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The Belmont Field is all set for Saturday (6:49 post) and we will look to keep the momentum going off of a profitable Preakness.

Astute followers of this blog know that I have been capping the final jewel of the Triple Crown for a long time. And, if I am being honest, this year’s rendition looks like one of the easier and straight-forward selections in quite some time.

Let’s unpack that…

On the one hand, we have Todd Pletcher who comes into the Belmont with a stellar record (3 wins and many 2^nd place finishes) and with two aces up his sleeve:

• Mo Donegal is the likely race favorite, and winner of the Wood Memorial who was flattered when the Wood runner up came back to score in the Preakness. Mo has tons of talent and is my early pick to take down this year’s Breeders Cup Classic in NOV.
• Nest is a really nice filly, with a great Belmont profile, and who is 4 for 6 lifetime including a Grade 1 win, and has banked over 850K to date

On the other hand, we have:

• A very vulnerable ML favorite (We The People) who comes off an impressive win in the Peter Pan over a very suspect field, and which came over a wet sealed track, a condition he won’t see today.
• A derby winner, who is dubbed in many circles labeled as a fluke, and who got a dream trip to take the roses at 80 to 1.
• And then lastly, except for Creative Cause, the remaining runners look like a mediocre group (at best) who haven’t done much to date and are taking a swing hoping to hit the board and earning a decent check

Add it all up and my takeaway is….against this weak field, Todd Pletcher looks to have this race cornered with two superstars. Assuming we take the Pletcher plunge, and invest in his runners, then the $64,000 question becomes —- Will we be laughing and cashing our tickets like Billy Ray Valentine did when he cornered the Orange Juice market in the movie Trading Places, or will we be ripping up our tickets in agony, despair and disgust like Randolph and Mortimor Duke did on the trading floor?

Let’s hope it’s the former…

With all that out of the way, let’s get right into it with a quick snapshot of the field, and some initial commentary:

1 – We the People – 2-1: Peter Pan winner demolished a weak field and now is returning as the race favorite??? This horse is the biggest boom or bust candidate on the entire Belmont card. While many will be backing him, I say “not so fast”. Will probably be 2^nd choice in wagering come post time.

2 – Skippylongstocking – 20-1: May have needed the Preakness, but I am not sure he has the talent to upset this field. His best chance would be an off track, as his sire Exaggerator loved the slop, and his offspring have shown a strong affinity for wet tracks. May show more early speed today.

3 – Nest – 8-1 – Tons of talent here and the lone filly in the field is a contender vs. a field of mediocre colts. Trainer sprung the Belmont filly upset with Rags to Riches when she beat the mighty Curlin in the 2007 Belmont running.

4 – Rich Strike – 7-2: Sprung a shocker in Louisville and is well rested for his return race. Reportedly, has been working well at the track and will hope for a fast pace to set it for his late kick.

5 – Creative Minister – 6-1: Ran a credible third in the Preakness and has tactical speed in here to get a nice trip. Has the best breeding in the field for the Belmont distance.

6 – Mo Donegal – 5-2: Likely to take money and might go off around 8-5. Comes out of the Derby as an also ran with a less-than-ideal trip that day. The most talented horse in the field is the main danger in today’s race.

7 – Golden Glider – 20-1: 2^nd place finisher in Peter Pan gets a free entry / automatic qualifier for the Belmont so it’s no surprise the connections entered. Looks to be a cut below the main contenders and would need to show improvement for a chance.

8 – Barber Road – 10-1: Looks to be a wise guy horse coming in, which is a bit of surprise as he went post-ward in the Derby at 60-1. Might have a chance to hit the board with the jockey switch and blinkers off, but not high on his chances for the win spot.

Belmont Options

Here are the 4 possible ways to play the Belmont, as I see it, and a look at my preference:

Option 1 – If you think that We the People will be lone speed, and is the best horse in the field, then you will get 5-2 or 3-1 come post time. I am against We the People as my notes and lessons learned (from my database) point me to discounting horses with flattering or inflated Beyer speed figures on wet sealed tracks. I also think his previous races were against very marginal competition at Oaklawn and the runners in those races haven’t come back to do much. Not to mention that the Peter Pan looked like a glorified allowance race as the race favorite that day was coming off a maiden win. There is a case to make that We the People will win by 6 or run up the track and finish off the board. I am taking a stand against this one, though I wouldn’t fault anyone for drinking the kool-aid off of the visually impressive Peter Pan. Note, the Peter Pan is three eights a mile shorter than the Belmont, and not sure the pedigree is there on the dam side to get the distance. VERDICT: Pass (and not including anywhere)

Option 2 – You missed the boat on Rich Strike on Derby Day and are convinced that race was not a fluke, so you want to back him today. I am against this horse as a win bet (I missed the wedding so why go to the funeral). In my view, this is a nice horse who appreciated the surface switch to the dirt and I think it was smart to skip the Preakness. I can’t see taking 7-2 on this horse off one good race, but I do think he is bred for the distance and will be rolling late to grab a share of the exotics. VERDICT: Include underneath

Option 3 – Bet the best horse in the field – Mo Donegal – and take the short odds of 8-5. I was a big fan heading into the Derby and the Trainer has proven the Derby to Belmont path with 3 winners and a boat load of 2^nd place finishers over the years. This horse is well rested, bred for the Belmont distance, and beat the talented Preakness winner in the Wood. Lots to love….except the odds. VERDICT: Pass on win bet, include underneath and perhaps do a Superfecta saver with him on top to get some value.

