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A field of 9 is set to run in the 2022 Preakness, with post time at 7 PM.

The main story line I am following is one that probably is an after-thought for most cappers…and that is…. THE HEAT !!

With an expected high temperature of 96 degrees and real feel of 105 with the humidity, we may have another round of pari-mutuel chaos in the 2^nd leg of the Triple Crown.

The record high for Preakness day was 98 degrees set in 1962, when Greek Money won by a long nose at 9-1. Those who backed him that day had an extra sweat as they had to survive a frivolous objection by the runner up.

How will the near-record heat impact the race today?

No one knows for sure, but I would guess that the fresh horses might have an advantage, as well as the horses with a home base in Florida.

Let’s break down the race…

Race Favorite

In 2019, I predicted that the race favorite, Improbable, wouldn’t hit the board and I was correct. Am I predicting a similar fate for Epicenter?

YES !!!

But for a different reason. Improbable was a terrible favorite based on the figs and I thought the race coming back in 2 weeks was not ideal for him. For Epicenter, I think there are two scenarios:

• Scenario 1 – He is the real deal and a special horse. He circles horses on the trun and goes on to cruise to an easy 5 length win at even money over a pretty average Preakness field.
• Scenario 2 – He takes his run at the leaders on the turn and hits the proverbial wall, fininshing up the track.

While both are plausible and I would argue each has an equal chance of happening (which is a contrarian view to the public’s) I am leaning towards Scenario 2, and that’s how I am approaching this year’s race. If it happens, then we have a chance to make some cash. If not, we turn the page, and look to the Belmont.

Here is my rational for the Epicenter flop:

• I wasn’t enamored with him pre-derby, and believe he faced sub-par competition in the LA preps
• He got an absolute dream trip in the derby and couldn’t close the deal
• He is coming back in 2 weeks, which is something he has never done before – most of the rest between races has between 4 and 6 weeks
• This will mark the 6^th start this year
• And probably the most important reason, his derby run was extremely taxing as he was under a drive for most of the stretch
• Oh, and one more wildcard….the hot weather, which in combination to all the above, could spell disaster

Bottom line…if I was part of the ownership group I would be asking:

What the hell are we doing running in this race?

The more prudent approach would be to skip this one and point to the Belmont and Haskell with an eye towards the Travers. A flop here turns all that upside down and he will be lucky to make the Haskell.

My Top 2 Preakness Runners:

5 – Early Voting 7-2

The trainer Chad Brown was an under-study to hall of famer Bobby Frankel. The one thing Frankel did extremely well was pointing a horse to a specific race. I think Brown had this race picked out from the get-go and he was wise to pass on the derby. Early Voting is a lightly raced horse with only 3 career starts. He appears to be coming in fresh, as he is coming into this off a runner up placing in the Wood, which was 6 weeks ago. Early Voting has a ton of early speed and will be the likely pace-setter. I don’t see a whole lot of early speed in the race and its possible the pace may be soft. This would bode well for his chances to wire the field. Overall, there is tons of talent here, and I am a big believer in the ability of the trainer to have him set up for a big race. In 2017, he and the same ownership group (which is highly underrated) took Cloud Computing to the Preakness and they came away with the victory. With a ton of money expected to come in on the Filly, I can see the price drifting up and its possible the odds float up to 9-2 by post time, which would enhance the appeal.

2 – Creative Minister – 10-1

Here is another lightly raced horse with tons of talent. The connections ponied up 150K to supplement him for the race, which is a sign of confidence. His race on the derby undercard was pretty impressive,  and a step forward off that effort could land him in the exacta. I can see him saving ground and making one late run turning for home. The extra distance will suit him based on the stellar breeding. He may have the feel of a wise guy horse, but in this case, I think there is more merit then hype.

Best of the Rest

4 – Secret Oath – 9-2 –

Filly with lots of talent will garner support on race day and will likely go off as 2^nd choice. I did bet her in her win at CD in the Oaks and she got an absolute dream trip. I don’t blame the connections for taking on the boys as she likely fits with this mediocre crop of colts. For me, its not a question of talent, but more of circumstance, as this will be her 6^th race this year and I am not sure she is one of the fresher runners in today’s race. She is a must use in the exotics but way too short a price to trust up top given the uncertainties of a filly facing the boys and the quick turn-around.

