Capper's Corner

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Looks like we have another watered-down Preakness field and if we are looking at this objectively, it is not a great betting race.

Muth was the ML favorite and he is SCRATCHED.

Along with his defection, the pace should be slower. The only speed horses left in the field are the Baffert horse, Imagination, and Just Steel.

Those two should hook up early, but will give the edge to Imagination to win the pace battle.

The best horse in the field is Mystik Dan who comes off a dream trip in the derby. He will be the deserving favorite.

The horse with an outside chance to ruin the party at a price is Uncle Heavy. He had a dreadful trip in the Wood as he broke slow and was wide that day when the rail was the place to be. I can see him running well, and with a top Jock on board, I envision he will ride the rails and hope to sneak through at the top of the lane if the pace falls apart. We won’t get the ML price of 20-1, but anywhere in the 10 or 12 to 1 range should be fair.

I will be treading lightly and live to fight another day, but for now, let’s do a small to medium win bet on the deuce, Uncle Heavy, and then will do a TRI BOX 2-5-9 – Uncle Heavy, Mystik Dan, Imagination.

Note, there is a decent chance of rain early in the day, and if we get any kind of rain past 4 pm then the track condition could be muddy or good.

That would actually help the 2 as he has two wins in the slop. If the track is wet I would advise doing an extra trifecta bet with the 2-5-8 box as the 8 would really move up in the off-going.

Good Luck

Ponycapper