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Churchill Downs picks for Friday APR 30

Grid

• Strong Opinion means bet big
• Moderate Opinion means average size bet
• Slight Opinion – Small bet
• No Opinion – Consider horses you like as I don’t have a strong opinion so tread lightly.

Race 1 – No Opinion

• Consider the 3 horse as she has a win over the Churchill track and had a bad start in last.
• The 6 has an outside chance as the trainer does well with this jockey and may improve with a turn back in distance/

Race 2 – Slight Opinion

• Consider the 2 horse at decent odds. He faced tougher at gulfstream and shows early zip in a race lacking pace.
• The 6 adds blinkers and should be running late.
  • I like an exacta box here 2-6
  • Small win bet 2 horse
  • Trifecta key 6 with 2-7 with all
    • Say it like this at window
  • Two dollar trifecta 6 with 2-7 with all

Race 3 – Moderate Opinion

• With plenty of pace signed on, it could set up for a closer.
• I like the 7 horse as he had a nice maiden breaking win at the track and could get the ideal set up.
• The 5 horse will be dangerous but will likely be overbet because of the trainer. Also gets nice pace set up.
• The 2 horse will be closing late and has 3 2^nd place finishes at this track.
  • Win bet 7
  • Exacta box 5-7
  • Tri  box 2-5-7
  • Tri key 7 with 2-5-6

Race 4 – No Opinion

Race 5 – Moderate Opinion

• The 1 is the class of the field and likely gets best trip on the rail tucked behind the speed horses. Worth small win bet.
• The 8 is my longshot to hit the board.
• The 10 is another classy runner and should get the set up needed
• Small tri box 1-8-10

Race 6 – Slight Opinion

The 6 is the best horse but also like the 5 to run well.

Ex box 5-6

Race 7 – Not worth betting much

• 6 looks too tough to beat.
  • Go Exacta box 5-6
  • Trifecta Key – 6 with 5 with 3-7

Race 8 – Strong Opinion – Lock of the day

• The 5 horse will get a dream trip here with all of the speed signed on.
  • Big win bet on 5.

Race 9 – Strong Opinion

• The 6 horse has the versatility to stalk off a hot pace and has the talent to win. He is my value play of the day based on ML odds.
• The 9 horse will be rolling late and is a great play underneath to get up for 2^nd or 3^rd.
• 5 is the horse most likely to make the lead early and could be dangerous if unchallenged
• 10 horse is the class of field but is vulnerable coming off layoff
  • Big Win bet 6
  • Small win bet on 9
  • EX box 6-9
  • Ex box 5-6-9
  • Tri box 5-6-9
  • Tri Key 6 with 5-9-10

Race 10

• The 3 is the speed of the race and could go wire to wire
• The 8 is the best closer and will be rolling late
• The 9 has an outside chance to play spoiler
  • Win bet 3
  • Ex box 3-8
  • Tri box 3-8-9

Race 11 – OAKS

• Defection of the 7 means the pace will be slower and benefits the front runners. On paper looks pretty chalky and not much money to be made.
• I will make the 6 my top pick as he could be the pace setter and has some nice races including 2 wins at the track.
• The 10 is undefeated and likely favorite. Might be tough to beat.
  • Suggest a big exacta box with these two to create value. 6-10 Ex box.
• My longshot to hit the board is the 14. Jockey switch is key and should be up near the pace.
• I also like the 3 to run big though she may not get the pace she needs.
  • Recommend a $1 tri key
  • 6-10 with 3-6-10-14 with 3-6-10-14
  • $1 Superfecta 6 with 10 with 3-14 with all
    • Should cost around 20 bucks

Good Luck