Capper's Corner

Jump to Comments

Below is my analysis of the 2021 Preakness…

At first glance, it looks like one of the weakest Preakness fields in the last 30 years, as there are only 3 derby horses wheeling-back in 2 weeks, and a well below average menu of new shooters.

The main reason the field is decimated is the view by most trainers that two weeks is too short to come back after a taxing derby run and the connections have bigger races in mind down the road.

The pace looks to be slow as the two confirmed front runners are both trained by the same trainer so its doubtful they would go after each other. The wildcard is midnight bourbon and what the jock decides to do.

Here is a quick break down of the field:

1 – Ram – 30-1 – Lukas runner coming off 2 win streak but faces class hurdle today.

2 – Keepmeinmind – 20-1 –  Rallied from last to close a decent 7^th in derby but will be pace-challenged today, and likely won’t get the set up needed to be a win contender

3 – Medina Spirit – 9-5 – Got dream trip in derby and will likely be the pace setter again today.

4 – Crowded Trade – 10-1 – Can improve off middle move in Wood Memorial race. Fresh face in weak field always dangerous. Must improve tactics in lane to have a chance.

5 – Midnight Bourbon – 5-1 – Likely to be wise guy horse off dreadful trip in derby, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes off as a co-favorite. Not sure he has the talent but his pace presence will be key in determining race shape and outcome.

6 – Rombauer – 12-1 – Ran an even 3^rd in Blue Grass and I guess is eligible to improve. Just not sure he is good enough and will be pace compromised.

7- France Go de Ina – 20-1 – Missed break in UAE. Fresh face likely prepping for big bonus at Belmont. But, has tactical speed and should be able to sit the trip if good enough.

8 – Unbridled Honor – 15-1 – Look for jock to have him more forwardly placed but seems to be cut below these, especially without Lasix.

9 – Risk Taking – 15-1 – Kind of a wildcard but would need to improve significantly after dud in the Wood. Outside chance to hit board.

10 – Concert Tour – 5-2 – Jock in a tough spot as he needs the lead to be effective but he doesn’t want to screw up a triple crown bid of the stable mate. Mixed feelings.

Breakdown and Picks

Over 30 years of capping horses leads me to one angle that consistently makes positive ROI….A fresh face in a field full of donkeys is usually the wise play and profitable in the long term. It works in maiden races and stakes races on the triple crown trail. When you look across the PP’s of this Preakness field, it really looks terrible. Many horses are eligible for 2^nd level allowance races and the speed figs are extremely light for the main contenders.

Both of Baffert horses need the lead to be effective and who knows which will be on the lead. But, both are under strict testing and the juice won’t be in play today to help this crooked trainer. Of the two, I probably prefer the 10 horse because he is the fresher horse, but I have no confidence in either, so I am tossing them both. Baffert had the BE Susan favorite today and he was a total flop (coincidence)?

The 5 Midnight Bourbon is getting lots of attention and don’t be surprised if he goes off the favorite. Wise guys are pointing to the bad trip in the derby but my problem with him is I didn’t like him coming into the derby on talent, and his running lines don’t scream versatility.

So, I will hone in on two fresh faces that offer some value.

4 Horse – Crowded Trade – I think he gets the trip of trips from the inside perhaps in 2^nd flight. He has more speed than the 2 and 1 horse so he should beat them to the rail and draft behind the leaders. I liked the middle move he made in the Wood, and even though that was not a strong field, I think he is eligible to improve for the same trainer who brought in a Preakness long shot a few years ago. Perhaps he gets the same trip that Black Eyed Susan winner Army Wife got on the golden rail? Crowded Trade is well rested and represents a fresh face to upset the apple cart of mediocrity in this year’s Preakness.

7 Horse – France Go de Ina – Talk about a fresh face? This guy is shipping from Japan and is pointed to the Belmont for the 1.5 Million bonus. I did watch the replays of all this guys races and was impressed enough to think that he may have a chance today. Last in UAE was a toss as he broke slow but if he can get out of the gate and get the stalking trip, I have a feeling he might have the talent to stick around with this average group of foes. I also like that he draws a top Jock in Rosario. All in all, this is not a default pick or hunch play. Based on the replays I watched, the good breeding, and projected running style, I believe you are looking at a live longshot that might be hanging around late to hit the board.

Rounding out the TRI and SUPER:

2 – Keepmeinmind – I thought the Derby finish was admirable, closing into a slow pace, while making a wide run. What does it mean in the Preakness? An outside chance he could clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th,  while the front runners collapse late. Inside post helps and a better trip today gives this one a punchers chance to rally late and blow up the tri or super.

10 – Concert Tour – Probably the Baffert horse I fear of the two and throwing in defensively in exotics.

Predicted order of finish:

4

7

2

10

Wagering

Big Win Bet – 4 Horse

Small Win Bet – 7 Horse

Ex box – 4-7

Tri Key – 4 with 2-7-10 with 2-7-10

Super box – 2-4-7-10

Good Luck !!

Whitey