Option 4 – Take the Pletcher value play (Nest) who will be a viable alternative and offers wagering value in the win pool. Yes, makes sense. This would be my recommendation and the below analysis has the details on the logic for backing this horse. The other value play would be Creative Minister if you are not a Nest fan. VERDICT: Bet the value play (below)

Predicted Order of Finish

3 – Nest – 8-1 – The filly is the value play, though we might lose some as she might go off at 5 or 6 to 1. The three main questions: Does she have the talent? Does she have the breeding for the distance? Will she get the trip? All three are “yes”. The connections have always thought highly of this filly nominating her for the triple crown with the Belmont in mind back in January. Her speed figures fit, and she comes off a nice 2^nd place effort in the Oaks. On that day, she was held up behind horses, and briefly blocked on the turn, as Secret Oath got the jump on her. She was running late that day and the gallop out was really nice. The breeding on her is spectacular for the Belmont by Curlin out of an AP Indy mare, so the distance should not be an issue. But, probably the biggest reason I am on her is the fractions in the Belmont are likely to mimic what she saw in the Ashland Stakes, with 24, 48 and change, and 113. She was mid pack that day and pounced on the turn, and was barely touched late, indicating she had so much left in the tank against a bunch of talented fillies. (I encourage everyone to watch the Ashland replay). I see her getting a similar trip in the Belmont, being tactically placed on the rail in 2^nd or 3^rd flight behind the pacesetters and making a move turning for home. This is a similar trip Jose Ortiz – today’s jock – rode to victory with Tapwrit in the 2017 Belmont. Overall, there are tons to like, and the trainer knows how to get his horses ready for this unique race. In my view, the 2022 filly class was better on a relative scale to their male counterparts and there is no reason to think that this talented filly doesn’t fit with this mediocre group of colts. And to boot, she gets a 5-pound weight allowance, and has the grinding running style that often wins the Belmont.

6 – Mo Donegal – 5-2 (likely 8-5 post time) – The son of Uncle Mo couldn’t work out the trip in the Derby but comes into this well rested and poised to run a big one. Doubters might question his ability to close into a soft pace. To that I say, Sir Winston in 2019 had the same kind of running style. A dead closer who was facing soft fractions. I marked that as a lesson learned and my takeaway was that sometimes the Belmont Stakes are run like turf marathon races. Slower paces and the horse with the ability to finish fast has a great chance to win. Sir Winston was much closer to the pace that day because of the slower fractions and turning for home unleashed his late kick (like a monster turf horse does) to take the money at 10-1. I see something similar in store for Mo Donegal. He won’t be as far back, and he does have the ability to unleash a powerful finish. If Mo was 3-1 I would be all over him for a win bet, but I can’t back him at the suppressed price, as we are losing too much value. He is a must include in all exotics and the main danger to all challengers. I recommend him as the key horse up top in a superfecta saver, to get some value in the event he wins.

5 – Creative Minister – 6-1 – If you want to know who the best horse for the Belmont distance is then  let me introduce you to Creative Minister. Giants Causeway on top and Tapit on the bottom. Dosage of 1.91 confirms this thesis. I thought his Preakness run was decent and there is a chance he moves forward off that effort and will appreciate the extra distance. I do like his chances to hit the board as he could get the trip stalking off the speed and get first run on the closers. On the downside, he is making his 3^rd start in 5 weeks so the rest coming in is not ideal. Overall, though, I will be including in the exotics as he has a great chance to hit the board at anywhere from 6 to 8 to 1.

4 – Rich Strike – 7-2 – Here is another well-bred horse for the distance, as he is by Keen ice out of a Smart Strike Mare. For me, I really do think that skipping the Preakness improves his chances in the Belmont, even though it wasn’t a popular decision in the public’s eye. In my view, the colt has talent, the derby wasn’t a fluke in retrospect, and I think he has a good chance to run 3^rd or 4^th. On the downside, there is a case to be made he is a horse for course at CD and will be pace compromised today. I’ll split the difference and say he is running late to grab a share.

Wagering Preferences

• Big Win bet – Nest
• Exacta Box Nest and Mo Donegal
• Tri Box – Nest, Mo Donegal and Creative Minister
• Super Saver (Mo up top) –6 With 3-5 with 3-4-5 with ALL

Weather Update

The rain system is expected to stay south for the race, so I am expecting a fast track. If it’s wet you can move up Skippy who might have a chance to hit the board. Mo Donegal also moves way up on an off track as he has tons of off-track pedigree on both sides.

Good Luck to all !!!!

Whitey