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Welcome to Ponycapper’s analysis of the 2020 Derby !!!

The 2020 Derby trail has been turned upside down due to the scheduling changes….but has had predictable results in the preps, led by Tiz the Law emerging as the clear and overwhelming favorite.

Will chaos reign supreme in this years Derby?

Or, Will the biggest Derby Favorite in 28 years run away with it and crush cappers looking to make a few bucks?

My quick takes:

1. The worst derby field in a generation tries to upset a powerhouse. Many of these horses don’t belong in the race and are just taking a shot. Some haven’t even won two races yet.
2. If Tiz the Law brings his “A” game its lights out and game over.
3. To me, there is only one horse with a legitimate chance to beat him and that would be Honor AP
4. The defection of Art Collector and King Guillermo impacts the pace and will hurt the one run closers
5. We can make money in the race with some luck getting our longshots to hit the board…stay tuned
6. Watch for Bridge jumpers !!! With an overwhelming favorite the big money might come on TIz the Law to Show. That is to come in first, second or third. Could be an opportunity for big show price payouts if he finishes out off the board. Bridge jumpers are crazy cats who look to earn a quick 5% ROI on a so called lock to hit the board. What these dopes don’t realize is that if they lose the bet, they need to be right the next 20 times in a row just to break even. I am quite sure there will be several million dollar show bets looking to pick up a quick 50K. Sounds like easy money on paper….until….you know…they jump off the bridge.

Lets look at the field, identify contenders, analyze the Pace and make some final predictions.

1. Finnick the Fierce: Looks to be over-matched on form. Another negative is that he has no right eye, which means he is unable to see all horses to his outside. That would be 17 others. So he drew the worst post.

2. Max Player: Changed barns recently which could be a plus. He is your classic clunker for a share horse based on what I witnessed in his last 2 races. Post is no help. Unless he can show a new dimension and show gate speed, he will be shuffled too far back to make a run for the win. Chance for a minor award on best effort.

3. Enforceable: Son of Tapit hasn’t done much to inspire confidence coming into this race. May be too far back early and his speed figures in his last few do not make him a prime contender. Will be running late and will need super swift pace just to hit the board.

4. Storm the Court: : He wore the number 4 silks when he shocked the world in the BC JUV at 45-1, but he hasn’t done much since that monster effort. Two back, hooked a very soft Ohio Derby and could only muster 3^rd. Would be a big surprise but the late scratches of the speed horses help his chances.

5. Major Fed: Has had gate issues with breaking slow in a few races which could hurt him in a large field such as the derby. The post draw will help him as he has been caught wide in his last 4 races. While he looks average on paper, I think there is some talent here and I also like the way he has been working over the track. Contender to hit board at a big price.

6. King Guillermo:  SCRATCHED Consider in the Preakness

7. Money Moves: It is hard to know what to make of this son of Candy Ride, as he was a late entrant by the Trainer. You have to think the connections are just hoping to pick up a check. Has never raced in a stakes race and looks over-matched on paper. However, he is a fresh face in a field of donkeys so maybe he surprises to hit the board.

8. South Bend: A stone cold closer that might have a chance to clunk up for 4^th in a complete pace melt down scenario. Like many in here, appears over-matched.

9. Mr. Big News: With a wet track and fast pace, he might have a shot to get up for minor awards, but on fast track he has proven too slow to make an impact here. Another late entrant that was planning to run on the turf until connections changed their minds.

10. Thousand Words: The winner of the Shared Belief Stakes in his last outing will be looking to be involved in the early pace and may get a trip. I just don’t think he is good enough and may be overbet based on the trainer.

11. Necker Island: Very light on speed figs but does have 2 wins over the track. Struggled vs lesser and a must toss here.

12. Sole Volante: One-run closer is the main casualty of the late defection of Art Collector. He needed a hot pace and likely won’t get one today unless something crazy happens. Still, this one is interesting and can definitely hit the board as the front runners tire late.

13. Attachment Rate: Seems to run the same race which won’t be good enough here. Nice horse though, that’s been thrown in over his head as a 3yo.

14. Winning Impression: Likely will go off as the longest shot on the board and is eligible for non winners 2 lifetime. Trainer has been known to run in the money at long odds.

15. NY Traffic: This one likes to be a part of the pace early on, and has options from the outside post. Jock will send and will be the likely pacesetter. The defection of Art collector was a dream scenario. Question of pedigree is in play with this guy, as he sports the highest dosage number in the field. If uncontested on the lead, may hang around for a share.

