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Welcome to the 2021 Belmont !!

Here is what we know coming into this year’s race….

1 – Bob Baffert is a thief, and his horse Medina Spirit is about to be DQ’d from a derby win – Note, this is the same guy that sent out Restoring Hope, a longshot with no chance in the 2018 Belmont, to be a lead blocker for Justify in the early stages of the race, so his chances would improve to win the Triple Crown. I would love for the racing jurisdictions to subpoena his text and email records to prove that Restoring Hope was a hopeless donkey who’s only purpose was to box out the competition and keep them off Justify.

2 – The Preakness was one of the weakest fields ever. A total fraud of a race.

3 – And….this year’s Belmont has a number of horses who skipped the Preakness, and are trying to make amends for Derby flops.

Contrary to what some folks might be thinking about the small field and lack of betting opportunities, I think this year’s Belmont is intriguing, somewhat competitive, and offers a chance to pocket some coin with a decisive betting strategy.

So, lets get to the analysis and picks….

Overall, I believe there are only 3 runners with a legit chance to win this….

1 – Essential Quality – The Derby FAV was wide the whole way and was compromised by a track favoring speed. He is the deserving favorite today and will likely dip below the ML odds of 2-1 and go off at 8-5.

2 – Known Agenda – Got one of the worst rides I have ever seen by a jockey in the derby. He had every chance to secure early position and instead got shuffled to the back of the pack, losing all chance. Has the talent to be a contender today and his trainer has had success doing the Derby – Belmont shuffle.

3 – Rock Your World – Toss the Derby as his trip was terrible and he lost all chance at the start. He will be on the lead today, and left unchallenged, could be the one to catch.

The Pace of the Race Could shape up like this…

Rock Your World is the most likely pace setter but the outside post will give him options if Essential Quality or Hot Rod Charlie are intent in getting the lead. I see Rock Your World as the pace setter and the fractions will be sensible. I see Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie stalking. There are some pace wildcards with the biggest being the outside horse Overtook. Could the connections look to press Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie to set it up for their barn-mate, Known Agenda? Possibly. The blinkers added on Overlook could also be a signal to astute players that this horse could be more forwardly placed than most would expect.

It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Hot Rod Charlie on the lead and Rock your world in stalking mode.

The bottom line is there will be no speed duel and the pace will be moderate to slow.

Picks and Analysis

Here is my top 4 and how I see the also- rans.

Top 4 – Predicted Order of Finish:

6 – Known Agenda – 6-1 – First things first. The off odds on this guy will be 4-1 or 9-2. Getting 6-1 is a pipe-dream. I have already addressed the dreadful trip in the derby and jockey indecision as the main culprit. Today, in my mind, he is the horse to beat and the most likely winner, outside of Essential Quality. Hence, I will make him my top pick. Known Agenda has the talent as evidenced by his impressive win in the Florida Derby. I also think his grinding running style works to his advantage, and his pedigree is one of the best in the field for the Belmont distance. A son of Curlin, and with many stamina influences on the dam side, he should relish the extra distance. Trip should be no problem in a less congested field, and he should be sitting mid-pack early and look to make his move turning for home. Overall, I think he is one of the most talented horses in the field, he has the pedigree for Belmont success, his trainer and homefield advantage give him an edge, and his running style as a grinder aids his chances to land in the winners circle.

2 – Essential Quality – 2-1 – No doubt the trainer will have this one primed for his best effort and coming into the Derby he really looked like a standout on figs. He is by Tapit who sired 3 of the last 6 Belmont winners and the distance shouldn’t be an issue. The post draw probably not ideal and its possible the rider will want to send early which could be a mistake, as he could get pressed from the outside. His best chance of winning would be a stalking trip and make first run turning for home and try to hold off any closers. He is a legit favorite and will be on all my tickets, but just not in the win bet category, due to lack of value.

7 – Rock Your World – 5-1 – If I am being honest, I really didn’t like his chances in the Derby, but today, pace circumstances should work in his favor. And, that alone makes him dangerous. Colt certainly has the talent and the distance pedigree on both sides is very solid. The key for him will likely be how the early part of the race shapes up pace-wise, and whether he gets loose on an uncontested lead. If he does, then there is a real possibility he wires the field. But, as a worse case, I definitely see him in the mix late and has a legitimate chance to save 3^rd and hit the board. If you liked him in the derby, you should run to the window and get the 5-1, as you get a jockey with a track record of success in this race, a favorable post draw giving the jock options, and the pedigree to get the distance. Live contender and should hit board at worst.

8 – Overtook – 20-1 – On paper, not much to endorse for this guy, but I’ll take a contrarian view based on watching some of his replays and in analyzing his pedigree for the Belmont distance. I see a horse who hasn’t lived up to his million dollar sales price, but will be given a chance to make amends for his lackluster career to date. Reading between the lines, the Peter Pan was nothing more than a prep coming off a 3 month layoff, and I liked the way he visually finished up, especially the gallop-out. The Distance pedigree is great by a son of Curlin by an A.P. Indy mare. Look for him to be more forwardly placed with the blinkers added, and a live chance to round out the trifecta or super at a huge price.

Also Rans:

3 – Rombauer – 3-1 – Odds will likely drift up because some will write off his Preakness victory. While the win was impressive, I question the terrible field and the wheel-back in 3 weeks. He got the perfect set up in a really weak field, and if you missed out at 11-1 that day, why would you take 3-1 today, with a possible regression in store? He is a nice horse and earned my respect, but all I can see for him is clunking up late for 3^rd and that is being generous as there is a greater likelihood that he will tire late coming off the short rest. Hence, he didn’t make my top 4 but I may use defensively underneath in some supers.

4 – Hot Rod Charlie – 7-2 – Here is my play against horse of the race. He had a decent trip in the derby despite what the trackman comments state. While the trainer may think he has the ability to get the distance, I say, not so fast. The dam side of the pedigree is questionable for the 1.5 miles as Indian Charlie was not a stayer and Smoke Glacken was a champion sprinter. If he beats me, I will tip my cap, but I can see a greater likelihood that this one calls it quits at the top of the stretch.

1 – Bourbonic – 15 -1 – Likely needs a pace collapse to have any chance to hit the board. The Wood was a race that collapsed and the final time slow. Perhaps clucks up for 4^th to reward super players.

5 – France Go De Ina – 30-1 – Longest shot on the board folded like a rented beach chair in the Preakness and looks to be overmatched today. For Japanese horse fans only.

Wagering

Here is how I will play it. Lets keep it simple.

Big win bet –  Known Agenda

Big Ex box – Known Agenda, Essential Quality

Small Ex box – Known Agenda, Rock Your World

Superfecta – Known Agenda/Essential Quality with Known Agenda/Essential Quality with Rock Your World and Overtook with ALL

So 2-6 with 2-6 with 7-8 with ALL

Deeper pocket players can add a super:

2 with 6 with 3-7-8 with 3-7-8 – $5 dollar super costs $30

Confidence level is fairly high…lets hope for the best…

Good Luck

Whitey