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As of this writing, we are more than 3 weeks out from Derby 2024 and I am taking a different approach with an early post for this year’s Derby.

Primarily, the change in tactics is due to the fact that I have already made up my mind on the race, as there are two standouts that will likely be co-favorites and look like locks to hit the board, barring any late scratches or defections.

And secondly, there is a longshot I like to hit the board and would like to avoid paralysis by analysis, and risking changing my mind, or somehow thinking that a less than ideal post position or bad workout would change my mind.

And lastly, it’s safe to assume the “early call” is a sign of confidence. Or, possibly a donkey move in the worst case scenario. So, if you are an avid blog follower, double the bets because for the first time, let’s go on record well in advance and post this year’s derby TRIFECTA !!!

The three horses most likely to hit the board are:

1 – Fierceness – Smashing of winner of FLA Derby looked like a monster crushing his foes that day and he has an advantage of being forwardly placed, and avoiding trouble. In my mind, he is the most likely winner. Projected off odds (5-2).

2 – Sierra Leone – This horse was very impressive in the blue grass as he rallied from well of the pace when speed was holding all day, and the rail was the best place to be (he was wide). The 2.3 million purchase could give trainer Chad Brown his first Derby victory, but will need to work out a trip. Projected off odds (3-1).

3 – Honor Marie – I have been high on this horse since last fall and he will come into the race as a live longshot. The breeding is fantastic for the derby distance, and he absolutely loves it at Churchill, having notched 2 wins from 3 starts, including the KY Jockey club stakes. He ran a credible 2^nd in the LA Derby and is poised to take a giant leap forward on derby day. He will be my key horse in the exotics to hit the board underneath at a big price. Projected off odds (25-1).

In the event one of the 3 scratch before the race, my alternate selection will be:

Catching Freedom – Winner of the LA Derby has much underrated Constitution as his sire and Brad Cox should have him ready to run. Projected off odds (12-1)

Obviously no post position numbers yet but my wagers will look something like:

• BIG TRI BOX
  • Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
• Ex box
  • Fierceness, Honor Marie
  • Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
• Small win bet:
  • Honor Marie

Given that one of the two favorites are expected to win, I would tread lightly on win bets and look to capture value with the EX or TRI with Honor Marie, or any long shot that you might like.

Good Luck!!!

Ponycapper