16. Honor A. P.: Connections Teamed up in 2005 with a longshot derby win. This horse is the main threat to the race favorite Tiz the Law. Outside post will help and can stalk the leaders from the catbird seat. Distance pedigree is great. Based on some comments about his 2^nd place finish in last, I don’t believe he was fully cranked. Lots to like and fits the profile of a derby winner.

17. Tiz the Law: Deserving favorite has done nothing wrong coming into this race. The only two knocks I can throw out there is that his only loss was at CD, and he has never really been in a dog fight in the stretch. The latter is no fault of his own but at 3-5, I can’t endorse a win wager in a 18 horse field. Use underneath and hope he doesn’t bring his
“A” game.

18. Authentic: Before the draw, he was the speed of the speed. Now, he is really going to have to work to cross over and get the lead. There is a chance he’ll use the post to lay just off the leaders, especially since there are so many speed/presser types in here. Based on his tiring effort in the Haskell, not sure the extra distance will help.

Pace Projection

The pace scenario appears to be moderate as two of the main speed horses were scratched. Stalkers and mid pack horses will likely have the advantage. Dead closers are up against it today unless someone decides to juice the pace or a multi-horse duel develops. I am firm believer that the defection of Art Collector has serious pace consequences and I don’t see things getting out of control early in the race. The likely winner will come from a pack of horses that are 2 to 7 lengths off the lead at the half mile pole.

Predictions – Official Order of Finish

1 – (16) Honor AP – 5-1

2 – (17) Tiz The Law – 3-5

3 – (5) Major Fed – 50-1

4 – (12) Sole Volante – 30-1

Honor AP is poised to take a step forward off his last race and the extra distance will help. Gets big money rider Mike Smith and likely can stalk the leaders and pounce when ready. The horse has a ton of talent and there is lots to like about the way he comes into the race. I would have liked him ship about a week or so earlier but who am I to question the training plan leading into the race. Overall, if there is one horse that can spoil the favorites place in history, it is this well bred Honor Code colt.

Tiz the Law has destroyed the competition in the prep races and has one each race in easy fashion. This is the one area I am concerned about and the questions that may loom should he be tested down the lane. Overall though, its really hard to toss this guy off your tickets considering his impressive wins and speed figs.  Trip will be key and Manny Franco must be cognizant of not getting hung wide in the first turn. The NY bred has captured the hearts of the racing community coming into today and a Derby win, and the legit prospects of another Triple Crown winner, would only solidify the love.

Major Fed has a legit chance to make some noise based on some reviews of race replays. The trips have been awful in the last few and I think with a better break and an inside trip, he has every right to improve. Been training lights out at CD and the pedigree is there to relish the extra distance today. The key for him is that he has to be more forwardly placed early in the race, so a sharp break is key. If so, he can tuck right behind Storm the Court and get a rail – saving inside trip. Lets hope for a clean break and a better trip.

Sole Volante is coming off a dreadful Belmont Stakes but he had some excuses that day as he washed out before the race and the trainer really screwed up by wheeling him back in 10 days. This horse has tons of talent and its unfortunate that he likely won’t get the pace scenario he needs to hit the winners circle. Still, he is a must use underneath and will be rolling down the lane with a legitimate shot to hit the board. Sometimes the most lucrative trifecta’s that are hit include drawing a line through the last race and that’s what we are doing here and including a horse with a ton of talent.

Pilot to Bombardier (longshot to include) – Storm the Court (4 horse)

Having had some recent success with calling longshots to hit the board in the derby, we will take another stab at it with 50-1 shot Storm the Court.  This is a trip handicapping play as a few of the speed horses have been scratched and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is on the lead or just off it and tucked on the rail, saving all of the ground. There are no speed horses inside or outside of him so he should have no problem getting the nice early position. If the pace is slow I can see him hanging around late for a share, after making a move on the turn. How cool would it be for him to win both the BC JUV and the Derby at odds over 45-1 both times !!! Only 2 other horses have swept this prestigious double – Street Sense and Nyquist.

Wagering —  $88 budget

Given we have a 3-5 shot in the field, there could be an opportunity for a decent score if we accept more risk by playing the trifecta and superfecta. Coupled with a nice win bet, there is value as, unlike in most years where the derby is a complete crapshoot, there is proven form and a couple of standouts that could anchor an economical ticket.

$40 Win bet – Honor AP

$2 Ex box – 5-12-16 = $12

$1 Trifecta Key with Honor AP keyed up top:

16 with 4-5-12-17 with 4-5-12-17 = $12

$1 Superfecta with Tiz the Law keyed up top:

17 with 4-5-12-16 with 4-5-12-16 with 4-5-12-16 = $24

Best of luck to all !!!

Whitey