Friday, May 3rd, 2024...6:38 am

Creating Value With Oaks – Derby Double

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Let’s try and parlay two well meant favorites in the Derby with some standouts in the OAKS to try and juice up the payouts, and make it back to back years of Oaks-Derby double success.

The two Oaks standouts for me are:

13 – Just FYI

11 – Ways and Means

Both of these horses would move way up on an off track and even on a dry track are still the main contenders and horses to beat in the 150th running of the Oaks.

Just FYI’s return race in the Ashland last month was clearly a prep for today’s race as she was absolutely cold on the tote board in a suspect field. She raced wide all the way around the course and was 4-5 wide turning for home. There was an extreme rail and speed bias the first few days of the Keeneland meet and she was compromised on both fronts.

Just FYI has 2 Grade 1 wins on the resume including the Breeders cup last year. The horse moves way up on an off track as she has a win in the slop and has tremendous off track breeding.

Feels like 9-2 is a bit of a gift so perhaps the number is 7-2 come post.

Ways and Means had one of the worst Irad rides last time at GP. She made a 6 wide middle move in the race, a move that rarely works out or results in a victory. She did run well to finish 2nd, and is one of the most talented fillies in the field. You can also make an argument that the race was a glorified prep with the Oaks being the target all along, and with a new pilot in Tyler G, I can see her having a great chance turning for home.

Some underneath horses to consider are the 5, Thorpedo Anna, and a longshot filly, the 10 Into Champagne.

My official Oaks order of finish predictions:

  1. 13 – Just FYI
  2. 11 – Ways and Means
  3. 5 – Torpedo Anna
  4. 10 – Into Champagne

So Lets play a weighted Oaks-Derby Double as follows:

Top choices:

Just FYI and Fierceness

2nd choices

Ways and Means and Sierra Leone

Structure as follows:

  • $25 double – Just FYI / Fierceness
  • $15 double – Just FYI / Sierra Leone
  • $15 double – Ways and Means / Fierceness
  • $10 double – Ways and Means / Sierra Leone

If we connect, the $65 investment should net anywhere between $400 to $600 depending on the winning combo.

To me, this is a nice alternative for creating value if you are considering straight win bets on either of the two Derby favorites.

Good Luck !!

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