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Welcome to the 2021 Derby !!

Look for a fast track with bright sunshine, which will be a nice change from recent history.

Lets get straight to the analysis….

The pace of the race should be contested and fast. There are at least 5 runners who want to be on or near the lead. This means I am going to favor the stalkers, mid-packers and closers over the front runners.

I am looking for Rock Your World to be the speed of the speed with Soup and Sandwich a neck off it. Most of the speed is drawn to the outside which increases the need to cross and clear the field increasing the chances for a quick opening quarter.

On paper, it looks like a pretty deep field and the betting will be evenly dispersed for the 5 through 15 contenders. Most people could probably make a legitimate case for about 10 horses in the win slot. I would differ on that and reduce that number to 5 with a realistic chance. Of the 5 with a chance, there are 2 that I like the best and stand out from the rest of the win contenders and there is one outsider that could pull the upset.

Lets get right to the picks:

Whitey’s Top 2

Number 1 – Known Agenda – 6-1.

I am expecting better value come post time, perhaps more like 8 or 9-1, mainly due to the post draw. I will throw cold water on the rail post non-sense. While its not ideal, its definitely not a reason to toss a horse – which some people do. Of note, this will be the 2^nd year where only 1 starting gate will be used – they had the AUX gate before – and with the new configuration they moved the rail post over to the right approximately 12 feet. This helps the one post, or I should say, doesn’t hinder him as it may have done in the past. I really liked the effort in the Florida Derby and I would expect a similar mid pack trip today. He is undefeated since adding the blinkers, and this son of Curlin should have no problem with the Derby distance. Most people familiar with my capping style know that I put a premium on talent and trips. The talent is definitely there as the FLA derby showed. And, I think he gets a GREAT trip. Why? Well, for one, the 4 horses to his right are closers so he should have no problem getting a forward position along the rail and saving all of the ground heading into the first turn. In addition, he has tactical speed which means he can be close to the pace if its slow up front, tucked behind the leaders, or say mid-pack, which is where I expect him, due to the fast pace up top. I also like the fact that this horse has experience racing on the rail and inside behind other horses. You cant say that about all of the horses in the race. Overall, the trip is key. In fact, for him, the race will be won or lost in the first quarter mile because if by chance he breaks slow or gets shuffled back early, and doesn’t secure that early mid pack position and finds himself say near the back of the pack on the first turn, it would likely be a disaster. He needs to get out of the gate and establish that rail position behind the pace horses yet in front of the closers. Mid pack position is key in the first turn. Turning to his FLA derby, he got a great speed fig of 112 (EQ) and overall I though the race was stronger than it looked on paper. In summary, lots to like…top class trainer in Pletcher, a top 5 jockey in Irad Ortiz, the talent level and big speed fig in the FLA derby, the blinkers light bulb angle, tactical speed to get early position, the breeding for the distance, on both sides of the family, and I think the post is a plus, putting him mid-pack along the rail, saving ground on the first turn. All we need to hope that he finds some room to pass the tiring front runners turning for home. If he can, and with some racing luck, a derby win is highly plausible.

Number 14 – Essential Quality – 3-1.

He is the horse to beat hands down, and the most likely winner. The key is to have a strategy to make some cash in the exotics with him up top. Undefeated horse is the class of the field and showed a lot in gutting out a win in the Blue Grass. Heading into the Derby there is now a “Battle Tested” check mark next to his name. Trip-wise, the speed is to his outside, so he would be best to let them clear, and then lay in 2^nd flight to the outside heading into the first turn. Look for him to make his move on the final turn and I expect him to photo with Known agenda for the win, with the 3^rd place fininsher at least 4 lengths back.

Outsider with a Chance to win, but more likely to hit board:

Number 16 – King Fury – 20-1

Has the foundation I like to see for the derby having raced 5 times as a 2YO, and I thought he had an excuse in the Juvenille. He came back in his 3 yo debut in the Lexington with blinkers off and benefited from a wicked pace and the slop. Some might discount the win as “slop aided” but I am taking a contrarian view and including this live longshot in all of my exotics. Breeding for the distance is great, and has 2 wins over the Churchill track. Trainer only comes to the party when he knows he has a chance, and I like the positive comments from him, who is usually reserved, cautious, and muted when it comes to his horses. If he can work out a trip, and if the expected fast pace develops, I think he could be rolling late, and hit the board at a nice price.

So, my top three, and predicted order of finish:

1 – Known Agenda

14 – Essential Quality

16 – King Fury

Now, lets address two other topics:

• Other Contenders who could hit the board – who I am with, and who I am against
• Other disaster pace scenarios

Superfecta Spoilers — Contenders and Longshots I am including Underneath:

2 of the longest shots in the field will be Hidden Stash and Sainthood. I will be playing both underneath in my exotics. Why?

13 – Hidden Stash – I know he doesn’t stack up well in the figures department, so this is more of a hunch play, based on breeding and trip. He is by constitution, a son of tapit and has stamina on dam side too. The fast pace will work in his favor and I expect him to be rolling late. I am tossing his last race, as he was pace compromised. The races at Tampa fit and if he can show any kind of improvement, a chance to hit the board at a long price is possible.

5 – Sainthood – I kind of get the feeling this might be a Belmont Stakes prep for the connections but still, I really liked the way he closed late on the synthetic in his last start. His trip was terrible that day getting shut off in the lane. He could have easily packed it in but instead rallied to take the place spot. The Jockey is a big positive here as he will be glued to the rail and looking to conjure memories of Calvin Borel oabard derby longshot winner, Mind That Bird. If he had one or two more races under his belt I would feel better about his chances but who knows, he could be a super-spoiler, blowing up the toteboard in 3^rd or 4^th at a huge price.

Contender I will also use:

9 -Hot Rod Charlie – Should be forwardly placed and might get the cat bird trip, making first run on the leaders turning for home.

Contenders that I fear, but didn’t make the cut….

The most polarizing horse in the race is…

15 – Rock Your World. He either wins wire to wire or finishes way up the track – nothing in-between. He is dangerous if left alone on the lead and you could envision a repeat version of the Santa Anita Derby victory. This is the disaster pace scenario I fear the most, and it might have about a 20% chance of happening.

Other Contenders with a chance but I will be against are:

Highly Motivated and The Baffert Runner Medina Spirit. Both will be overbet and for that alone, they won’t have my money. I do think Highly Motivated may be distance challenged, and the Baffert Runner is below par as a typical derby baffert runner. Of the 2 I fear more, it would be Highly Motivated.

Horses I am afraid of…

Helium and Mandaloun. Helium lacks seasoning but has talent. Mandaloun flopped in last but its almost too bad to be believed. He is getting buzz in the morning at Churchill, but will be another that gets over bet. Some sharp cappers do like Mandaloun, but also I think dumb money is climbing aboard too, based on the derby buzz.

Wagering Strategy

How do we spend 114 bucks??

Let’s keep it Simple:

• $40 Win bet on Known Agenda
• $10 Saver win bet on King Fury
• $10 Exacta box Known Agenda, Essential Quality = $20
• $2 Exacta box Known Agenda, Essential Quality, King Fury= $12
• $2 Tri Box – same three = $12
• $1 Tri Key Essential Quality over 5 horses – Known Agenda, King Fury, Hidden Stash, Sainthood, and Hot Rod Charlie = $20 (So 14 with 1-16-13-5-9)

Good Luck !!

Whitey