8 – Epicenter – 6-5

Likely 4 to 5 or even money come post time. As I referenced above, he is very vulnerable in this spot and I probably wouldn’t bet him if he was 3-1. Would suggest using underneath but I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished out of the money.

9 – SkippyLongstocking – 20-1

Here is a flyer to include in your exotics. Is eligible to improve with the freshening since the Wood and he might be able to close for a slice of the exotics. The 3^rd place in the Wood was probably better than it looked as he was wide turning for home and had the look of a horse that needed the race. One extra bonus — His home base is Florida and is highly accustomed to the heat, which may give him an edge with the temps soaring near 100.

Here is how I will play it

• Win bet 5 horse
• Ex box – 2-5
• Tri Box – 2-4-5-9

Good Luck to all

My Full card Preakness analysis and selections are below….

Race 1

This is a wide open and great betting race…

There are two possible scenarios that are most likely to happen…

Scenario 1

• The 6 or the 8 spring out to the lead and never look back. The problem is both are a short price and may not be worth a win bet.
• The 8 may be cheap speed stepping up which is a little risky, and the 6 is piloted by Saez and will no doubt be gunning for the lead early.

Scenario 2

• In scenario 2, they both wear each other out and it sets it up for the closer.
• Who that closer will be is anyone’s guess but I lean towards the 1 horse to pick up the pieces in this scenario.
• They key for this horse is the trainer change and it’s a sign of confidence that he steps up in class.

So here is how I will play it:

• Win bet 1 horse
• Ex box 1-4
• And then I will do a TRI KEY to account for scenario 1 and play it like: 6-8 with 1-4 with 6-8-1-4-7

Race 2

Another wide open race but this one is an absolute crapshoot as the jocks might determine the outcome.

There is tons of speed signed on here so I am leaning toward a closer.

The speed parade includes the likes of:

The 1A (who might scratch), The 3 horse, The 5 horse, and the 8 horse

And we can probably toss the 9 horse who is stretching out from sprints, though this might be dangerous to do so.

So that leaves the 2, who looks to be the class of the field, but may be more of a one turn type and is unproven at Pimlico. He is first off claim for good trainer and lures Paco who has 2 wins in 3 chances with this trainer.

The 4 looks like a longshot and has done his best running vs state-bred company but lures the meets top Jock, who is white hot.

The 1 looks solid here and won the Tesio at the track last year but was DQ’d.

The 6 can close for a share and loves the Pimlico surface.

Here is how I will play it

• I will roll with the 2 horse in the win bet, as he already won at this condition already and is in for the tag for eligibility. Paco may get best trip saving ground from mid pack.
• And follow it up with an exacta box 1-2
• And Tri box 1-2-6

Race 3

If we can beat the favorite here then that would be nice. We will tread lightly as the favorite looks tough.

Nevertheless, these maiden turf races often produce prices and we will try and reel one in here.

The horse that interests me the most is the 8 Airspeed Velocity. In his debut sprinting he ran into a monster Clement runner who has since won 2 stakes races. In his next start he was bet at Keenland and had tons of trouble at the start. He has been training on woodchips and the trainer can have him ready today. The grass breeding is excellent.

The 4 horse is the favorite and is adding Lasix and stretching out. The other horses who may be worth looking at are the:

• 6 who is a Motion runner who is well bred for the turf and is coming off a layoff.
• And the 5 horse who draws Rosario and the trainer does well adding blinkers

Play it as:

• Win bet 8
• Ex box – 5-6-8
• Tri box 4-5-6-8

Race 4

Here is a fun race to handicap…and will make this one of my best bets of the day….

I am tossing the race favorite – the 4 horse – as I have seen this movie before. MDN race blowout win. Stakes race blow out win. Now steps up in class and will be facing horses way better than the previous races. I can’t back that kind of horse, especially as the race favorite.

The 6 and 7 both are interesting, but their prices are short and while I prefer the 7 slightly over the 6 and I am going in a different direction and hope for a speed duel.

I’m going to take a swing with the 2 with Jose Ortiz and hope the speed duel sets it up for him. He is coming off a grade 1 effort vs Jackie’s Warrior and the speed figs from previous races are among the tops in field. He checks all of the right boxes with class, running style and trip set up today and let’s hope he takes to the Pimlico surface.

