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Astute blog followers know that the Belmont Stakes is my favorite race of the year as it usually presents great opportunities to make some cash.

We’ve had success over the years and the trend continued last year with the cold deck exacta.

Lets get right to the picks, and my top 4 predicted order of finish:

2 – Tapit Trice – 3-1: The ML seems low and I think we get 4-1 or better as tons of money will come in on Forte and Angel of Empire. The main mistake many cappers make is not being able to toss out a bad race and yes, he threw in a clunker in the Derby. But, all along, this one was being pointed to the Belmont and my hunch is he didn’t like the track at Churchill. But, probably the biggest reason I am on him is the grinding running style — he has that one pace style that favors the marathon Belmont runners and reportedly he has been working well on the track. Has the breeding for the distance by Tapit and stamina on the dam side. To me, the last was a toss, and I had him tabbed as my Belmont winner back in March, so I am not jumping ship at the last minute in a so-so Belmont field.  Only negative is the post draw as he doesn’t like the kick back but in a long race I can see Luis working his way to the outside down the long backstretch to mitigate. Lets take the lay up and the 10 dollar mutual return, and call it a day.

9 – Red Route One – 15-1: Doesn’t check many of the boxes I look for in a Belmont runner having raced a ton in 2023 and has that closing style that’s over-rated in the Belmont. But, as I dig deeper, and go back into the time machine of Belmont Lessons learned — He fits the profile of a Sir Winston – who I liked in the Belmont but didn’t pull the trigger as I was afraid the closing style would hurt him. Could be similar set up, where he is closer to the pace like he was in the Preakness, and explodes late. That’s exactly what Sir Winston did and he fits the same late pace profile – very strong late pace figs and the race set up that day like a turf race where the fastest finisher won. And to top it off, the pedigree is A++ for the distance. Gun Runner up top with stamina influences Tapit and Kris S on the dam side. And, we get Rosario in the saddle, the same jock who rode Sir Winston to victory in 2018.

6 – Forte – 5-2: Likely favorite was a late derby scratch with a foot issue. Probably the one to beat but coming off the layoff may be overbet. Not sure the running style works to his advantage with the uncertain pace scenario. But probably the biggest red flag for me is the breeding. I think the mile and a half is not in the wheel house, as Violence has the profile of a one turn miler as a sire. Yes, he has some stamina on the bottom with Blame but as the race favorite, there is no way I can pick this one on top with the question marks with pedigree, fitness, and running style. Could clunk up for 3^rd and that’s the way I’ll play him.

3 – Arcangelo – 8-1: Like the Peter Pan win but honestly the field was pretty weak, but he did look great doing it and loved the grit in the stretch. Breeding is good for the Belmont distance and I think he can get a share of the money here if the trip works out. Great underneath candidate.

Other runners:

The 1 looks to be a possible rabbit for his two stable mates. If he had Lasix on I might be intrigued as Ortiz is a master on front runners. I may be inclined to throw underneath on some tickets as he may hang around and hit the board, Big step up in class and not sure he is ready at this level but I still wouldn’t be surprised if he hit the board.

The 4 got a gift in the Preakness when the jock of coffeewithchris ceded the easy lead to him. He will take action at the window being a Baffert runner but I am not a fan of the win in the watered-down Preakness.

The 8 Angel of Empire will be way overbet here as the distance is not ideal with To Honor and Serve and Carson City on the bottom of the pedigree. I’ll be playing against as many Derby lovers will be coming back for an encore bet.

The 7 has all the makings of a wise guy horse who will take play. I am not really a fan but wouldn’t talk anyone off him.

The 5 doesn’t belong and may try to add some spice to the pace.

Wagering

Here is how I would spend 100 bucks

$60 to win 2

$10 saver to win on 9

$10 EX box 2-9

$2Tri box 2-9-6

Good Luck !!