at the top of the stretch and some others clunk up for the minors. I am banking on the former and hoping Tap it To Win can hold on for the victory.

The only other scenario I see is a horse jumps way up and surprises. Most likely, that could be Max Player or Pneumatic.

How Does the Race Set up?

6 horse sets the pace. 1 horse stalks in 2^nd and hopefully flanked to his outside. Pace will be honest but not fast, remember it’s a one turn race so the early fractions will be faster than the normal two turn variety – possible 46 and change for the half and 110 and change for three-quarters. Around the Turn, look for the 1 and 8 to make their moves with the 1 leading into the lane. Big battle down the stretch with the 1 holding off the 8 in a close finish. 8 lengths back you will see some clunkers coming up for 3^rd and 4^th, primarily, Max Player, Farmington Road, Sole Volante.

Whiteys Win Contenders and Top 2

1 – Tap it to Win – If Johnny V can work out the desired trip, he has the talent to contend in this year’s weak Belmont. Unfortunately, 6-1 ML will not be in the cards and 4-1 is more likely.

8 – Tiz the Law – Deserving favorite should get the trip and may have to deal with Tap it To Win late. Horse really hasn’t been in a tussle and tends to drift in the lane. And, because of this, I lean towards the one horse, and the much better price, for the win.

Live “Hit the Board” Contenders (in order of preference)

3 – Max Player – I really like this guy to hit the board and may even be worth a win saver. He is a fresh face in an average field who has had time to develop. I like that he was based at Belmont the last few months and the connections were wise to pass on the alure of the ARK Derby and wait it out. Only possible knock is the post as when you look at the replays, he wanted the outside and may not like the kick back that he might get today.

5 – Farmington Road – Just get the feeling he is sitting on a nice one-run close today to possibly hit the board. The talent is there, and I like the connections in this contest. A fast pace would help but regardless, I will definitely be playing underneath.

10 – Pneumatic – Wildcard of the group especially if he takes to the Belmont surface. I really like the outside post for this guy as I get the feeling the rail was not ideal for him in his last. Will likely track outside the 8 and will try a similar stalk and pounce tactic. Including underneath more of a defensive play, as I think he is eligible to improve with a better post, and better trip.

2 – Sole Valante – Love the talent but not sure today is the day for his one run style, coming back on short rest on a new track. May clunk up for 4^th.

Suggestions for Playing (AKA Wagering)

Risk Averse guys may just want to go with a win bet on 1 and an exacta box 1-8.

Nothing wrong with this approach. Exacta won’t pay much but I think this combo is the most likely.

I also like some tri Keys:

1 with 8 with 3-5-10 (will likely hammer this)

1 with 3-5-8-10 with 3-5-8-10 (for a dollar – costs 12)

Maybe a tri box – 1-3-8 in case the 3 surprises

I might cover myself in a super with Tiz up top

SUPER

8 with 1 with 3-5- with 3-5-2-10 – $2 will cost you 12 (but you can do for a dollar and spend 6)

This could pay a few hundred bucks and help eke out a small profit.

Small win saver bet on 3 (what the heck)

Good Luck in the Belmont !!!

Whitey