Play it:

• Big Win bet 2
• Ex box 2-7
• TRI BOX – 2-4-7

Race 5

This is a terrible betting race so we will tread lightly…

On paper looks like a 2 horse race between the 2 and 4. The key to the race is that someone will have to go with the 4 early or its lights out.

I think the 2 has a legit chance to win at a short price.

My longshot to hit the board would be the 1 who encountered trouble in last and the trainer is firing on all cylinders.

Play it:

• Lets go win bet 2
• Ex box – 1-2
• Tri box 1-2-4

Race 6

Looks like a great betting race with a few price possibilities…

Many of these horses have limited turf starts.

The 11 is the likely favorite and has improved since taking off the blinkers. The post draw is not ideal.

The 7 may be overlooked somewhat coming off the layoff and beating MDN claimers in last. She really has a nice breeding for the turf.

The 4 horse has been a money burner at GP and will likely hit the board but won’t win

The 2 longshots with appeal are

• The 5 horse who might be better served in a STR allowance but I really like the breeding and he outran her odds on the Turf at GP
• I also like the 3 to run a big race at a big number. With any kind of pace, she can hit the board.

Overall not much pace in the race and a horse like the 5 may try and steal it on the lead. The 7 looks like a sneaky live horse here and may be worth using.

No real opinion here but will playing some combination of 7-5 up top

Maybe a TRI KEY

5-7 with 3-4-5-7-11 with 3-4-5-7-11

Race 7

This is a pass race for me as just about every horse has a chance.

Hit the all button if playing the pick 3 or sit this one out

Race 8

This is a terrible betting race and would likely just play the pick 3 with the 4 best horses:

3-6-4-1

Race 9

Tons of speed in this competitive sprint.

Has the makings of a race bound to fall apart late and a closer to take the money.

The 1,2,3,5, and 9 all have speed

The 1 and 5 look to be one dimensional speed types and will be among the favorites.

I’m against the 1 big in this one due to post draw and the speed to his outside may be a problem.

The 5 scares me a bit as looks like a freak. If left uncontested may wire the field.

We will plan for a contested pace and lets go with the scenario that none of the speed horses will be around late…

So I say Chuck em Out !!

The main danger to me is the 9 horse as he draws outside and has options to sit off the pace.

But the value play based on odds is the 8 horse who should be flying late.

I also like the 6 horse who can close late, and may be dangerous on cut back

Play it as:

• Win bet 9
• Ex box 8-9
• Ex box 6-8-9
• Tri box 5-6-8-9

Race 10

Another fun race to unravel…

There are a lot of horses stretching out and the pace is likely to be quick.

I am always leery of the young horses stretching out around 2 turns on turf and showing an ability to ration their speed.

I will take a flyer on the 4 horse. He checks a lot of boxes:

• Back class from 2 yo campaign
• Nice prep race off layoff
• Should get inside trip off the pace and can save ground
• The turf breeding is really nice – on the dam side (hidden) you have Red Ransom and Kingmambo to go along with strong pedigree with Malibu Moon and the sire side is strong too.

The 5 is the deserving favorite and might be tough to beat.

The 8 horse intrigues me a bit as he has nice turf breeding and ran into trouble only time on turf while bet.

The 10 horse is bred well and may get a stalking trip.

Play it as:

• Win bet 4
• Ex box 4-5-8
• Tri Box 4-5-8-10

Race 11

Not a big fan of this race as the ML oddsmaker did a good job as the 3 favorites look to be the most likely winner

The 8 horse would probably be my top pick of those 3

The 1 and 5 have a good chance and may prefer the 1 over the 5 due to two turb experience and the 5 coming off maiden win stretching out.

The longshot to throw in the mix is the 2 horse. Tons of talent and if he can get the trip he might be dangerous.

6 has punchers chance if the pace is hot. Lasix in last may have helped.

Play it as:

• Win bet 8
• TRI Key – 8 with 1-2-6-8
• Tri box – 1-2-6-8

Race 12

Not a great betting race so maybe you do some pick 3’s

The 2 and 3 are the most likely winners

Th 9 has a shot as well

Include 2-3-9 in pick 3’s