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Welcome to Derby 149…

Update…

We have 4 horses scratched as of Friday:

Skinner – 9

Practical Move – 10

Lord Miles – 19

Continuar – 20

Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero and King Russell draw in from AE.

So, 19 runners for the Derby.

Impact of a Fluke Last Year

Probably the biggest impact on this year’s Derby is….DEAD MONEY !!!

All of the buzz about an 80-1 shot winning last year will no doubt create a dead money scenario this year where people are reaching for the next derby fluke, which means greater value for the informed public. So, horses that should be 50-1 will be 35-1, etc., etc. And horses who should be 6-1 will go off at 8 or 10 to 1.  In addition to that, our boy Mattress Mack will be shoving 1.5 MM on the race favorite which means his 3-1 ML will turn into 2-1. If you like him, play him on top in other pools like Exacta and Trifecta to get the greatest value.

Pace

Pace looks to be honest as there is a mix of 4 or 5 horses who like to be on or near the lead. Overall, it feels like stalkers and mid-pack runners might have an advantage. The pace will be respectable – I don’t foresee a pace meltdown, nor do I see a pedestrian pace unfolding. Probably 46 and change for a half, 1:11 for three-quarters. Advantage to the runners with tactical speed and can lay close off the leaders. Most likely pace setter is Reincarnate. Friday’s card seemed to favor speed so that might not bode well for the closers.

ML ODDS

So, how did the ML oddsmaker do? Not great, but not terrible. The biggest blunder was Angel of Empire at 8-1. The betting public will be all over that and it wouldn’t surprise me if he is 2^nd choice leaving the gate at 5-1. If there is one certainty on derby day that would be this horse going off BELOW his ML odds. Just about every tom, dick, and harry capper is circling this horse as their top play. Other callouts: Verifying (15-1) will take play down to 11 or 12 to 1. Tapit Trice may drift up from his ML – No one is really talking about him so 5-1 ML could turn into 7-1 at post.

Wise guy Buzz

The biggest wise guy horse is Confidence Game after posting a brilliant workout this week. He will get bet off that 20-1. Two Phils seems to have some buzz even though he is late arrival to the track. People are loving that victory on the synthetic and inflated Beyer number. Disarm may take action as well. Looks good on track. Angel of Empire is everyone’s horse. Sure, he has the talent, but not sure the pedigree is ideal as his dosage is above 9, and I question the runners in the ARK Derby.

Post Draw Analysis

Probably the biggest post impact is a lot of the speed is drawn to the inside gates – Verifying, Confidence Game, Kingsbarns, Reincarnate are all within first 7 stalls. Jace’s Road is the other speed. Biggest negative draw is Tapit Trice who prefers not to be on the inside and will need to work out a trip from the 5 hole to get comfortable during the race. The biggest positive draws are Forte, who drew 15 and will aid his wide sweeping move; Derma Sotogake (17) who has tactical speed and has options heading into the first turn. I also like Two Phils post as he can work out a trip and save ground behind the speed on the first turn.

Top Picks

Here is my top 4 in order of preference:

17 – Derma Sotogake (10 -1) – Sure, this is a polarizing horse to say the least. Doubters will point to the UAE Derby as evidence the horse can’t win. To that, I say – NON-SENSE !! Sure, these UAE runners have a doughnut but when you look at back at the actual chances of these runners per their derby odds, only 1 horse – Mendelssohn – was single digits. Mendelssohn went off at 5-1 that day in 2018 and his race was over 5 seconds after the gates opened as he was pinballed around and broke near last and was racing in the slop, a surface he hated. The case for Derma Sotogake is simple: he almost shattered a track record in his last race. He was barely even touched in the race until the deep stretch. He had a high cruising speed in the race. There is tons of talent here and in addition, his running style and post should be an advantage. The jock can use his early speed to secure a spot near the leaders entering the first turn and if the pace is slow he can go to the lead. If the pace is hot he can sit back a flight or two. He has a tactical edge here as he is already won wire to wire and won coming from off the pace. And to top it off, the Japan runners have been firing all over the world. Another plus is that the pools in Japan are not co-mingled with the states pool so we will likely get the value in 8 to 10 to 1 range. I think he is the 2^nd best horse in the race, and we will likely get 4 times the favorite’s odds. To me, that’s value and would take that every day. My only concern might be the jock who really screwed the pooch last year when he took his horse into a suicidal pace. Lesson learned perhaps?

8 – Mage (15-1) – Talented Good Magic colt is light in seasoning but may be primed for a big race, assuming he can break well, something that has eluded him the last 2 races. Some would say that this horse should have been pointed to the Preakness as he might have been one of the favorites. And, I might be inclined to agree but the fact that they are pointing to this race tells me the connections have confidence. His last race in the Florida Derby was visually impressive as he went from last to first with a wide middle move but came up a length short to the Derby favorite. I have watched a ton of races at Gulfstream over the years and this is not a track that has many of these WOW middle moves and closing runs. The gallop out in that race was nice which may indicate the longer the distance the better. Many may avoid the horse due to the low-profile connections and I would say this trainer is underrated and knows how to get the most out of a horse in long races. In Venezuela, he learned from one of the best Trainers in the world in Laz Barrera. Overall, we have a talented colt here who should love the distance and if the break is clean, he should be able to secure a stalking trip necessary to be in the hunt late. Buyer beware though — this horse tends to break slow and spotting the field five lengths at the start or trying to rally from the back may be a tall order for a horse lacking experience.

15 – Forte (3-1) – Hard to knock this runner and I think he is the deserving favorite. One thing of concern for me is he might not get the pace he needs in front of him to set up his closing run. He has the talent to overcome this and a world-class jock but its possible the pace doesn’t materialize and perhaps the best he can do is clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th? Post draw works for him but a possible wide trip all the way around may not be ideal. Rumors of a leg/foot issue may be a concern as well.

5 – Tapit Trice (5-1) – Like the horse but not sure the inside post helps him. Kind of hoping he flounders today so I can play back in the Belmont at a square price as he has the grinding running style to take down the last leg of the Triple Crown. Still, if he can get to the outside he might be a danger late, and gut feeling is he drifts up in price, offering some value.

Did Anyone Say Pilot to Bombardier?

15 – Sun Thunder (50-1) — My longshot play for a top 4 finish will be a huge number on the tote board, but I think he might be in play for a big race. He was pace compromised in the LA Derby two back and had traffic problems. And rinse and repeat in the blue grass as he was shuffled on the turn and didn’t have the ideal pace set up. He is adding blinkers today which may indicate to me the connections want the horse more forwardly placed, which may work to his advantage. Call it a hunch but with a better trip and some more pace to work with, this underrated jockey can blow up the trifectas and supers.

Three horses draw in from AE – any thoughts?

Cyclone Mischief would have been better served waiting for the Preakness and doesn’t excite me. The Japan runner ran well in the SA Derby, but the field was on the weaker side, and I am not sure 10 furlongs is exactly in the wheel house of a son of Shanghai Bobby. Outside chance to hit the board. King Russell is eligible for NW1X allowance and appears overmatched.

Any longshots that can hit the board?

Disarm may improve with the added distance but will need a hot pace to make noise. Swami play is Kingsbarns – same day coronation in the UK can only help his chances.

Wagering Plays – Budget of 100 bucks

$40 win bet Derma Sotogake (17)

$25  win bet Mage (8)

$2 Exacta box – 17-8-15 = $12

$2 Tri Box – Same = $12

50 cent Trifecta

8-17 with 8-17-15-5-13 with 8-17-15-5-13 = $12

Best of luck to all !!!

Whitey