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Welcome to Belmont 2024

We have 10 runners today and this year’s rendition sees a venue change to Saratoga as Belmont is down for repairs.

This is a major development as:

The distance has been reduced to one mile and one quarter which is a quarter mile less than the normal distance for this race.

Additionally the tighter turns at Saratoga replace the wider sweeping turns at Belmont.

What does it all mean…probably not much but I will be reducing reliance on distance pedigree due to the shorter race.

Here is how I break down the race:

I am going to toss the two horses who ran on derby day and Preakness day, as its really tough to perform at a high level in the 3^rd race in 5 weeks. SO Mystic Dan and Seize the Grey are downgraded.

Leaning against the two Pletcher outsiders in Antiquarian and Protective, as they seem a cut below and represent the barns 2^nd stringers. Protective has an outside chance to hit the board as a longshot as he had a tough trip in the Peter Pan. If this was a mile and a half I would probably upgrade both runners chances.

The Wine Steward is a gritty NY bred that always seem to show up but he may be a cut below these and I don’t think the stretch out in distance does him any favors. He does have a nice win over the track. But, leaning against.

And, that brings me to Mindframe….who epitomizes boom or bust outcomes. This is a tough call because I can see him winning by 6 or getting trounced, probably nothing in between. He is a buzz horse, hails from a good barn, and has tons of talent, so it would be dangerous to exclude this guy. But, I am probably leaning against even though it’s a tough call. This would only be his 3^rd start and he really beat a soft allowance field last time while setting comfortable fractions. In his debut, he was impressive and the speed fig was awesome but he got the perfect trip that day. To me it kind of feels like a sucker bet and the fact he is coming off Lasix gives me pause to back him at a short price, as he will be way overbet.

As far as race set up I don’t see much speed in the race on paper so that will benefit the front runners and speed did fairly well on the Friday card.

Advantage front runners and stalkers.

Which leads me to my top 2:

I am going to go Dornach (6 horse, 15-1 ML) here as I think his trip in Derby was brutal and has every right to bounce back today with his tactical speed advantage. Has tons of talent and he can be either on the lead or sit right off the 1 horse. He benefits the most with today’s reduced distance in the Belmont, from the normal distance.

My 2^nd choice is Resilience (2 horse, 10-1 ML) as he had showed signs of improvement in the Derby, making an 8 wide move on the final turn. He is definitely headed in the right direction since the blinkers were added and I really like the potential for a great trip, with tactical speed in 2^nd flight while saving ground. He will be pushing his limits for distance here but he is another that benefits from the distance reduction at Saratoga. Trainer is not one to take triple crown shots so part of the logic is putting faith in the connections and their level of confidence.

Rounding out the top 4:

Sierra Leone (9 horse, 9-5 ML) was a tough luck loser in the derby and gets a huge jockey upgrade today as Prat is the best rider in the country. May not get the dream set up with a slower pace today but overall he should be running late, and is the deserving favorite. Main danger to ruin our Belmont party.

And then to round out the super, Honor Marie (8 horse, 12-1 ML) can definitely clunk up for 4^th, and has an outside chance to blow up the board in a meltdown scenario. He had a terrible trip and gets a big jock upgrade. Has tons of hidden talent just needs a better trip and pace set up to make noise.

Wagering:

Big win bet on Dornach

Small win bet on Resilience

And lets box up a trifecta with the 4 runners – 2-6-8-9

Good Luck

Whitey